• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical TS Erin

jrips27 said:
New 11AM. First time that PR is in the cone
View attachment 174167
Click to expand...
If Puerto Rico gets into the potential track for Erin then all bets are off as far as it missing the US east coast. As of now the NHS has it in the edge of the cone but it the southward trend continues, then we may be dealing with something that has more impact than just some rough seas and dangerous rip currents along the beaches.

Years ago, I think it was the late John Hope when he was with the Weather Channel who mentioned that storms that move generally westward across the Atlantic and start their northwestward turn there are almost certain to make landfall on the US East Coast. Erin is still 10-12 days away so there is lots of time before we have any real picture of where it may end up. Most models still show Erin going out to sea.
 
Gotta be careful trusting every south move as if it signals a greater chance at a east coast strike. All this will do is threaten the islands if that trend should continue. As long as an open door like this remains, it's gonna go OTS regardless if it is just north of Cuba or near Bermuda unless it just grinds itself to pieces over PR or the mountains.

ec-aifs_z500_vort_atl_25.png
 
Arcc said:
Gotta be careful trusting every south move as if it signals a greater chance at a east coast strike. All this will do is threaten the islands if that trend should continue. As long as an open door like this remains, it's gonna go OTS regardless if it is just north of Cuba or near Bermuda unless it just grinds itself to pieces over PR or the mountains.

View attachment 174175
Click to expand...
Even the AI is much further east with the recurve now. I suppose if Erin(probably isnt a storm right now) were to just become a clear area it might cruise west but with this pattern in the ATL(a massive trof from the NC coast to the Azores) there is no way this hits any land except only a very very small chance it hits Bermuda.
It still seems awfully dry out there as well.



1755021384975.png
 
Arcc said:
Gotta be careful trusting every south move as if it signals a greater chance at a east coast strike. All this will do is threaten the islands if that trend should continue. As long as an open door like this remains, it's gonna go OTS regardless if it is just north of Cuba or near Bermuda unless it just grinds itself to pieces over PR or the mountains.

View attachment 174175
Click to expand...
Yep. This can get as far south as you want it to but with the western extent of the Atlantic ridge near bermuda it can only go so far west before it either A. Stops B. Turns north.

I would honestly be more concerned about a US hit of this were showing signs of a stall around D7-10 than I am right now
 
0Z UKMET: recurves safely from Conus but further W at 70.3+…so, this would be good news for Bermuda, too:

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 39.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2025 0 16.4N 39.2W 1008 31
1200UTC 13.08.2025 12 15.8N 41.9W 1008 27
0000UTC 14.08.2025 24 15.9N 44.1W 1008 27
1200UTC 14.08.2025 36 16.8N 47.1W 1008 28
0000UTC 15.08.2025 48 18.0N 50.2W 1009 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 60 19.0N 53.8W 1007 32
0000UTC 16.08.2025 72 19.7N 57.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 16.08.2025 84 20.3N 60.3W 1003 33
0000UTC 17.08.2025 96 21.0N 62.9W 1001 38
1200UTC 17.08.2025 108 21.7N 65.6W 999 45
0000UTC 18.08.2025 120 22.7N 67.2W 998 43
1200UTC 18.08.2025 132 24.5N 68.3W 996 45
0000UTC 19.08.2025 144 26.6N 69.4W 993 49
1200UTC 19.08.2025 156 28.6N 70.1W 989 48
0000UTC 20.08.2025 168 30.7N 70.3W 984 49
 
Brent said:
Yup I'm telling y'all just be patient... Erin is just the beginning even if it does go OTS
Click to expand...

I’m patient as I’m not lexx and thus wouldn’t have any problem if it were to quiet down for a period after Erin. I’m mentioning this because Euro/GFS ensembles aren’t nearly as active in late Aug as they were for Erin when that was late in the runs. Of course, should it actually be quiet for a week or so after Erin, that wouldn’t necessarily say anything about Sept-Oct. A weak La Niña at least based on RONI doesn’t at all bode well for a quiet Sep-Oct unfortunately.

I’ll continue to follow the Euro Weeklies, which were good with general trends last year out a few weeks. There’s no strong indicator yet as they’re only slightly below the very active 2005-2024 avg for ACE during the 1st half of Sept. as that would still be active.

Back to Erin, which will keep us busy for a week+. The 6Z GFS is similar to the 0Z with a direct Bermuda hit on Aug 20.
 
From another board regarding 6Z tropical models: peaks as a MH on 3 of 4

“06z, August 13, hurricane model blend, Erin

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 944mb/112kt
HMON = 979mb/95kt
HAFS-A = 943mb/119kt
HAFS-B = 939mb/121kt”
 
1300m said:
👀
View attachment 174194
View attachment 174195
View attachment 174196

If the upper low and downstream trough trends flatter / further north, the sharp northward turn may be delayed/less and allow the Atlantic ridge to extend further westward.
Click to expand...

hate that

fwiw the 00z euro ens (non ai) had a tighter dispersion further east than the 12z

of note, if it can get its act together, ensembles show a further south track for erin in the medium term (in contrast to a weaker storm going south in the short term). likely because it feels more of the ridge.

1755093183627.png
(green weaker pink stronger)
 
GaWx said:
From another board regarding 6Z tropical models: peaks as a MH on 3 of 4

“06z, August 13, hurricane model blend, Erin

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 944mb/112kt
HMON = 979mb/95kt
HAFS-A = 943mb/119kt
HAFS-B = 939mb/121kt”
Click to expand...
Intensity forecasting is kinda like shaking a magic 8 ball...
 
Downeastnc said:
Intensity forecasting is kinda like shaking a magic 8 ball...
Click to expand...

Indeed. That’s why I’m showing the 4 together rather than just one (treating it like a small ensemble). And I’m not showing the track as tropical models though not great are better with strength than track, which I prefer globals for. Also, tropicals seem to be a bit better with strength than globals, which are pretty bad with that.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed. That’s why I’m showing the 4 together rather than just one (treating it like a small ensemble). And I’m not showing the track as tropical models though not great are better with strength than track, which I prefer globals for. Also, tropicals seem to be a bit better with strength than globals, which are pretty bad with that.
Click to expand...

I think the models can do ok with intensity if there are things like strong shear or dry air but when conditions are generally favorable they seem to miss a lot both ways to strong or not strong enough etc.
 
Downeastnc said:
I think the models can do ok with intensity if there are things like strong shear or dry air but when conditions are generally favorable they seem to miss a lot both ways to strong or not strong enough etc.
Click to expand...
In recent memory.....as Michael was exploding, the models were showing 970ish.
 
I think in areas where conditions are favorite for RI, I think the hurricane models do better with it.
 
Henry2326 said:
In recent memory.....as Michael was exploding, the models were showing 970ish.
Click to expand...
while i know what you mean, should be noted that this was 7 years ago and models have indeed improved a little and newer hurricane models have been introduced since then- in some cases probably to better prognosticate storms like michael
 
Just a side note that only 36 hours ago they were forecasting erin to go as far south as 17 North she is just now approaching 16 North so that's almost a full degree off in 36 hours and we're still arguing about a 10-day forecast
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
This will be something we need to watch out for..




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah there are both storm scale and synoptic scale trends that will have to be watched over the coming days. Less press from the upper low definitely widens the window for the Atlantic ridge to try to retrograde westward ala Florence. The potential for a closer pass to the east coast has increased today IMO.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top