Tropical TS Helene

[vtrap90]

00z runs are very aggressive. Some are 920mb at landfall. Recon plane is entering the storm right now.

 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro coming in significantly stronger into the Big Bend at 961 mb! It keeps getting stronger with each run.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

0Z Euro coming in significantly stronger into the Big Bend at 961 mb! It keeps getting stronger with each run.

It's east of ATL too! Slightly west then the other models but joins the east of ATL trend. CMC is on its own I guess with the west trend.

 

[jrips27]

0Z Euro coming in significantly stronger into the Big Bend at 961 mb! It keeps getting stronger with each run.

 

[vtrap90]

00z runs are very aggressive. Some are 920mb at landfall. Recon plane is entering the storm right now.

2am EST Recon found 986mb at the center.

 

[GaWx]

View attachment 151726

It looks like the 0Z Euro has the center crossing Gwinnett County. The distance from landfall position to E of ATL is ~250 miles and it gets there in only 9 hours. That works out to an average of a whopping 28 mph, among the fastest on record for that area! To compare, the very fast moving Opal averaged no more than ~25 mph. Eloise of 1975, which also brought damaging winds well inland to W GA, averaged at ~29 mph.

 

[jrips27]

SPC has added an enhanced risk for tornadoes on Day 2. Heads up Larry!

 

[BufordWX]

SPC added 2% tornado risk from SE Alabama into the Weatern Carolinas on new day 1 outlook.

 

[Downeastnc]

Timing sucks with it landfalling at or right after dark Thursday, nighttime canes are the worst.....

 

[Weatherlover92]

PRE is gradually starting to set up across AL/GA ahead of Helene. Also I noticed in their app that TWC has gotten more aggressive on the rainfall totals here. 8-12 inches from tomorrow through Thursday night. Not anything that wasn’t a likely possibility, but compared to when I checked this morning I don’t think they were forecasting even half of that. https://radar.weather.gov/?settings...jYWxTdGF0aW9ucyI6MC44LCJuYXRpb25hbCI6MC42fX0=

 

[BufordWX]

Latest forecast from WPC showing swath of double digit rainfall totals.

 

[jrips27]

Latest forecast from WPC showing swath of double digit rainfall totals.

Wow. Having trouble sleeping tonight with everything going on! Good to have you back in Georgia my man

 

[jrips27]

Biggest piece of the puzzle for the next 12 hours is can the center stay over water. Anytime spent over land could disrupt whatever beginning of a core it possesses.

 

[Nerman]

It looks like the 0Z Euro has the center crossing Gwinnett County. The distance from landfall position to E of ATL is ~250 miles and it gets there in only 9 hours. That works out to an average of a whopping 28 mph, among the fastest on record for that area! To compare, the very fast moving Opal averaged no more than ~25 mph. Eloise of 1975, which also brought damaging winds well inland to W GA, averaged at ~29 mph.

That track would put Lake Lanier on the NE edge of the eye.

 

[HugeSnowStick]

 

[Nerman]

Moving over the Yucatan

 

[Snow_chaser]

The cluster looks like it has shifted west yet some more.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_latest.png

 

[SnowwxAtl]

View attachment 151737

As a hurricane over southwestern GA at 1a Friday...just insane...wow wow wow!

 

[Arcc]

The cluster looks like it has shifted west yet some more.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_latest.png

I’d hate to be NHC right now, on one hand the Euro which is dang hard to beat at this stage and then again you have above.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

I’d hate to be NHC right now, on one hand the Euro which is dang hard to beat at this stage and then again you have above.

And then the 06Z ICON & GFS is still well east of the NHC track. GFS was a tid weaker with Helene than ICON.