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Tropical TS Bertha

Snowfan

Snowfan

When NW trend?
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A new invest has been designated.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 261236
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the broad trough
of low pressure extending across central Florida and the adjacent
Atlantic waters.

Showers and thunderstorms located over extreme northeastern
Florida, adjacent Atlantic waters, and the northwestern Bahamas are
associated with an elongated surface trough interacting with an
upper-level disturbance. Although a weak surface low has formed
within the trough near Orlando, Florida, little if any further
development of this system is expected due to land interaction,
strong upper-level winds, and an abundance of dry air in the
mid-levels of the atmosphere. The broad disturbance is forecast to
move northward today and Wednesday, remaining inland or near the
coasts of northeastern Florida and Georgia.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash
flooding over portions of coastal sections of northeastern Florida
and Georgia today, and over portions of the Carolinas on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Gusty winds could also produce rough marine
conditions and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the
coasts of northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas through
Wednesday.

For additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
 
782
ABNT20 KNHC 262050
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
450 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low
pressure near the northeast Florida coast.

An elongated area of low pressure located near the northeast Florida
coast and an associated upper-level disturbance are producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms extending from portions of
Florida and coastal Georgia eastward for a few hundred miles over
the Atlantic waters. Some development of this system is possible
through early Wednesday if it remains offshore while moving slowly
northward near the northeastern Florida and Georgia coasts. The low
is expected to move well inland over the southeast U.S. by late
Wednesday, which should end any chance of tropical cyclone
formation.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash
flooding over portions of coastal sections of northeastern Florida
and Georgia through tonight, and over portions of the Carolinas on
Wednesday. Gusty winds could also produce rough marine conditions
and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coasts of
northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas through Wednesday.

For additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 3 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Click to expand...
 
so we gonna talk about this in here or in May thread, latest 3K Nam gives MBY right at 3" that's kinda sucks....any chance this thing makes TD or TS status....kinda thinking not but latest runs kinda look close, still I will be on the east side of it and that training band the Nam 3k has is interesting....
 
Ha, I was talking with my mom about how the rain we were going through I think came from some tropical mischief that hadn't fully formed, and we see the invest designated later today.
 
NAM had a big change on the 6z run. The 00z run barely/didn’t develop but the 6z run had it pretty close if not tropical storm status.
00z
49CD9B43-AA73-464F-BD3C-5077845094AB.gif
06z
C789A11B-A062-4981-9DB2-FADC88637AD2.gif
 
Based on tropical tidbits the sustained winds are 30kt right now with 40kt gusts and central pressure at 1009. Not far from tropical storm status.
 
The next update should be very interesting to say the least
 
Here’s the 9am update. Went from 30% last update to 70% this update. IMO they will probably up it to a tropical storm soon. They note the buoys show ts force winds and say if they continue they will up it to a ts. We’ll see
D7C261D5-8137-41F9-9F06-959983423888.jpegCDED142A-3DCE-494A-BF8D-85CC02927029.jpeg
 
Bertha now.
Code: 
000
WTNT22 KNHC 271206
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022020
1230 UTC WED MAY 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N  79.4W AT 27/1230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N  79.4W AT 27/1230Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  79.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 33.2N  80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.8N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N  79.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Ramped up very quickly... Good thing Bertha doesn't have much time over water...

286
WTNT42 KNHC 271209
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020
830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking over the
past day or so has quickly become better organized this morning.
The circulation has become better defined and the center has
reformed beneath the area of deep convection just offshore of the
coast of South Carolina. Recent NWS Doppler radar data from
Charleston and buoy data indicates that the system is producing
tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Storm Bertha. The system will be moving
inland very shortly and little, if any, additional strengthening is
expected. Once inland, the small tropical cyclone should weaken
rapidly and dissipated over central North Carolina on Thursday.

There is very little continuity on the initial motion since the
center has only recently formed. The best estimate of the initial
motion is 320/8 kt. The system should continue to move generally
northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge located
over the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models.

Key Messages:

1. Bertha is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
eastern and central South Carolina, west-central to far
southeastern North Carolina, and southwest Virginia. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash flooding.

2. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm winds to portions of
the South Carolina coast within the warning area in the next few
hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1230Z 32.7N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 33.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0600Z 35.8N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
Looks like landfall east end Isle of Palms. Even started to get lower reflectivity within the center, good thing this is moving inland04224537-2634-4745-BCF5-CEBA32C454D1.png4FA76682-777C-40B3-ACE0-D1747DDC4EAC.png
 
Surprised there is a flood watch as far west as Charlotte. I don’t see much there with Bertha falling apart this evening. No watch for Wilkes which I agree with.
 
The clouds from Bertha should make it cool and limit thunderstorms for the west which is good. Actually gives us another day to dry out for places like upstate SC and NC mtns.
 
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