Tropical TS Elsa

[Cary_Snow95]

NHC has designated 97L over the southern portion of the MDR. 20% of development in five days. 10% in 48 hours

 

[Snowfan]

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 800
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde islands has become a little
better organized since yesterday. Additional slow development of
this system is possible during the next several days as it moves
generally west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

an invest has been designated in the eastern Atlantic.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[BirdManDoomW]

My guess is it forms gets a name then dies in the graveyard then reforms to a new name closer to home that way they pad the numbers a little more lmao

 

[Cary_Snow95]

From the forecasted upper air pattern it seems if this does form it’ll likely be a GOM threat

 

[Brent]

modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie ? The hwrf loves this invest lol

 

[accu35]

modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie ? The hwrf loves this invest lolView attachment 85891

Crazy thing is, its not that far off from it reaching closer to the US. I meant its not in the long range. It starts under the 200 hr mark.

 

[Brent]

modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie 95 better get it together or this is gonna be Elsa

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Brent]

Fun fact if Elsa forms in the next few days it'll be a record for early(which was set last year...)


A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that are starting to show some signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable
for development, and a tropical depression could form during the
next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20
mph. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

[Tornadocane]

After a couple of premature tropical cyclones this June, we finally have a notable tropical threat in the Atlantic. At about 9N35W, 97L is producing convection along a trough axis that has shifted from a W-E to SW-NE orientation. Vorticity Images illustrate that the circulation is elongated vertically and horizontally, and it also looks like it is moving a bit too quick for formulation of a concentrated center of circulation. However, there’s certainly been improvement. Could make a run before heading into the SE Caribbean.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Shaggy]

Looks pretty solid for a June invest in the MDR. I see no reason this doesn't become our next named storm.

 

[SD]

Looks pretty solid for a June invest in the MDR. I see no reason this doesn't become our next named storm.

Of course. I'll be at the beach. 1996 is looking more and more like a solid analog September might not be good for us

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Metwannabe]

Looks pretty solid for a June invest in the MDR. I see no reason this doesn't become our next named storm.

No doubt, impressive looking indeed..... nothing to add only agree doesn't look like June.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Avalanche]

Of course. I'll be at the beach. 1996 is looking more and more like a solid analog September might not be good for us

Was that the year that gave us Fran?

 

[Shaggy]

Wasnt it the Euro that struggled bad last year with TC genesis? If I remember correctly the GFS was always first to pick up on a storm.