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Tropical TS Elsa

Gary M said:
I saw the optimistic rainfall forecasts for central NC in the posts above but then I saw this tweet this morning from Brad P indicating basically zero. Thoughts?
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That’s BRad P for you! Ride or die with each model run! Get a better met in your life, like Matthew East, that guy from Shelby, hell, even Birdman is more accurate
 
blueheronNC said:
Great setup Thursday with divergence and shear vector promoting a northwest-of-track precip max across the Piedmont. Green light special.

View attachment 86179
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This is why GSP point forecasts for CLT metro has gone against the WPC and is very different from what Brad P is throwing out there. I’ve said it before, these TC’s always have their heaviest precip to the north and west of the center as they come further inland. If there is much more in the way westward shifts on the models, we may start to see a favorable upslope for the mountains to get heavy rain.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Don’t tell the MEANerator ?? but ukmet joins the party View attachment 86182
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Elsa’s rains will likely give a 1-4” soaking to a significant portion of the SE US similar to what’s being modeled here. This would then reduce even further the chance of a heatwave in the SE this summer. The clock is ticking fast as far as there being enough time left for a widespread summer drought being established since that takes several weeks. Wet soils tend to be self-sustaining.

I can’t complain about this summer at all. I even got a relatively non sweaty walk in last evening at one of the parks. That’s pretty rare here in summer. No, it isn’t anything like the glorious typical summer wx in the CO Rockies that I’ve experienced a number of times. But I’ll take it!
 
So how would we break down model handling up till this point?

I think the gfs did best on genesis and track but ran mostly too strong in the Caribbean.

The euro did poorly with everything except the desheviled disrupted storm in the Caribbean but that was mostly due to land interaction though.

Hwrf is out to lunch on strength......it had a cat 3 at this point which isnt even close.

Am I close?
 
Shaggy said:
So how would we break down model handling up till this point?

I think the gfs did best on genesis and track but ran mostly too strong in the Caribbean.

The euro did poorly with everything except the desheviled disrupted storm in the Caribbean but that was mostly due to land interaction though.

Hwrf is out to lunch on strength......it had a cat 3 at this point which isnt even close.

Am I close?
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I would say that’s pretty good honestly but the HWRF did correct pretty quickly to a lower type system .. I think honestly when you get land interaction with the shredder islands it throws a lot of wrenches in many models performances
 
I’m leaning towards a cat 1 hitting Florida have been since the beginning


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The last 3 Euro runs have Elsa's northward movement considerably slower vs the GFS/CMC but similar to the ICON. If that were to verify, it would mean delayed effects for the SE vs GFS/CMC timing.
 
Henry2326 said:
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1. I'm taking the 12Z Euro's stronger storm with a huge grain. The Euro often tends to be volatile with strength forecasts (this run even significantly strengthened her inland at the FL/GA border...not gonna happen folks) and I expect a weaker solution at one or both of the 18Z/0Z runs. All other major models (GFS/CMC/UKMET/ICON/JMA/NAVGEM) are significantly weaker and the Euro hasn't done well overall with Elsa. Even the often overhyped JMA has her very weak.


2. 12Z UKMET:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 80.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.07.2021 0 21.7N 80.9W 1010 29
0000UTC 06.07.2021 12 23.2N 82.8W 1011 29
1200UTC 06.07.2021 24 25.1N 83.4W 1011 35
0000UTC 07.07.2021 36 27.5N 83.9W 1009 37
1200UTC 07.07.2021 48 29.7N 83.6W 1007 34
0000UTC 08.07.2021 60 32.2N 82.9W 1005 26
1200UTC 08.07.2021 72 34.3N 80.6W 1003 30
0000UTC 09.07.2021 84 36.7N 76.7W 1003 40
1200UTC 09.07.2021 96 39.4N 72.0W 997 47
0000UTC 10.07.2021 108 43.1N 66.4W 996 43
1200UTC 10.07.2021 120 48.0N 59.1W 999 37
0000UTC 11.07.2021 132 53.2N 50.8W 999 33
1200UTC 11.07.2021 144 POST-TROPICAL
 
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