• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical TS Erin

jrips27 said:
New 11AM. First time that PR is in the cone
View attachment 174167
Click to expand...
If Puerto Rico gets into the potential track for Erin then all bets are off as far as it missing the US east coast. As of now the NHS has it in the edge of the cone but it the southward trend continues, then we may be dealing with something that has more impact than just some rough seas and dangerous rip currents along the beaches.

Years ago, I think it was the late John Hope when he was with the Weather Channel who mentioned that storms that move generally westward across the Atlantic and start their northwestward turn there are almost certain to make landfall on the US East Coast. Erin is still 10-12 days away so there is lots of time before we have any real picture of where it may end up. Most models still show Erin going out to sea.
 
Gotta be careful trusting every south move as if it signals a greater chance at a east coast strike. All this will do is threaten the islands if that trend should continue. As long as an open door like this remains, it's gonna go OTS regardless if it is just north of Cuba or near Bermuda unless it just grinds itself to pieces over PR or the mountains.

ec-aifs_z500_vort_atl_25.png
 
Arcc said:
Gotta be careful trusting every south move as if it signals a greater chance at a east coast strike. All this will do is threaten the islands if that trend should continue. As long as an open door like this remains, it's gonna go OTS regardless if it is just north of Cuba or near Bermuda unless it just grinds itself to pieces over PR or the mountains.

View attachment 174175
Click to expand...
Even the AI is much further east with the recurve now. I suppose if Erin(probably isnt a storm right now) were to just become a clear area it might cruise west but with this pattern in the ATL(a massive trof from the NC coast to the Azores) there is no way this hits any land except only a very very small chance it hits Bermuda.
It still seems awfully dry out there as well.



1755021384975.png
 
Arcc said:
Gotta be careful trusting every south move as if it signals a greater chance at a east coast strike. All this will do is threaten the islands if that trend should continue. As long as an open door like this remains, it's gonna go OTS regardless if it is just north of Cuba or near Bermuda unless it just grinds itself to pieces over PR or the mountains.

View attachment 174175
Click to expand...
Yep. This can get as far south as you want it to but with the western extent of the Atlantic ridge near bermuda it can only go so far west before it either A. Stops B. Turns north.

I would honestly be more concerned about a US hit of this were showing signs of a stall around D7-10 than I am right now
 
0Z UKMET: recurves safely from Conus but further W at 70.3+…so, this would be good news for Bermuda, too:

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 39.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2025 0 16.4N 39.2W 1008 31
1200UTC 13.08.2025 12 15.8N 41.9W 1008 27
0000UTC 14.08.2025 24 15.9N 44.1W 1008 27
1200UTC 14.08.2025 36 16.8N 47.1W 1008 28
0000UTC 15.08.2025 48 18.0N 50.2W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 60 19.0N 53.8W 1007 32
0000UTC 16.08.2025 72 19.7N 57.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 16.08.2025 84 20.3N 60.3W 1003 33
0000UTC 17.08.2025 96 21.0N 62.9W 1001 38
1200UTC 17.08.2025 108 21.7N 65.6W 999 45
0000UTC 18.08.2025 120 22.7N 67.2W 998 43
1200UTC 18.08.2025 132 24.5N 68.3W 996 45
0000UTC 19.08.2025 144 26.6N 69.4W 993 49
1200UTC 19.08.2025 156 28.6N 70.1W 989 48
0000UTC 20.08.2025 168 30.7N 70.3W 984 49
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top