New advisory is out we are up to 45 knots and now a hurricane is being explicitly forecast.
I found this part of the discussion interesting. Could the reason the GFS, Euro and UK are showing a weaker system be simply due to the smaller size of the system and they are unable to properly resolve it and how it interacts with the large scale environment? I believe I've seen this as an issue in the past with small systems like this where the HWRF/HMON and SHIPS based guidance was closer to reality vs the global suite.
"The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low
confidence. On one side, the cyclone has been strengthening quickly
and the good organization suggests additional, and possibly rapid,
strengthening should occur. In addition, the
SHIPS-based guidance
and the HWRF make the system a hurricane and keep that intensity
through 120 h. On the other side, the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and
Canadian models are not big fans of this system, as they all
forecast it to either be a weak low or dissipated by 120 h, possibly
due to dry air entrainment and large-scale subsidence. The NHC
intensity forecast again compromises between these extremes, showing
Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in 36-48 h, followed by weakening in
deference to the global models. The new intensity forecast has
significantly higher intensities than the previous forecast for most
of the forecast period based on the recent intensification. As
noted before, the small size of this system makes it susceptible to
significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward."