Pattern The rest of winter

[BHS1975]

Euro showing a decent CAD next weekend with a cutter.


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[CoreyTheSecond]

I would have never guessed I wouldn't get any snow out of this storm. I have come to the conclusion that a daytime snow is so much better than a night time snow. I was up till 5 am last night standing under a light looking for tiny flakes. I'm not sure if I wanna do that next storm. It was kinda stressful. Next storm needs to have snow falling during the day light hours. Those storms are 500% more fun.

 

[GaWx]

^Corey,
You may want to reconsider providing your snow dance services. I recall it may have helped you with that very heavy snow squall last winter.
Could this end up being the biggest threat of the winter? Yes, of course. However, looking at climo of winters with similar ENSO, it wouldn't at all surprise me if there is another at least threat of major wintry at ATL. I'd be especially wary about the possibility of a wedge induced major ZR/IP.

 

[Shawn]

^Corey,
You may want to reconsider providing your snow dance services. I recall it may have helped you with that very heavy snow squall last winter.
Could this end up being the biggest threat of the winter? Yes, of course. However, looking at climo of winters with similar ENSO, it wouldn't at all surprise me if there is another at least threat of major wintry at ATL. I'd be especially wary about the possibility of a wedge induced major ZR/IP.

Hey Larry, would you like a separate board section or anything to place all your thoughts and research?

 

[ForsythSnow]

^Corey,
You may want to reconsider providing your snow dance services. I recall it may have helped you with that very heavy snow squall last winter.
Could this end up being the biggest threat of the winter? Yes, of course. However, looking at climo of winters with similar ENSO, it wouldn't at all surprise me if there is another at least threat of major wintry at ATL. I'd be especially wary about the possibility of a wedge induced major ZR/IP.

Which years were similar to this year's setup from what you see? I agree we will likely see an ice storm in CAD areas this winter as well, just seems like we can.

 

[GaWx]

^Corey,
You may want to reconsider providing your snow dance services. I recall it may have helped you with that very heavy snow squall last winter.
Could this end up being the biggest threat of the winter? Yes, of course. However, looking at climo of winters with similar ENSO, it wouldn't at all surprise me if there is another at least threat of major wintry at ATL. I'd be especially wary about the possibility of a wedge induced major ZR/IP.

Hey Larry, would you like a separate board section or anything to place all your thoughts and research?

 Hey Shawn,
 Wow, thanks for offering that! However, I'm going to pass on that honor as I'd prefer to just post this climo kind of stuff in relevant threads from time to time as I did here as opposed to it being more isolated in its own section. But again, thanks, anyway!

 

[NWCummingWx]

LOL! No way do I want to rush winter. I hate 95° days and w/humidity we deal w/in the summer time.

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I know that's right...I hate humid air in the summer time...it's awful. The best thing about winter is staying warm...during the summer, it's hard to stay cool down here in GA.

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The absolute only thing awesome about summer down here (IMO) is our popcorn season. That is another passion of mine. I will drive to where the storms are. I love our popcorn storms. On the negative side however, you need heat and humidity for those to occur.

 

[CoreyTheSecond]

^Corey,
You may want to reconsider providing your snow dance services. I recall it may have helped you with that very heavy snow squall last winter.
Could this end up being the biggest threat of the winter? Yes, of course. However, looking at climo of winters with similar ENSO, it wouldn't at all surprise me if there is another at least threat of major wintry at ATL. I'd be especially wary about the possibility of a wedge induced major ZR/IP.

To be honest, I was too confident. I didn't think I needed to do a snow dance. I really didn't. I just didn't want to use up my energy because it makes me tired. But next time I won't make the same mistake. I realize I can never stop dancing now.

 

[GaWx]

^Corey,
You may want to reconsider providing your snow dance services. I recall it may have helped you with that very heavy snow squall last winter.
Could this end up being the biggest threat of the winter? Yes, of course. However, looking at climo of winters with similar ENSO, it wouldn't at all surprise me if there is another at least threat of major wintry at ATL. I'd be especially wary about the possibility of a wedge induced major ZR/IP.

