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Tropical TS Erin

North Atlantic pattern as a whole is a mess. Iceland cutoff and corresponding ridge over the top in a -nao development type progression seems like a big player in opening up a weakness for the early exit. In addition the slow trend away from a stronger system in the PNW will likely mean the subtropical ridge center is biased west and possibly taller so energy would have the ability to dig a little more on the EC
gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_fh216_trend.gif
 
Seasonal pattern seems to be ridging migrating to the SW US. That leads me to believe the highest probability is for a recurve. If that happens, depending on the proximity to the coast, SE Canada needs to be watched for a transitory block.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Wasn't awake for 0z last night, but this is what I should've probably noticed first here over the 6z GFS recurving (edit: and I noticed that the 18z ensemble suite became less certain yesterday). Yikes.

According to the ensemble suite, it seemingly suggests anything from a Florida landfall to a safe recurve is possible. Good luck!
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And the AI suite completely shifted west overnight with operational in the gulf.
 
The one thing that does bother me is the fact that we do have a transient time where we have the climo look for a carolinas hit or maybe even farther SW. If the pattern drags its feet retrograding this is easily a problem compday.jJW_W1FuAw.gifgfs-ens_z500a_nhem_27 (1).png
 
Special TWO

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Updated: Recently received satellite-derived wind data indicate
that a well-defined low pressure system has formed about midway
between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands with
maximum winds of about 35 mph. Although the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity still lacks some organization, only a small
increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a
tropical depression before the low moves near or across the Cabo
Verde Islands tonight and on Monday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday
across the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this system.
 
Brent said:
Special TWO

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Updated: Recently received satellite-derived wind data indicate
that a well-defined low pressure system has formed about midway
between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands with
maximum winds of about 35 mph. Although the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity still lacks some organization, only a small
increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a
tropical depression before the low moves near or across the Cabo
Verde Islands tonight and on Monday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday
across the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this system.
Click to expand...
Yep, Erin in 48 hours.....
 
One thing the models have agreed on is the size of this storm being quite large. Early development probably gives that notion a lot of credence because it will have a long trek to build that wind field and expand it. This means even if a solution like the 06z AI is correct then the winds along a large section of coast would see strong TS and hurricane conditions.

Gonna be an interesting one to track
 
The GFS now looks fishy for 97L while the Euro brings it to Wilmington as a 951mb hurricane before it rides up the NC coastline and out to sea.
Both models are now in more in line with a peak intensity of around 940mb for the GFS and 950mb for the Euro. The Euro has this potential hurricane moving quite a bit slower than the GFS.
 
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For those not familiar with Irma's forecasting, enjoy. 9/1 versus 9/8, landfall 9/10. Possibly will be faced with this uncertainty and why I say 3-5 days prior. Unfortunately weather history repeats, but we have no idea at this point. EURO ensemble.....

gfs-ensemble-sep1.png

gfs-sep4.png

euro-sep5.png

highprob-sep6b.png

highprob-sep8.png
 
Well, that narrows it down more. /s

1754847010777.png

Does seem as if a good handful of members are on board with the weakness near Bermuda slipping future Erin well OTS, but many don't. The most recent refresh does say uncomfortably close for the members that don't go that way, but swing and a miss though involving the GEFS.
 
lexxnchloe said:
3 different scenarios. Euro west about 200 miles but still recurves. AI hits SC. GFS 2 billion miles east of Bermuda. My money is on the GFS but we will see if it comes west at 18Z
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Only way the AI is right with its solution is that it keeps it weak initially. Upper level pattern otherwise is no doubt a zoom OTS with a stronger storm.
 
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This is what I think will end up happening. Stays relatively weak until it gets along the Florida coast then ramps it up as it makes landfall somewhere in Georgia/Sc then makes its turn. Probably a little sharper turn than what I drew but you get the point.IMG_0627.jpeg
 
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Stevo24 said:
This is what I think will end up happening. Stays relatively weak until it gets along the Florida coast then ramps it up as it makes landfall somewhere in Georgia/Sc then makes its turn. Probably a little sharper turn than what I drew but you get the point.
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While not impossible that is a VERY uncommon track historically. You almost need to get something coming in from the east. Dry air gets sucked into these systems on the eastern seaboard when they get close to land unlike on the Gulf so they don't really "ramp up" unless moving away from the coast. Again that's what usually happens but there's always a chance of being surprised.
 
