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Tropical TS Arthur

Brent

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I do believe that Arthur is coming

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
240 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas.

A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become conducive for development, and this system
is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday
or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The
system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the
western Atlantic early next week.

Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast
Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind
gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and
the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions
are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas
where Gale Warnings are in effect. See products from your local
weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.two_atl_5d0 (1).png
 
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Hmmm..no life guards, reopened beaches and rip currents. What could go wrong?
 
Well, this thread is now enshrined in Tropical>Wiki ... :mad: ... too early, but it is there ... :eek:
 
We will need to watch this I noticed the 6z models shifted west some.
 
We will need to watch this I noticed the 6z models shifted west some.


Yeah the cmc seems to have shifted west and stronger as well. Still nothing brings it onshore and everything misses east. Could bring some extra showers and some gusty winds to the beaches. Rip currents and wave action will be a bigger problem as it stands right now.
 
6z GEFS came in farther west and stronger with more members below 1000. That’s something to watch like Webb said the environment isn’t great for major development but just enough to support a small system.

00z
180C27F2-3758-4A3E-B4D7-FF0D678EF27E.jpeg

06z
6FAE3788-4C77-44E1-AD7F-36665E84FE88.jpeg
 
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Here’s the new update. Looks like they canceled recon for today but pushed the next update from 9PM to 3PM.
F0C9FBB0-E916-4414-AA86-80980FDA15E1.jpeg
 
Yet another year where we get ahead of the official start date of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. We may have Arthur by this time tomorrow.
 
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