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Tropical Tropical Storm Cristobal

Flood Watch...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
957 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...Flood Watch is now in effect today through Tuesday morning...

.Tropical moisture streaming over the central Gulf Coast region
partly from the circulation of Tropical Storm Cristobal will be
capable of producing copious rainfall each day through the weekend
into early next week. General and widespread flooding will become
increasingly likely as this wet pattern persists.

LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ077-080>082-041445-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FA.A.0001.200603T1500Z-200609T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-
St. Tammany-Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-
Livingston-Assumption-St. James-St. John The Baptist-
Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-Upper Jefferson-Orleans-
Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-Upper Terrebonne-
Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Pearl River-Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of New Roads, Lettsworth, Livonia, Spillman,
St. Francisville, Wakefield, Jackson, Clinton, Felps, Darlington,
Easleyville, Greensburg, Montpelier, Bogalusa, Enon, Franklinton,
Slidell, Mandeville, Covington, Lacombe, Bayou Sorrel,
Plaquemine, White Castle, Port Allen, Addis, Brusly, Baton Rouge,
Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Prairieville, Denham Springs, Watson,
Walker, Pierre Part, Labadieville, Paincourtville, Convent,
Lutcher, Gramercy, Laplace, Reserve, Thibodaux, Raceland, Larose,
Destrehan, Norco, Metairie, Kenner, East New Orleans,
New Orleans, Belle Chasse, Chalmette, Violet, Houma, Bayou Cane,
Chauvin, Cocodrie, Dulac, Montegut, Galliano, Cut Off,
Golden Meadow, Leeville, Buras, Pointe A La Hache, Port Sulphur,
Boothville, Venice, Empire, Myrtle Grove, Yscloskey, Amite,
Kentwood, Roseland, Wilmer, Hammond, Robert, Ponchatoula,
Crossroads, McNeil, Poplarville, Picayune, Bay St. Louis,
Waveland, Diamondhead, Gulfport, Pascagoula, Ocean Springs,
Moss Point, Gautier, and St. Martin
957 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flood Watch FOR portions of southeast Louisiana and
Mississippi, including the following areas, in southeast
Louisiana, Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East
Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Lower Jefferson, Lower
Lafourche, Lower Plaquemines, Lower St. Bernard, Lower
Terrebonne, Northern Tangipahoa, Orleans, Pointe Coupee,
Southern Tangipahoa, St. Charles, St. Helena, St. James, St.
John The Baptist, St. Tammany, Upper Jefferson, Upper
Lafourche, Upper Plaquemines, Upper St. Bernard, Upper
Terrebonne, Washington, West Baton Rouge, and West Feliciana.
In Mississippi, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, and Pearl River.

* through Tuesday morning

* Widespread rainfall will become heavy at times, especially along
the daily lake and gulf breezes. Rainfall rates at times will
range 2 to 4 inches per hour. Rainfall accumulations over the
seven day period could easily exceed ten inches within the watch
area.

* Impacts include standing water in streets to the point of
impassible roadways and rapid rises on area creeks and streams.
Drainage systems may approach capacity at times during periods
of heaviest rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
 
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png

The latest Euro has it making landfall as a strong tropical storm in the southern Louisiana coast.
 
HWRF has it making landfall as a weak tropical storm on the Louisiana coast.
hwrf_mslp_wind_03L_36.png

HMON has it making landfall as a strong tropical storm on the Louisiana
hmon_mslp_wind_03L_42.png
coast.
 
Cristobal has weakened a bit according to the latest advisory:
000
WTNT33 KNHC 031739
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER LAND NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
MEXICO...
...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 91.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 91.9 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the south-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn
toward the east is expected later today. A turn toward the
north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern
Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over
the Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday
evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) was reported at
Ciudad del Carmen during the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Click to expand...
 
000
WTNT33 KNHC 032038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MOVING OVER LAND...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 91.8 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward
the east is expected by tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast
and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico
through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the
southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and over the central Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land, and
Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday
evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following
rain accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Click to expand...
688
WTNT43 KNHC 032039
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Cristobal continues to move over land and is passing a short
distance south of Ciudad del Carmen, where tropical storm
force winds, at least in gusts, have been reported. The current
intensity estimate assumes only a very slow weakening rate and
maximum winds are set at 45 kt for this advisory. Since the system
has a large circulation, the weakening should continue to be at a
slow rate and the cyclone is expected to become a tropical
depression by late Thursday. Once the center re-emerges over the
Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to happen on Friday,
re-intensification should begin. However, the model guidance
currently suggests that the atmospheric environment over the Gulf
will not be very conducive for strengthening. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but is at the
high end of the guidance suite. As has been noted, however, there
is significant uncertainty as to how strong Cristobal will be when
it approaches the northern Gulf coast. This is due to the
limitations of predicting tropical cyclone intensity change.

