Jessy89
Member
If euro is right. A near cat 2 hurricane would put Charleston under water
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I’m just gonna sit back on Monday/Tuesday and day drink (again) while you guys west of me like [mention]metwannabe [/mention] get the brunt of this. I’ll be sitting here in KECG with drizzle and a few gale force gusts.
Does the Ukie have a 06z run?anyone got the 06Z Ukie....
Does the Ukie have a 06z run?
The east side and the northern core of this are gonna get slammed, pretty sure on any of these tracks you get smashed up just fine.....the Euro is the most far west model, and I think HMON may be the further east.....and well it goes right over you lol....so it sure looks like NC gonna take a hit the real question is how far off the coast can he stay on his run up the coast and how strong can he get....
This would be a bit breezy where you are....
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Interesting that all members are now favoring a track west of the Outer BanksHere's the 06z EPS:View attachment 45705
6z Euro makes landfall near Charleston, SC & slams central NC.
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Large swath of 3-6"+ of rain across central NC on this run, higher isolated amounts are almost certainly a guarantee if this came to fruition.
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She is struggling
Still at 80 at 11. How is this even supported?
I'd take anything that happens south of Jacksonville, FL's latitude with a grain of salt. Even if it's a 40 mph tropical storm at that point, I'd expect some reintensification as it rounds the ridge and starts moving more in the direction of the shear vector with venting from the trough. We've seen these things get much healthier in a matter of hours once they round the ridge.
Take Ernesto 2006 which emerged after traversing Florida as 1002mb / 35kt and by the end of the day was back up to 985mb / 60kts on the classic Cape Fear recurve track.