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Tropical TS Arthur

Phil

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Hmmm..no life guards, reopened beaches and rip currents. What could go wrong?
Sadly a whole lot real fast....Been caught in one rip current and it dragged me half down the beach before I manage to get out of it. No fun and scary as hell. And there wasn't even a tropical storm or hurricane on the horizon that day.
 

BirdManDoomW

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North Carolina south wonโ€™t benefit as much from a south/west path inland. South/west side downslopes to high heavens East of the mountains. But Virgina blue ridge could squeeze out some better lift.
 

BirdManDoomW

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So the question is will 90L dance with the cutoff low and be slung west into the US? Cutoff low would sling East into the Carolinas with clouds/cooler air. Between all that mess should give us at minimum one afternoon of thunderstorms maybe more than one.
 

BirdManDoomW

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I donโ€™t do OBX chasing but if we can get some westward jumps today I would consider going to Wrightsville Beach.
 

Brent

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Should be official anytime now

921
URNT12 KNHC 161559
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL902020
A. 16/15:17:10Z
B. 27.65 deg N 079.11 deg W
C. NA
D. EXTRAP 1009 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 31 kt
I. 003 deg 28 nm 14:57:00Z
J. 082 deg 29 kt
K. 030 deg 38 nm 14:52:30Z
L. 34 kt
M. 359 deg 28 nm 15:56:00Z
N. 034 deg 22 kt
O. 296 deg 5 nm 15:18:30Z
P. 21 C / 217 m
Q. 23 C / 305 m
R. NA / NA
S. 134 / 1
T. 0.02 / 6 nm
U. AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 29 KT 030 / 38 NM 14:52:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 190 / 14 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
 

Brick Tamland

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Hope it doesn't get stronger than a tropical storm and stays away from the NC coast. I'm heading to Nags Head the first weekend of June. And with the virus and things being closed, the hotels and restaurants don't need anything else to close them down now.
 

Brent

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100/100

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and satellite images
indicate that the low pressure system located just off the coast of
east-central Florida has become better defined today. In addition,
the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually
organize. If these trends continues, advisories will likely be
initiated on this system as a tropical or subtropical depression
later today.
Later in the weekend and early next week, the system
is expected to move generally northeastward over the western
Atlantic near or east of the Carolinas.
 

Brent

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TD 1 is coming

AL, 01, 2020051618, , BEST, 0, 280N, 788W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001, TRANSITIONED, alA02020 to al012020,
 

Will Rossman

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Let's hope this storm stays more OTS than inland. As others have already pointed out, with the virus still on everyone's minds, a storm going up the coast or inland would be another issue to worry about over there. Interesting to see our first system form halfway into May though.
 

Brick Tamland

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Let's hope this storm stays more OTS than inland. As others have already pointed out, with the virus still on everyone's minds, a storm going up the coast or inland would be another issue to worry about over there. Interesting to see our first system form halfway into May though.
I was thinking the same thing. And with the OBX just starting to open up again, this is the last thing they need for their tourism dollars.
 

BufordWX

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FWIW the HWRF model is not looking friendly to the outer banks. I donโ€™t know how much stock to put into it though. Personally, I think this will just miss a landfall there, but there will still be some effects. E52BC744-3F4A-4A95-BF75-436581667FD3.png
 

Brent

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Let's hope this storm stays more OTS than inland. As others have already pointed out, with the virus still on everyone's minds, a storm going up the coast or inland would be another issue to worry about over there. Interesting to see our first system form halfway into May though.
What's crazy is I think this is the 5th or 6th season in a row with a storm before June 1

Every year since 2015

Ten named storms out of the last 14 seasons before June 1

The update will be at 11 and will probably be Arthur
 
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Brent

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I've been trying to figure out all day if I can fix the title but I'm tired of trying :p
 
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