Tropical Tropical Storm Milton

Avalanche · 2024-10-04T22:20:13-0400

I’d venture to say conditions are right given its location!!!

jrips27 · 2024-10-04T23:52:58-0400

0z GFS looking stronger. Consolidates the vort much quicker. Sub 990 already

Avalanche · 2024-10-04T23:57:08-0400

at the gulf!!!

Brent · 2024-10-04T23:58:01-0400

GFS has a hurricane on Monday!

lexxnchloe · 2024-10-04T23:59:03-0400

jrips27 said:
0z GFS looking stronger. Consolidates the vort much quicker. Sub 990 alreadyView attachment 152566

Down to 969 at 72. Lets see how much it weakens near FLA

jrips27 · 2024-10-04T23:59:16-0400

Yeah not good

Brent · 2024-10-05T00:02:00-0400

Forget the models the satellite is very concerning tonight

goes16_ir_92L_202410050337_lat22.0-lon-95.5.jpg

lexxnchloe · 2024-10-05T00:03:51-0400

jrips27 said:
Yeah not good
View attachment 152568

956. A bad run. outlier from the other models

jrips27 · 2024-10-05T00:04:46-0400

GFS trying to reset the Tampa Bay surge records again

lexxnchloe · 2024-10-05T00:08:30-0400

48 mb stronger than 18Z. Seems unlikely. See what the euro does tonight

lexxnchloe · 2024-10-05T00:13:35-0400

CMC stronger than 12Z

Brent · 2024-10-05T00:16:17-0400

What is happening

gfs_2024-10-05-00Z_084_31.056_262.267_18.5_286.667_Simulated_Satellite_Satellite.png

jrips27 · 2024-10-05T00:17:59-0400

lexxnchloe said:
CMC stronger than 12Z

Significantly slower than GFS

GFS has it in Tampa at 108 whereas the Canadian is barely off the Yucatán lol. I’m more inclined to go with the GFS

lexxnchloe · 2024-10-05T00:18:54-0400

jrips27 said:
Significantly slower than GFS

GFS has it in Tampa at 108 whereas the Canadian is barely off the Yucatán lol. I’m more inclined to go with the GFS

And alot further south

Brent · 2024-10-05T00:26:30-0400

Historic GFS run if it verified

GaWx · 2024-10-05T00:34:38-0400

jrips27 said:
Significantly slower than GFS

GFS has it in Tampa at 108 whereas the Canadian is barely off the Yucatán lol. I’m more inclined to go with the GFS

0Z UK: best for track, not intensity! Much further S than GFS and near CMC. This goes ENE S of Naples (12Z was between Naples and Ft Myers). Reminds me of Ian, when UK was furthest SE days in advance and ended up best with Icon 2nd (But CMC was furthest NW near GFS)

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 22.4N 91.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2024 60 22.4N 91.0W 1003 30
0000UTC 08.10.2024 72 22.2N 89.3W 1001 27
1200UTC 08.10.2024 84 22.8N 87.4W 998 30
0000UTC 09.10.2024 96 23.6N 85.0W 997 31
1200UTC 09.10.2024 108 24.8N 82.5W 997 34
0000UTC 10.10.2024 120 26.5N 79.6W 998 36
1200UTC 10.10.2024 132 29.3N 75.2W 999 45
0000UTC 11.10.2024 144 30.6N 68.7W 1000 47
1200UTC 11.10.2024 156 31.7N 62.6W 1001 47
0000UTC 12.10.2024 168 32.8N 55.9W 1002 39

GaWx · 2024-10-05T00:43:07-0400

The GFS so far is on its own with a central FL landfall:

-UK, CMC, and ICON are all S of Ft. Myers

-JMA 72 (end) implies SW FL most likely

-GFS and CMC were way too far NW with Ian. Euro was also quite a bit too far NW but not as bad. UK (SW FL) was the best. Icon 2nd best.

GaWx · 2024-10-05T00:58:50-0400

Icon has had landfall SW FL since way back with 12Z 10/1 run. UK has had SW landfall last 2 runs (first runs with this). The UK/ICON duo, especially UK, was furthest SE with Ian days in advance and were best by far. Euro and especially GFS/CMC were significantly too far NW (GFS/CMC had several runs way up in panhandle)! Food for thought.

Euro next!

jrips27 · 2024-10-05T01:05:51-0400

Anyone know when the hurricane intensity models will begin? I’m guessing overnight at 6z?