The storm continues to move southeastward quite slowly, or 135/3
kt. Cristobal should move in a partial cyclonic loop, and remain
over land, while embedded within a broad gyre over Central
America and eastern Mexico. Later in the forecast period, an
increase in southerly flow is likely to cause the system to move
back over water and approach the northern Gulf coast this weekend.
The official track forecast follows the dynamical model consensus
TVCA.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and
northern Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central
and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of
storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the
weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the
Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact
location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 18.3N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.0N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1800Z 18.3N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0600Z 19.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1800Z 20.3N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1800Z 24.0N 90.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1800Z 31.7N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Click to expand...
 
Interesting wording from the latest discussion. It seems the atmospheric environment won't be particularly conducive strengthening over the Gulf, so at least not too much to prepare for, other than rain of course.
 
Hoping they rename it again maybe it will dissipate enough on land to get another. Imagine 3 storms from same system in that area already getting 35”+ of rain.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Hoping they rename it again maybe it will dissipate enough on land to get another. Imagine 3 storms from same system in that area already getting 35”+ of rain.
Click to expand...
Haha, yeah I've told some folks that Cristobal is Amanda's son, and if he dissipates and spawns another storm, that'd be his daughter, Dolly!
 
10 PM update from the NHC ... still stationary:

878
WTNT43 KNHC 040239
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Geostationary satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy,
Mexico, indicate that Cristobal has moved very little since the
previous advisory, and that the convective structure of the cyclone
remains fairly well-organized with several bands wrapping around the
circulation. The center is still located just south of Ciudad del
Carmen, and the observing site at that location reported a pressure
of around 995 mb earlier this evening. The initial intensity has
been lowered to 40 kt, assuming some reduction in wind speed has
taken place. Additional gradual weakening is expected during the
next day or so while the center moves slowly inland over eastern
Mexico. Cristobal is expected to emerge over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico on Friday and some re-intensification is forecast to
occur. After that time, some additional strengthening is forecast
while Cristobal moves northward toward the northern Gulf coast, but
the overall environment is not expected to be particularly
conducive for intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast
shows a slightly lower peak intensity than the previous advisory,
and it is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model
and the IVCN intensity consensus aid.

Although Cristobal has been nearly stationary over the past several
hours, a slow southeastward or eastward motion should commence
overnight. Increasing southerly flow around a strengthening ridge
over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to begin moving
northward on Friday, and a northward or north-northwestward motion
should continue through Saturday with Cristobal approaching the
northern Gulf coast by later in the weekend. The new NHC track
forecast is again very similar to the previous NHC advisory and is
close to the various consensus models.

The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have been increased
primarily over the eastern semicircle at 48 through 72 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday morning, especially over western Campeche, eastern
Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge,
heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along
portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 18.3N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.0N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 18.4N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 19.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 21.3N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/1200Z 23.1N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 24.9N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 28.8N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 32.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown
 
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory 10:

...CRISTOBAL MOVING VERY LITTLE WHILE IT CONTINUES TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...

LOCATION: 18.3°N 91.8°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT: Stationary
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 mb
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 mph

NHC Track/Intensity Forecast:
A2CA8494-57C9-400F-AE91-D62CBB13EC72.png

12H: 40 MPH...INLAND
24H: 35 MPH...INLAND
36H: 35 MPH...INLAND
48H: 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H: 50 MPH
72H: 60 MPH
96H: 60 MPH
120H: 35 MPH...INLAND
 
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory 10A:

...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...

LOCATION: 18.0°N 91.5°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT: SE at 3 mph
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 mb (+2)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 mph (-5)
 
I can't remember, do TS that drop to depressions lose their name?
Also, hoping this one somehow just dissipates, though I know that is unlikely. I'm supposed to be in Gulf Shores this weekend.
 
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