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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

I think this thing could make another run for intensification today. Looking a radar although slight changes looks like he’s trying hard to get his act together. Looks like now it’s trying to wrap around the south side some.
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Gotta keep a weary eye on Isias's interaction w/ Andros Island in the Bahamas, frictional convergence w/ the island in the western and southwestern semicircle's of Isaias's circulation could allow the eyewall to close again and lead to a renewed bout of intensification. Already starting to notice the eyewall is beginning to fill in again, gotta watch this closely over the coming hours.
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New HMON run keeps the center 100 miles east of Florida and at hr 63 looks like its on track to hit Cape Fear , if this is how it actually plays out then obviously the threat to a stronger bigger storm from say MB to MHX is greater.....
 
Large swath of 3-6"+ of rain across central NC on this run, higher isolated amounts are almost certainly a guarantee if this came to fruition.

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Man, the Euro keeps moving it west. It almost reminds me of Irma. I know it's not remotely the same setup, but it's interesting for sure.
 
I’m just gonna sit back on Monday/Tuesday and day drink (again) while you guys west of me like [mention]metwannabe [/mention] get the brunt of this. I’ll be sitting here in KECG with drizzle and a few gale force gusts.
 
crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy) Tweeted:
And this convergent element, even as the system heads extra-tropical around SE Virginia, will give us a pretty strong coastal blow in the UMIDATL/SNE region. (frequent gusts 50s, iso 70 in well timed cells), coastal flooding, heavy rains. Mind the leafed trees/outages (and so on)
 
tramadoc said:
I’m just gonna sit back on Monday/Tuesday and day drink (again) while you guys west of me like [mention]metwannabe [/mention] get the brunt of this. I’ll be sitting here in KECG with drizzle and a few gale force gusts.
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The east side and the northern core of this are gonna get slammed, pretty sure on any of these tracks you get smashed up just fine.....the Euro is the most far west model, and I think HMON may be the further east.....and well it goes right over you lol....so it sure looks like NC gonna take a hit the real question is how far off the coast can he stay on his run up the coast and how strong can he get....

This would be a bit breezy where you are....

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Downeastnc said:
The east side and the northern core of this are gonna get slammed, pretty sure on any of these tracks you get smashed up just fine.....the Euro is the most far west model, and I think HMON may be the further east.....and well it goes right over you lol....so it sure looks like NC gonna take a hit the real question is how far off the coast can he stay on his run up the coast and how strong can he get....

This would be a bit breezy where you are....

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Yeah, but we know how these things work out. Never like modeled. If it does get bad, hello USAA.
 
Webberweather53 said:
6z Euro makes landfall near Charleston, SC & slams central NC.

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Webberweather53 said:
Large swath of 3-6"+ of rain across central NC on this run, higher isolated amounts are almost certainly a guarantee if this came to fruition.

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Webberweather53 said:
Close-up

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I should have planned my trip to the OBX for earlier next week. The way it is trending west with the track it looks like it is going to be worse here than it will be there.
 
WV loop shows some very minor expansion of outflow on the SW side as it pushes out away from the storm.
 
I think it is almost time to start wobble watching instead of looking at the 24 hour models here in Florida
 
I'd take anything that happens south of Jacksonville, FL's latitude with a grain of salt. Even if it's a 40 mph tropical storm at that point, I'd expect some reintensification as it rounds the ridge and starts moving more in the direction of the shear vector with venting from the trough. We've seen these things get much healthier in a matter of hours once they round the ridge.

Take Ernesto 2006 which emerged after traversing Florida as 1002mb / 35kt and by the end of the day was back up to 985mb / 60kts on the classic Cape Fear recurve track.
 
blueheronNC said:
I'd take anything that happens south of Jacksonville, FL's latitude with a grain of salt. Even if it's a 40 mph tropical storm at that point, I'd expect some reintensification as it rounds the ridge and starts moving more in the direction of the shear vector with venting from the trough. We've seen these things get much healthier in a matter of hours once they round the ridge.

Take Ernesto 2006 which emerged after traversing Florida as 1002mb / 35kt and by the end of the day was back up to 985mb / 60kts on the classic Cape Fear recurve track.
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;DISCLAIMER: I am not even suggesting this is going to happen so do not take this as me doing so.

Go look at a satellite loop of Diana 1984. Was literally nothing not even a TS or depression until it formed near Florida made a run at Georgia and turned NE and exploded into a cat 4. Not saying this is even possible here but that it's in an area with bath water running in the gulf stream.
 
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