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Tropical TS Arthur

Brent

Brent

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I do believe that Arthur is coming

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
240 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas.

A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become conducive for development, and this system
is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday
or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The
system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the
western Atlantic early next week.

Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast
Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind
gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and
the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions
are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas
where Gale Warnings are in effect. See products from your local
weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.two_atl_5d0 (1).png
 
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Hmmm..no life guards, reopened beaches and rip currents. What could go wrong?
 
Well, this thread is now enshrined in Tropical>Wiki ... :mad: ... too early, but it is there ... :eek:
 
We will need to watch this I noticed the 6z models shifted west some.
 
Ethan80963 said:
We will need to watch this I noticed the 6z models shifted west some.
Click to expand...


Yeah the cmc seems to have shifted west and stronger as well. Still nothing brings it onshore and everything misses east. Could bring some extra showers and some gusty winds to the beaches. Rip currents and wave action will be a bigger problem as it stands right now.
 
6z GEFS came in farther west and stronger with more members below 1000. That’s something to watch like Webb said the environment isn’t great for major development but just enough to support a small system.

00z
180C27F2-3758-4A3E-B4D7-FF0D678EF27E.jpeg

06z
6FAE3788-4C77-44E1-AD7F-36665E84FE88.jpeg
 
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Here’s the new update. Looks like they canceled recon for today but pushed the next update from 9PM to 3PM.
F0C9FBB0-E916-4414-AA86-80980FDA15E1.jpeg
 
Yet another year where we get ahead of the official start date of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. We may have Arthur by this time tomorrow.
 
Recon appears to be a go so far scheduled to have a fix by mid morning pressure has been dropping

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development off the east coast of
Florida.

A broad area of low pressure located near the southeast coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized shower activity and gusty
winds from portions of southern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic waters. Gradual
development is still expected, and the system is likely to become a
tropical or subtropical depression or storm later today while it
passes the northwestern Bahamas and moves north-northeastward over
the Atlantic waters east of Florida. Later in the weekend and early
next week, the system is expected to move generally northeastward
over the western Atlantic east of the Carolinas.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring
heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of southeastern
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through today. In addition,
hazardous marine conditions will continue off the Florida east
coast and in the Bahamas, where Gale Warnings are currently in
effect. Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are also
possible along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and
early next week. See products from your local weather office and
High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this
morning. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 AM EDT Saturday morning, or earlier if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Hmmm..no life guards, reopened beaches and rip currents. What could go wrong?
Click to expand...

Sadly a whole lot real fast....Been caught in one rip current and it dragged me half down the beach before I manage to get out of it. No fun and scary as hell. And there wasn't even a tropical storm or hurricane on the horizon that day.
 
Recon looks to be headed out now to investigate let’s see what they find.
 
Expected to become a subtropical depression/storm by later today or tonight
F38E1873-DF49-4B75-84E7-91379BFBC8E6.jpeg9CD12F5C-6F19-4B58-8C1F-A4F06AF5719C.jpeg
 
North Carolina south won’t benefit as much from a south/west path inland. South/west side downslopes to high heavens East of the mountains. But Virgina blue ridge could squeeze out some better lift.
 
So the question is will 90L dance with the cutoff low and be slung west into the US? Cutoff low would sling East into the Carolinas with clouds/cooler air. Between all that mess should give us at minimum one afternoon of thunderstorms maybe more than one.
 
I don’t do OBX chasing but if we can get some westward jumps today I would consider going to Wrightsville Beach.
 
Should be official anytime now

921
URNT12 KNHC 161559
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL902020
A. 16/15:17:10Z
B. 27.65 deg N 079.11 deg W
C. NA
D. EXTRAP 1009 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 31 kt
I. 003 deg 28 nm 14:57:00Z
J. 082 deg 29 kt
K. 030 deg 38 nm 14:52:30Z
L. 34 kt
M. 359 deg 28 nm 15:56:00Z
N. 034 deg 22 kt
O. 296 deg 5 nm 15:18:30Z
P. 21 C / 217 m
Q. 23 C / 305 m
R. NA / NA
S. 134 / 1
T. 0.02 / 6 nm
U. AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 29 KT 030 / 38 NM 14:52:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 190 / 14 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
 
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