Tropical Tropical Storm Milton

[Brick Tamland]

Has Tampa ever taken a direct hit from the West? A hurricane moving ENE across the width of the GOM is rare.

I was thinking the same thing. Weird to see a system develop there and move that direction.

 

[Snowfan]

Looks like either a direct hit on Tampa or the northern eyewall on Tampa. GFS shows a direct hit while both the Euro and it's AI cousin shows the northern eyewall hitting Tampa.

 

[Brent]

PTC probably coming at 11. Milton is the next name

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Looks like either a direct hit on Tampa or the northern eyewall on Tampa. GFS shows a direct hit while both the Euro and it's AI cousin shows the northern eyewall hitting Tampa.

The worst-case scenario would be the southern eyewall hitting Tampa. Not to mention a track along the I-4 corridor.

 

[BHS1975]

I was thinking the same thing. Weird to see a system develop there and move that direction.

Even if it misses in either direction the surge will still be high coming from the west.


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[Henry2326]

A bit behind the eightball but they caught up.

 

[Snowfan]

PTC probably coming at 11. Milton is the next name

Correction: TD 9.

 

[RollTide18]

Could this be this generations Hurricane Lenny?

 

[iGRXY]

00z and 06z are very similar.....
Even lower pressure to 949.
Hurricane on Monday morning.
Looks like about half the ensemble agrees with operational.

View attachment 152581

View attachment 152582

Stronger the storm, the more north it’s going to track. Which is exactly what you see here. Seeing several tracks into the big bend on the ensembles is giving me PTSD

 

[Webberweather53]

One thing that really sticks out here is the stronger solutions are further to the north, with the mid-upper level flow being stronger/more southwesterly

 

[Brent]

Disturbingly similar to pre Helene

 

[BHS1975]

Getting it together already on the visible loop.


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[Wild Weather Monger]

It's currently sitting over 86-degree water in a rather favorable environment. This looks nothing like the broad slop fest models had previously for a week portrayed.

 

[Brent]

The system could become a major
hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of
Mexico.

 

[Brent]

 

[ILMRoss]

This is bad

 

[GaWx]

12Z Icon: near Pt Charlotte, which is further N than the 0Z/6Z that were between Ft Myers and Naples

 

[Sctvman]

 

[Henry2326]

12z Icon still south

 

[accu35]

12z Icon still south


View attachment 152607

But creeping north