• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical TS Henri

Snowfan

Snowfan

El Nina stinks
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
9,534
Reaction score
8,238
Location
Not telling
This is what was @GaWx talking about earlier.
A small area of low pressure associated with disorganized showers
and thunderstorms has developed more than 200 miles north-northeast
of Bermuda. Some gradual development is possible over this weekend
into early next week as this system drifts slowly southward near
Bermuda over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Click to expand...
 
The 0Z Euro ens says the US E coast may have to watch 96L in about a week as all of those members offshore the SE are from 96L (out of 51 members though):

2tbUJK7.png
 
Last edited:
Any potential east coast threat from 96L may be higher early next week vs late this week. The 6Z Euro ens is similar to the 0Z with again a handful of threatening members out of 51. So, though not a high threat right now (6Z GEFS still says hardly any threat from this), it will be interesting to see whether or not this later evolves into a significant threat, especially NC north:

2A085961-2184-48CB-8547-DC2499AAF3CF.png
 
1. The NHC has increased the TC genesis odds to 40%/orange
2. The 12Z Euro ens is back to this being hardly any threat to the US.
 
Henri?

Updated: Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm
activity has become better organized this afternoon in association
with a small but well-defined area of low pressure located about
160 miles northeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for continued development, and if these development
trends continue, a tropical depression could form tonight while the
low moves slowly to the south or south-southwest at about 5 mph,
near or to the east of Bermuda. By Tuesday, upper-level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system,
and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for that island
later tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that showers
and thunderstorms associated with a small but well-defined area of
low pressure located northeast of Bermuda have continued to become
better organized during the past few hours. If this trend continues,
advisories will likely be initiated on a new tropical depression
later tonight. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the
south or southwest during the next day or so, and then turn westward
on Tuesday, passing near or just east and south of Bermuda.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system,
and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for that island
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Click to expand...
PTC 8?
 
Here's the end of the 18Z Euro. It would likely recurve rather sharply soon after because the 500 mb ridge is then weakening rapidly and prior Euro runs did recurve it then. However, this run is the strongest yet and it is the furthest west. So, even though odds per current models strongly favor a safe recurve, the more important thing here to note may be the Euro trend meaning what will future runs do. Also, how does Grace affect the steering, a possible fly in the ointment?

Also, let's see what the 18Z Euro ens members do. The 0Z and 6Z both had a handful of E coast threats (5-10% of the members). Then the 12Z pretty much backed off.

ecmop_18_h500_gc_h_0090.png
 
GaWx said:
Here's the end of the 18Z Euro. It would likely recurve rather sharply soon after because the 500 mb ridge is then weakening rapidly and prior Euro runs did recurve it then. However, this run is the strongest yet and it is the furthest west. So, even though odds per current models strongly favor a safe recurve, the more important thing here to note may be the Euro trend meaning what will future runs do. Also, how does Grace affect the steering, a possible fly in the ointment?

Also, let's see what the 18Z Euro ens members do. The 0Z and 6Z both had a handful of E coast threats (5-10% of the members). Then the 12Z pretty much backed off.

View attachment 88355
Click to expand...
Larry, do you think 96L could change Grace track?
 
accu35 said:
Larry, do you think 96L could change Grace track?
Click to expand...

1. Neither is in a vacuum. So, they can change each other's tracks in some unpredictable ways, especially since they'd be only ~1,000 miles apart.

2. The 18Z Euro ens goes back to having a few US threats from 96L, similar to the 0Z and 6Z, with 3 members showing a TS+ moving toward the SE US at the end of the run though keep in mind that's only 6% of the members thus making them outliers:

ecmen_18_mslps_gc_h_0144.png
 
My take on 96L. Keep a close eye on its intensity the next few days, because that will have a big part to play in determining how close this eventually gets to the SE US. The stronger trends in the short-term we've seen today have made the more threatening scenario a tad more likely, but way too early to know


 
Brent said:
Still no advisory
Click to expand...
Perhaps they could be running a bit late.
EDIT: it's up.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 160300
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AND NEARBY WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 62.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
Click to expand...
Graphic:
030223_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Last edited:
Beyond 72 h, the track and intensity models diverge quickly. The
HWRF and COAMPS-TC models rapidly intensify the system to major
hurricane strength. A stronger, deeper vortex would likely be
steered generally westward through the end of the forecast period,
influenced by a deeper-layer steering flow. However, the global
models have a much weaker, shallower system which turns northward,
and then possibly accelerates northeastward by day 5. As a result,
the spread in the track guidance is nearly 800 n mi by day 5, with
the GFS and HWRF taking the extreme positions to the northeast and
southwest, respectively. The official track forecast takes a middle
approach, and is between the various consensus aids at days 4 and
5. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly more conservative, and is
below the consensus at the end of the period. Significant changes
to the forecast may be required in subsequent advisory packages.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top