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Tropical TS Gonzalo

So I suppose the Euro is saying stronger equals more north huh.....

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Those stronger, further north tracks are not for TD 7 but rather are for a later TC that doesn’t even exist as of now and that is not projected to move off Africa for a few more days. All of the 12Z and 18Z EPS as well as 12Z and 18Z GEFS and 12Z CMC ens are weak/unimpressive anywhere before the W Caribbean. Of course, they’re also largely under-initializing TD7. So, we’ll see whether or not these ensemble members are weak only because of this weak initializing.
 
This is probably one of the most organized tropical depressions I've ever seen. Keep in mind that for a TC that's half of normal size for example, the same amount of latent heating from moist convection will produce 4x the amount of surface pressure falls, these systems spin up very quickly and I wouldn't be shocked if this becomes a hurricane in 24-36 hours.
 
This is probably one of the most organized tropical depressions I've ever seen. Keep in mind that for a TC that's half of normal size for example, the same amount of latent heating from moist convection will produce 4x the amount of surface pressure falls, these systems spin up very quickly and I wouldn't be shocked if this becomes a hurricane in 24-36 hours.

I was just thinking what if the HWRF/HMON verify lol

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Tropical depressions usually don't have primitive eyewalls. Once this is complete, TD 7 could experience rapid intensification

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NHC is such a joke at times with this stuff... it clearly has been a TS for awhile now and at 11am it looks like they're going to bump this up to 55kts. I don't know why they are so slow with upgrading these far out systems and ignoring the scientific data and then they realize their mistake and have to make a huge jump like this. It is looking more and more like the HWRF and HMON idea of a hurricane are on track.
 
NHC is such a joke at times with this stuff... it clearly has been a TS for awhile now and at 11am it looks like they're going to bump this up to 55kts. I don't know why they are so slow with upgrading these far out systems and ignoring the scientific data and then they realize their mistake and have to make a huge jump like this. It is looking more and more like the HWRF and HMON idea of a hurricane are on track.

Yeah if I were in the islands I'd be getting prepared. It is a small system so that's good. Good thing forthe US is that it's pretty deep in the tropics.
 
Probably stay south of the Windward and Leeward Islands and then track into south/central Mexico or Central America.

Yeah the weak 06z GFS seems to dissipate the energy near Hispaniola. I think theres room for minor shakeups in the models when they pick up on actual strength. Still it's way down there and would take some serious and wholesale model changes to threaten the US.
 
Probably stay south of the Windward and Leeward Islands and then track into south/central Mexico or Central America.

All I know is it will most likely not hit NC wit ha name like Gonzalo, we only get storms with names like Fran. Bertha, Floyd, Irene etc....
 
Pattern does not favor a US hit from the Gulf or Atlantic. Yea It’s early to say, and some will say otherwise, but I would watch Central America up into Mexico closely. Small chance for Texas.
 
He looks rather healthy at this time. Gonna be fun to watch how this unfolds being that the globals all have a weak or dissipating storm in 5 days.

Still may open up into a tropical wave axis in the central Caribbean but it may be an usual situation where the max winds on the northern end of the wave are unusually strong
 
New advisory is out we are up to 45 knots and now a hurricane is being explicitly forecast.

I found this part of the discussion interesting. Could the reason the GFS, Euro and UK are showing a weaker system be simply due to the smaller size of the system and they are unable to properly resolve it and how it interacts with the large scale environment? I believe I've seen this as an issue in the past with small systems like this where the HWRF/HMON and SHIPS based guidance was closer to reality vs the global suite.

"The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low
confidence. On one side, the cyclone has been strengthening quickly
and the good organization suggests additional, and possibly rapid,
strengthening should occur. In addition, the SHIPS-based guidance
and the HWRF make the system a hurricane and keep that intensity
through 120 h. On the other side, the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and
Canadian models are not big fans of this system, as they all
forecast it to either be a weak low or dissipated by 120 h, possibly
due to dry air entrainment and large-scale subsidence.
The NHC
intensity forecast again compromises between these extremes, showing
Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in 36-48 h, followed by weakening in
deference to the global models. The new intensity forecast has
significantly higher intensities than the previous forecast for most
of the forecast period based on the recent intensification. As
noted before, the small size of this system makes it susceptible to
significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward."
 
He looks rather healthy at this time. Gonna be fun to watch how this unfolds being that the globals all have a weak or dissipating storm in 5 days.

Yeah looking healthy this AM for sure, I wouldn't be surprised to see this making a run at a cat 2 or 3 storm in the next 36 hours. These small storms usually ramp up quicker than forecast... and as long as it walls off the dry air effectively it has plenty of time to really ramp up into a significant hurricane.
 
I say it’s a hurricane before hitting the islands then Gets shredded in the east Caribbean graveyard like most storms do..before maybe trying again near Brazil.
 
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