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Tropical TS Arthur

Brent

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I do believe that Arthur is coming

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
240 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas.

A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become conducive for development, and this system
is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday
or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The
system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the
western Atlantic early next week.

Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast
Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind
gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and
the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions
are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas
where Gale Warnings are in effect. See products from your local
weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. two_atl_5d0 (1).png
 
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pcbjr

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Well, this thread is now enshrined in Tropical>Wiki ... :mad: ... too early, but it is there ... :eek:
 

Shaggy

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We will need to watch this I noticed the 6z models shifted west some.
Yeah the cmc seems to have shifted west and stronger as well. Still nothing brings it onshore and everything misses east. Could bring some extra showers and some gusty winds to the beaches. Rip currents and wave action will be a bigger problem as it stands right now.
 

Will Rossman

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Yet another year where we get ahead of the official start date of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. We may have Arthur by this time tomorrow.
 

BirdManDoomW

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Yet another year where we get ahead of the official start date of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. We may have Arthur by this time tomorrow.
But 99% of all activity still falls within hurricane season. These early storms year after year offer no clues to what the season will bring.
 

Brent

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Recon appears to be a go so far scheduled to have a fix by mid morning pressure has been dropping

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development off the east coast of
Florida.

A broad area of low pressure located near the southeast coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized shower activity and gusty
winds from portions of southern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic waters. Gradual
development is still expected, and the system is likely to become a
tropical or subtropical depression or storm later today while it
passes the northwestern Bahamas and moves north-northeastward over
the Atlantic waters east of Florida. Later in the weekend and early
next week, the system is expected to move generally northeastward
over the western Atlantic east of the Carolinas.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring
heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of southeastern
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through today. In addition,
hazardous marine conditions will continue off the Florida east
coast and in the Bahamas, where Gale Warnings are currently in
effect. Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are also
possible along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and
early next week. See products from your local weather office and
High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this
morning. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 AM EDT Saturday morning, or earlier if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
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