ChrisAMB said:
While not impossible that is a VERY uncommon track historically. You almost need to get something coming in from the east. Dry air gets sucked into these systems on the eastern seaboard when they get close to land unlike on the Gulf so they don't really "ramp up" unless moving away from the coast. Again that's what usually happens but there's always a chance of being surprised.
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Yea, if this isn't wide left, I'd probably look for this to be somewhat Irma-esque, and I've seen some talk about how some ensemble members are suggesting it behaves similarly early in its life cycle.

Though I have seen at least one model run that has a hurricane landfalling in Savannah of all places (although idk if it was involving this future storm) and that would be just my luck after I said that I'd be more concerned about homegrowns from the gulf after Helene over a wave coming off the African coast...
 
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At this time, the only thing the GFS and Euro have in common is they both have a hurricane. Two totally different solutions are in play depending on which model you put your trust in. For those of you who know these models better than I do, which model has the better track record when it comes to tropical weather?
 
12Z UKMET for the record:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.0N 39.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2025 60 18.0N 39.9W 1009 30
1200UTC 13.08.2025 72 17.8N 43.8W 1008 26
0000UTC 14.08.2025 84 19.0N 46.2W 1009 30
1200UTC 14.08.2025 96 20.5N 50.1W 1009 30
0000UTC 15.08.2025 108 21.9N 53.0W 1008 32
1200UTC 15.08.2025 120 23.3N 55.9W 1006 36
0000UTC 16.08.2025 132 24.4N 57.9W 1005 43
1200UTC 16.08.2025 144 25.5N 59.8W 1004 46
0000UTC 17.08.2025 156 26.7N 60.8W 1002 48
1200UTC 17.08.2025 168 28.2N 61.2W 998 52
 
0Z UKMET recurves along 63.3W:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.8N 32.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2025 36 18.1N 35.6W 1008 32
0000UTC 13.08.2025 48 17.5N 39.4W 1007 29
1200UTC 13.08.2025 60 17.9N 42.4W 1007 30
0000UTC 14.08.2025 72 18.8N 45.3W 1007 31
1200UTC 14.08.2025 84 19.9N 48.8W 1007 31
0000UTC 15.08.2025 96 20.5N 51.8W 1006 30
1200UTC 15.08.2025 108 21.0N 54.9W 1005 40
0000UTC 16.08.2025 120 21.7N 57.2W 1004 42
1200UTC 16.08.2025 132 22.8N 60.0W 1003 46
0000UTC 17.08.2025 144 23.9N 61.7W 1003 44
1200UTC 17.08.2025 156 25.7N 63.3W 1003 42
0000UTC 18.08.2025 168 28.1N 63.3W 1003 45
 
Woof these swings are LARGE. With variability like this, there’s no reason to think this is anywhere close to being a slam dunk Out To Sea. That’s the most likely outcome for sure, but hard to have much faith in these models 1754886632057.gif
 
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And trust me guys and Lex even if this storm does recurve the season is just starting. Almost everything last year and most years was well after this date... I don't know how many times I have to say it that things a lot of times get crazy quickly later in the month. The models aren't always gonna see it coming either no matter how many runs you stare at

Heck this storm right now isn't even in that favorable of conditions and it's still developing
 
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jrips27 said:
Woof these swings are LARGE. With variability like this, there’s no reason to think this is anywhere close to being a slam dunk Out To Sea. That’s the most likely outcome for sure, but hard to have much faith in these models View attachment 174114
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Ok, to untrained eyes isn't this a case of how strong the H pressure is to the east? Just from observation of these maps (I know we don't take the maps at face value cause they're never right.) a weak H pressure is turning the storm quicker. Just my two cents from observation.
 
Erin is coming

If these
structural trends continue, the system is likely to become a
tropical depression or storm, possibly as soon as later this
morning
 
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