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Tropical TS Elsa

So Elsa hasn't made it to the gulf yet, there any chance it could go little further west? I here about how it's still on a western movement and could that effect the track? Not wishcasting, just curious.
 
Structurally on satellite Elsa looks pretty good with good banding features and cloud expansion in all quadrants… obviously we’re over land right now so nothing spectacular to look at but once it reaches the gulf .. will be interesting to see how convection could wrap .. or maybe she stays east side lopsided with convection .. tomorrow will be interesting 59FFA2BD-C399-4121-8461-D737681C35F4.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Structurally on satellite Elsa looks pretty good with good banding features and cloud expansion in all quadrants… obviously we’re over land right now so nothing spectacular to look at but once it reaches the gulf .. will be interesting to see how convection could wrap .. or maybe she stays east side lopsided with convection .. tomorrow will be interesting View attachment 86191
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Maybe I’m not as well versed but that looks bad lol. Looks like a blob of tumors or something .
 
GaWx said:
They're pretty much ignoring the out to lunch (imo) 12Z Euro much higher intensity.
Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS continues a GFS run to run trend of a slower movement north offshore W FL.
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We've been here a thousand times, waiting to see which one plays out. The great thing is that location has been consistent for a couple of days and we are talking about minimal damage impact not a cat3 or 4.
 
This is the 12z Euro wind forecast which we can assume is worse case. 50-60 mph winds into South GA.

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Chazwin said:
That makes sense, though I wouldn’t trust any crazy wind maps for inland areas on the EURO. This could make for some issues at coastal areas from the OBX to New England… almost like a nor’easter
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While yes they will probably be worst case scenario winds .. involving a jet streak scenario (which I feel we get a lot of recently) would make gusts and such probably more frequent and give more credence to some possible wind damage mainly from toppling trees that have been sitting in 2-3 inches of rain .. again just something to watch as models come closer to game time .. nothing to worry about as of right now
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
While yes they will probably be worst case scenario winds .. involving a jet streak scenario (which I feel we get a lot of recently) would make gusts and such probably more frequent and give more credence to some possible wind damage mainly from toppling trees that have been sitting in 2-3 inches of rain .. again just something to watch as models come closer to game time .. nothing to worry about as of right now
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Some areas have had a lot of rain and could see some issues with loose soil.
 
The 18z Euro is as expected much weaker than the 12Z in the E GOM. Euro has been awful for Elsa. I almost feel bad for the king.
 
GaWx said:
The 18z Euro is as expected much weaker than the 12Z in the E GOM. Euro has been awful for Elsa. I almost feel bad for the king.
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King seems to really struggle with TC genesis, weak sauce, unorganized tropical entities. Get a wound up storm and normally euro figures it out within 1 to 3 model cycles. I have no data to suport my statement, just a stereotype ive assigned to it watching models while tracking storms over years.
 
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