Tropical Tropical Storm Milton

[Snowfan]

Milton replaced Michael...

If the forecast verified, it would be replaced as well.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

It appears the LLC is about to be exposed. Hopefully, we can slow its roll for a time.

 

[jrips27]

EPS is less than ideal

 

[deltadog03]

HWRF is like a direct path into Tampa. Looks like dry air might not be an issue until landfall.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Euro alot stronger

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

It seems Helene didnt cool the water down as much as i thought it might

 

[Brent]

Yeah if this bombs out it's probably the doomsday Tampa hurricane

 

[severestorm]

I'm at the villages in Florida. Can't escape the hurricanes.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

I'm at the villages in Florida. Can't escape the hurricanes.

There’s a place called the villages ?

 

[severestorm]

There’s a place called the villages ?

Yup it's a 55+ community.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Yeah if this bombs out it's probably the doomsday Tampa hurricane View attachment 152628

And we know how these systems in the Gulf have blown up quickly the last few years.

 

[Triplephase93]

My mom’s Condo in Englewood Florida would be completely screwed with this track. It’s on the bay and a quarter mile from the gulf on manasota key. Just took had 2.5 feet of water inside from Helene. Hoping this thing moves south but that doesn’t look likely.

 

[Webberweather53]

I wouldn’t be shocked if model consensus nudges closer to Tampa here in a few cycles or so. The models are still playing catch up to organizational trends and a stronger storm is gonna get pulled further north by the more SWly flow aloft

Indeed the last few model suites, including the 12z have shifted north, now w/ the model consensus over Tampa.

 

[jrips27]

Explicitly forecasting a major into Tampa

 

[Brent]

Explicitly forecasting a major into Tampa
View attachment 152630

Let's hope the NHC is wrong like they were about Atlanta because yikes

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Explicitly forecasting a major into Tampa
View attachment 152630

I’m a little surprised the cone is so far north. Savannah is inside the cone !

 

[jrips27]

“Milton is within favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for strengthening. The scatterometer data indicated that the radius of
maximum was around 20 n mi, and with the expected low vertical wind shear conditions, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely
during the next few days. The official intensity forecasts calls for Milton to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, and a major hurricane by 72 hours. The regional hurricane models continue to be quite aggressive in intensifying Milton. For now, the NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids, but upward adjustments could be required if the dynamical hurricane models continue their trends. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week”

 

[Brent]

I’m a little surprised the cone is so far north. Savannah is inside the cone !

It's an average error at that range. That's all