Pattern The rest of winter

[Shawn]

Yep. Climo says we get our really good snows around here in the month of Feb.

Feb can be a fun ride here in SC. I like the idea of possibly having another shot at some type of fun and games at the beginning of Feb.


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 Per history, Feb, especially ~2/8-2/25 and with an extra high concentration 2/8-2/15, seems to be the best chance per climo to get a rare bout of significant winter storm to affect far southern areas and coastal areas of GA/SC. Often, these storms were Gulf lows that crossed near or just south of central FL. They occur about once every 12 years on average. The Feb ones from the last 100 years were 2/12/2010, 2/23/1989, 2/18/1979, 2/9-10/1973, 2/8/1968, 2/12/1958, and 2/10/1934.

Thanks for that data Larry. I knew my thinking of the 10-25th wasnt too far off around here. It is much better than our climo Jan ice storms!

I think our local office likes to say a low tracking across north central florida in late jan/feb is best climo for a winter event here.

 

[campamy]

I've had to be away for a couple days sooooo, are we really looking for a possible storm the first week of February? That would be an awesome birthday present!!

 

[Storm5]

I think it's gonna take time . we need a complete pattern breakdown at this point.

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Not until February and then the sun angle battle begins.


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Although I have see some of the biggest snowstorms of my life in mid-February here in the Upstate of SC, so the sun angle doesn't bother me.

I agree tony. Yes the sun angle changes and not for the better when dealing with winter weather in the SE. But it gets overblown all time, that along with warm ground temps . I've had great snows in late February and early March

The pattern looks severe to me...5-10 feet expected out west in some of the winter weather products...gusts over 100...major warmth out east....gut feeling someone is going to get hit with severe weather then a major winter storm when the pattern finally snaps late this month into February.
This doesn't hold well for any persistent pattern, looks more chaotic and transient with extreme weather.

Not until February and then the sun angle battle begins.


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Although I have see some of the biggest snowstorms of my life in mid-February here in the Upstate of SC, so the sun angle doesn't bother me.

Yep. Climo says we get our really good snows around here in the month of Feb.

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[MBell]

For the larrys of the board...are there any analogs that feature similar setups such as this?! I don't think 2014 was quite this bizarre with the depth of air on each side of the boundary...? It was 10 Sunday Morning, today 71 with what was left of snow gone. Insane.


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[SD]

For the larrys of the board...are there any analogs that feature similar setups such as this?! I don't think 2014 was quite this bizarre with the depth of air on each side of the boundary...? It was 10 Sunday Morning, today 71 with what was left of snow gone. Insane.


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You could probably find quite a few Nina'sthat are similar. The favor wind temperature swings and cold in the northern, Northwest us and warm in the SE.

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[Darklordsuperstorm]

If the models keep bringing these broad based troughs into a warm moist airmass someone is going to get rocked.