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Tropical Tropical Storm Cristobal

Shaggy

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Yeah weaksauce. Don’t worry we will have PLENTY to talk about this season. It’s 2020 after all.


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It really looks like garbage. Main showers are way removed from the center. Once visible satellite emerges in suspect we see a large sloppy center.
 

SD

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It really looks like garbage. Main showers are way removed from the center. Once visible satellite emerges in suspect we see a large sloppy center.
I do think there will be a time as it approaches the coast that it may try to lose the asymmetric look and start to get more consolidated convection near the center. Thankfully it'll likely be out of time by that point to really go to town
 

Shaggy

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I do think there will be a time as it approaches the coast that it may try to lose the asymmetric look and start to get more consolidated convection near the center. Thankfully it'll likely be out of time by that point to really go to town
Yeah certainly possible. Had it avoided the Yucatan this would have been much stronger and probably a hurricane at landfall.
 

Will Rossman

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I agree this would probably get more attention if it were income to NC or SC right now. Stormcast forums, which caters to Gulf Coast residents, is popping right now. I'm basically hovering between both sites.

On another note, Cristobal is slightly stronger this morning. The pressure's down to 992 mb and the winds are up to 50 mph.
 

accu35

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I agree this would probably get more attention if it were income to NC or SC right now. Stormcast forums, which caters to Gulf Coast residents, is popping right now. I'm basically hovering between both sites.

On another note, Cristobal is slightly stronger this morning. The pressure's down to 992 mb and the winds are up to 50 mph.
Wow!! Models have it getting its act together closer towards the gulf coast. Maybe it will before than
 

SD

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Yeah certainly possible. Had it avoided the Yucatan this would have been much stronger and probably a hurricane at landfall.
I think it has a shot at cane status before landfall. The evolution today and tonight should be interesting to watch as it may lose some of that big band off to its NE and attempts to fire convection more around the center.

This could be one of those that ends up looking better for a period after landfall. Euro keeps it either side of 990 through the rest of its life span
 

Shaggy

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I think it has a shot at cane status before landfall. The evolution today and tonight should be interesting to watch as it may lose some of that big band off to its NE and attempts to fire convection more around the center.

This could be one of those that ends up looking better for a period after landfall. Euro keeps it either side of 990 through the rest of its life span
Yeah the center looks a little better to me if not can get some storms firing around that it can get it together pretty quick i think.

Wonder how much if at all that dry western side will kill the storms from wrapping the center though.
 

Snowfan

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 90.1W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida Big Bend has been replaced
with coastal flood advisories and statements from local National
Weather Service offices.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Intracoastal City
to Morgan City Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 

Will Rossman

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So key takeaways seems to be that Cristobal is having to fight off dry air and has an exposed COC right now. It is noteworthy that he's starting to get some better banding on his western side now as well. But right now the visible satellite loops don't look that different from a subtropical system. Also interesting that the pressure came up slightly in the last update.
 

Will Rossman

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Also, the center now looks like a donut hole on satellite presentation. For those in the path of the storm, please keep in mind that this system is expansive. So while it may only be a tropical storm, the effects are far reaching with rains and gusty winds, especially to the eastern side of its track.
 

SD

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Also, the center now looks like a donut hole on satellite presentation. For those in the path of the storm, please keep in mind that this system is expansive. So while it may only be a tropical storm, the effects are far reaching with rains and gusty winds, especially to the eastern side of its track.
Yep likely a much larger wind field than a typical TS.

Its certainly having some dry air issues though, I don't know if it's going to be able to work that out before LF
 

Snowfan

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000
WTNT33 KNHC 061731
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 90.2W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
 

Snowfan

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WTNT33 KNHC 070241
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF CRISTOBAL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 90.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 

accu35

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Looks like the storms from the north and south are trying to wrap around
 

Snowfan

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WTNT33 KNHC 071447
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING CLOSER TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 90.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
 
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