Tropical TS Jerry

[Ollie Williams]

The GFS says Jerry does Fujiwhara with Lorenzo and is now way south of 12z

 

[Ollie Williams]

Wow! After doing the Fujiwara, moving east, then stalling, Jerry is drifting southwest.

 

[Ollie Williams]

GEFS has Jerry looping back south west.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Looks like another J storm that could stick around for weeks to come and do nothing. I mean just look at Jose in 2017.

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: Karen outlives Jerry
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 68.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2019 0 28.9N 68.4W 993 44
1200UTC 24.09.2019 12 30.1N 69.1W 992 37
0000UTC 25.09.2019 24 30.7N 68.7W 996 31
1200UTC 25.09.2019 36 31.4N 67.5W 999 30
0000UTC 26.09.2019 48 31.7N 65.9W 1002 26
1200UTC 26.09.2019 60 31.9N 65.4W 1004 26
0000UTC 27.09.2019 72 32.5N 65.7W 1005 25
1200UTC 27.09.2019 84 32.0N 65.8W 1007 30
0000UTC 28.09.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

 

[GaWx]

Satellite loops indicate Jerry may be moving NW or even WNW on the NE side of an upper low vs the NNW prog for at least the time being. If so, he's likely moving west of the NHC track and just about all models. If this continues much longer, he MAY get into a position where the risk of getting left behind increases. If so, what might this mean for both Jerry and Karen??

 

[Shaggy]

Satellite loops indicate Jerry may be moving NW or even WNW on the NE side of an upper low vs the NNW prog for at least the time being. If so, he's likely moving west of the NHC track and just about all models. If this continues much longer, he MAY get into a position where the risk of getting left behind increases. If so, what might this mean for both Jerry and Karen??

Not to sound cliche but these storms have had a mind of their own this year. The models have had some hard times with a few of these storms and Jerry is just another example.

 

[Metwannabe]

Jerry is completely devoid of any convection, just spinning it's naked wheels in one spot.... doesn't appear to be moving but if it does not generate any convection I'm not sure how it last too much longer.

I may be wrong but any model showing Jerry absorbing Karen is off it's rocker unless something changes drastically

 

[Metwannabe]

ICON, Jerry gulps down Karen stalls then turns west..... ok

 

[accu35]

12z Euro: Based on hour 84, I expect a S FL hit later on this run, possibly south of the 0Z.

Gfs sweeps it OTS combines with cold front, Euro, another story lol.

 

[GaWx]

Oh cr*p, I posted all of these in the wrong thread. Would it be possible for you to move my prior 3 posts to the Karen thread?

 

[Metwannabe]

Oh cr*p, I posted all of these in the wrong thread. Would it be possible for you to move my prior 3 posts to the Karen thread?

Done

 

[Metwannabe]

Don't look Ethel!!