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Tropical Tropical Storm Marco

20202361636_GOES16-ABI-gm-13-1000x1000.jpg
looking good
 
I’m really confused as to why the nhc thinks this is just going to hold at 75 mph and not strengthen before making landfall, I mean that just doesn’t seem right. I think this could easily be a cat 2 at landfall
 
avlsnow said:
I’m really confused as to why the nhc thinks this is just going to hold at 75 mph and not strengthen before making landfall, I mean that just doesn’t seem right. I think this could easily be a cat 2 at landfall
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There's a lot of shear around in this case (that yes, I believe will not be around a few days later with Laura).

At least as of right now, Marco is doing a good job of insulating itself from it, but it's going to be touch and go since it's so small. Could be a weakening (but possibly still strong TS) as it's approaching landfall. Could be as you said, and it could even be it doesn't make it to landfall and gets absorbed by Laura.

If Marco keeps heading north, it's much more likely it keeps holding up vs the shear.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
There's a lot of shear around in this case (that yes, I believe will not be around a few days later with Laura).

At least as of right now, Marco is doing a good job of insulating itself from it, but it's going to be touch and go since it's so small. Could be a weakening (but possibly still strong TS) as it's approaching landfall. Could be as you said, and it could even be it doesn't make it to landfall and gets absorbed by Laura.

If Marco keeps heading north, it's much more likely it keeps holding up vs the shear.
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What is going to cause the shear to decrease in the next few days ?
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
What is going to cause the shear to decrease in the next few days ?
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Idk (I've just seen others talking about how Laura's upper level wind environment is going to be more favorable), my only guess would be the ridge that's supposed to build in soon.

But when you read the discussions, you can tell the difference. NHC says that Marco has a 12-24 hour window for intensification (and it's going to be interesting to see how far it goes, the stronger it is, the more likely it continues poleward and maybe even the more likely it remains a hurricane at landfall) and then the vertical wind shear won't be favorable, then with Laura they're saying what I said above.
 
Hurricane Marco Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Marco has strengthened into a hurricane with maximum winds of
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 87.4W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
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Will Rossman said:
Despite an unfavorable environment over the Gulf, Marco has STILL gained some strength. He's already looking great on visible and IR satellite.
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Michael did this 2 years ago with moderate shear and strengthened the whole way thru...
Not calling for Marco to pull the same fest.

Keynotes here
Marco has been a fighter and is taking advantage of less hostile conditions today...

Hurricane Genevieve recently in the Eastern Pacific also pulled the same trick... was much further east than expected by a LOT... ended up basically brushing up the coast on the Baja...

However with that said, recent SAT images appear to me that a small S/W ridge has settled near Marco, which has one, bent Marco slightly left and is currently sheltering it temporarily...

Marco is tasting the Gulf Loop Current... toasty SSTs...

Key factor down the road for Laura is what Marco's wake and how much it could play a role when Laura crosses this region...
(NOTE: Hurricane Genevieve was expected to hit a strong CAT 4 in the E Pacific, and weakened crossing the wake from Hurricane Elida earlier in the season...)...
 
Stormsfury said:
Michael did this 2 years ago with moderate shear and strengthened the whole way thru...
Not calling for Marco to pull the same fest.

Keynotes here
Marco has been a fighter and is taking advantage of less hostile conditions today...

Hurricane Genevieve recently in the Eastern Pacific also pulled the same trick... was much further east than expected by a LOT... ended up basically brushing up the coast on the Baja...

However with that said, recent SAT images appear to me that a small S/W ridge has settled near Marco, which has one, bent Marco slightly left and is currently sheltering it temporarily...

Marco is tasting the Gulf Loop Current... toasty SSTs...

Key factor down the road for Laura is what Marco's wake and how much it could play a role when Laura crosses this region...
(NOTE: Hurricane Genevieve was expected to hit a strong CAT 4 in the E Pacific, and weakened crossing the wake from Hurricane Elida earlier in the season...)...
Click to expand...

This is a key point as there almost always is at least some cooling from a H, even when the warm water is deep because every storm is taking out energy from the water it travels over. We’ll have to see how much cooling.
 
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marco Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 87.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cameron to
west of Morgan City, Louisiana.
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