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Tropical TS Earl

Yeah I feel this is the one. Both the Euro and the GFS are showing something and when the Euro is onboard, I think this maybe a legit threat
 
Snowfan said:
Yeah I feel this is the one. Both the Euro and the GFS are showing something and when the Euro is onboard, I think this maybe a legit threat
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Yeah there is way more model support than we've seen all season. It's not just one model or one run. If this busts yeah you might as well give up on the season ever starting lol

Now of course the potential US threat is at day 10 so I'm definitely not convinced there(although it's very realistic I think).. But we gotta start somewhere
 
Will encounter dry air for the next several days, which is the worst case scenario if you wanted it to gain latitude. The GFS and Canadian have a capture by the trough turning it away from CONUS. Euro has it nudging under the trough and potentially stalling or moving slowly west under a ridge off the coast of FL. Would be a similar situation to Hurricane Hervey with the slow approach and rapid intensification with minimal shear. A bunch of scenarios on the board.

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jrips27 said:
Long way to go with this one. Way too early to rule out impacts to the USA
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95% recurve harmlessly out to sea, as we get later into the season! Troughs get deeper, and it gets harder for them to get to the east coast. Only hope for Shetley is a gulf system that moves up through the FL panhandle
 
Brent said:
Euro is back to being a significant hurricane and stalls near the NW Bahamas and is trying to turn back towards Florida at the end of the run

Yeah many many possibilities here

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Cmc 12z had the same stutter in the same general area as Euro. The run ran out before turning under the trough. Let's see at 00z.
 
Long time ago I would have said impossible. I'm smarter now. Wasn't paying too much attention to the big boy in south TX until I ran this....looks like a cat 3-4 into Brownsville.
 

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Not that this means actually means anything but the 0z GFS at 144 hours is running about 20mb deeper than the 18z
 
06z still OTS but then0z ensembles still had some members bend back to the coast. The wave has a long elongated circ so not sure exactly where a center will consolidate.
 
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