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Tropical TS Erin

Ross said:
while i know what you mean, should be noted that this was 7 years ago and models have indeed improved a little and newer hurricane models have been introduced since then- in some cases probably to better prognosticate storms like michael
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In more recent memory....Helene hit South GA at 100 mph. Valdosta GA, my family is there, was demolished. It was supposed to go up the west side of the state to Atlanta. It goes the east side of the state and destroys Augusta, then takes out NC.
No, respectfully disagree, it hasn't gotten any better.
 
Wonder if that ridge over the US/Can would have been able to flex more without that little trough embedded in the middle over MN/WI, and make it even harder for her to turn north. Atlantic ridge flex/bridge with CONUS ridge had more to do with the western shift this run, but could be something to watch
1755109373031.png
 
If that Euro run were to verify, you could actually prob argue for hurricane warnings on the OBX. Was thinking so privately, and just saw a met on storm2k say there'd probably be hurricane force gusts there with this track.

Def a yikes, and I will say the GFS seems a bit out to lunch for now with how low Erin is tracking. She's probably just a bit above 16N.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Wonder if that ridge over the US/Can would have been able to flex more without that little trough embedded in the middle over MN/WI, and make it even harder for her to turn north. Atlantic ridge flex/bridge with CONUS ridge had more to do with the western shift this run, but could be something to watch
View attachment 174211
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To your point, 4 days ago Euro AI published this 8/9 00z.
Edit: just read the post from Webb. This also demonstrates what he is saying.


ec-aifs_mslpa_atl_47.png

ec-aifs_mslpa_atl_52.png
 
jackendrickwx said:
Wonder if that ridge over the US/Can would have been able to flex more without that little trough embedded in the middle over MN/WI, and make it even harder for her to turn north. Atlantic ridge flex/bridge with CONUS ridge had more to do with the western shift this run, but could be something to watch
View attachment 174211
Click to expand...
The central Canadian ridge appears to be flatter at 12Z, allowing the trough in SE Canada to move more west-east instead of more north-south vs the 0Z run. May have to do with the very thing you suggested.

Lots to watch, but quite often this season, those troughs have had no trouble making it into the NE, which would be the saving grace here.

ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-z500_anom-5626400-1.png
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-z500_anom-5626400.png
 
Rain Cold said:
The central Canadian ridge appears to be flatter at 12Z, allowing the trough in SE Canada to move more west-east instead of more north-south vs the 0Z run. May have to do with the very thing you suggested.

Lots to watch, but quite often this season, those troughs have had no trouble making it into the NE, which would be the saving grace here.

View attachment 174214
View attachment 174215
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Will be worth watching trend on the PNW/GOA low’s strength as well as that can impact the ridge downstream
 
From elsewhere: all progging majors

12z, August 13, hurricane model blend, Erin

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 944mb/117kt
HMON = 952mb/115kt
HAFS-A = 932mb/126kt
HAFS-B = 928mb/127kt
 
GaWx said:
From elsewhere: all progging majors

12z, August 13, hurricane model blend, Erin

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 944mb/117kt
HMON = 952mb/115kt
HAFS-A = 932mb/126kt
HAFS-B = 928mb/127kt
Click to expand...
HAFS-A and B consistent with Icon
The other 2 consistent with Euro and Euro AI
 
Some things never change. If you routinely use the GFS for tropical forecasting, I admire you.
gfs-deterministic-exatl-z500_norm_anom-1755108000-1755637200-1755637200-20.gif

The Euro is definitely concerning. The escape hatch is narrowing, but it isn't closed. 6 days out, we know synoptically things are going to change and certainly storm scale will as well. The retreating of the upper low is a major reversal in trends and likely portends real trouble if that holds.
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-z500_norm_anom-1755086400-1755604800-1755604800-20.gif
 
Last edited:
0Z UKMET is similar to 12Z with recurve at 71.7W

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 45.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.08.2025 0 16.4N 45.8W 1007 31
1200UTC 14.08.2025 12 16.7N 48.8W 1006 31
0000UTC 15.08.2025 24 17.8N 51.8W 1006 32
1200UTC 15.08.2025 36 19.0N 55.5W 1006 32
0000UTC 16.08.2025 48 20.0N 58.9W 1005 33
1200UTC 16.08.2025 60 20.5N 62.6W 1002 33
0000UTC 17.08.2025 72 20.4N 65.4W 999 32
1200UTC 17.08.2025 84 20.6N 67.2W 997 34
0000UTC 18.08.2025 96 22.3N 68.2W 994 40
1200UTC 18.08.2025 108 24.2N 69.6W 992 44
0000UTC 19.08.2025 120 26.1N 70.6W 989 46
1200UTC 19.08.2025 132 27.9N 71.3W 986 50
0000UTC 20.08.2025 144 30.0N 71.7W 982 52
1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 32.5N 71.5W 979 58
0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 35.0N 70.3W 972 62
 
In the 5am discussion

There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what
impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of
the United States, and Bermuda in the long range.

And yes the hurricane hunters are suppose to fly out this evening for the first time
 
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