Which years were similar to this year's setup from what you see? I agree we will likely see an ice storm in CAD areas this winter as well, just seems like we can.

 
 I'm mainly thinking about past winters with similar ENSO to now. I found 28 winters with similar ENSO. A whopping 16 of those 28 (over 50% is a lot compared to other ENSO) had either/both a major ZR/IP in ATL. 2013-14 has some similarities and ATL did have a major IP/ZR in Feb though Jan 2014 overall is very likely going to turn out much colder than Jan of 2017 based on the warmup that model consensus is suggesting. Also, 1961-2 had some similarities in Dec. It had a major ZR in Jan.

 

[ATLwxfan]

We're not looking good through mid month

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I think it's gonna take time . we need a complete pattern breakdown at this point.

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Not until February and then the sun angle battle begins.


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[ATLwxfan]

With the next threat, I will take the model with the worst outcome and double down on it. I won't trust the GFS and worship the Euro. Within 24 hours I'll ride the HRRR/RGEM.

I'm keeping the sled though.

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[olhausen]

My perfect winter is a few dustings and then two decent storms of 2 inches or more. That's about average for up here and I'm fine with that. I never really start worrying up here if we haven't had a decent snow until mid February. Most years February and sometimes early march is when we get our best storms. Of the 10 winters I've lived here I can only remember three January's that produced a snow storm of 3 or more inches. The 12 inch snow from last January and the 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 winters. So the other 7 I had to wait until February and March.

 

[WarEagle22]

Amen Storm! I'm hoping we have another shot or 2. At least something up in the mtns of Gatlinburg before winter ends. I'll drive up for it lol. Just want to see some fluffy, powdery snow.

 

[metfascination]

I'm ever the optimist - holding out for another chance at a good event. The 1993 storm occurred on my birthday, March 13. Best gift ever! I am a fan of cooler weather myself, anyway - much easier to get warm than stay cool. And much more comfortable to run in.


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[WilkesboroDude]

The pattern looks severe to me...5-10 feet expected out west in some of the winter weather products...gusts over 100...major warmth out east....gut feeling someone is going to get hit with severe weather then a major winter storm when the pattern finally snaps late this month into February.
This doesn't hold well for any persistent pattern, looks more chaotic and transient with extreme weather.

 

[tonysc]

We're not looking good through mid month

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I think it's gonna take time . we need a complete pattern breakdown at this point.

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Not until February and then the sun angle battle begins.


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Although I have see some of the biggest snowstorms of my life in mid-February here in the Upstate of SC, so the sun angle doesn't bother me.

 

[Shawn]

I think it's gonna take time . we need a complete pattern breakdown at this point.

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Not until February and then the sun angle battle begins.


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Although I have see some of the biggest snowstorms of my life in mid-February here in the Upstate of SC, so the sun angle doesn't bother me.

Yep. Climo says we get our really good snows around here in the month of Feb.

 

[whatalife]

Not until February and then the sun angle battle begins.


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Although I have see some of the biggest snowstorms of my life in mid-February here in the Upstate of SC, so the sun angle doesn't bother me.

Yep. Climo says we get our really good snows around here in the month of Feb.

Feb can be a fun ride here in SC. I like the idea of possibly having another shot at some type of fun and games at the beginning of Feb.


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[GaWx]

Although I have see some of the biggest snowstorms of my life in mid-February here in the Upstate of SC, so the sun angle doesn't bother me.

Yep. Climo says we get our really good snows around here in the month of Feb.

Feb can be a fun ride here in SC. I like the idea of possibly having another shot at some type of fun and games at the beginning of Feb.


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 Per history, Feb, especially ~2/8-2/25 and with an extra high concentration 2/8-2/15, seems to be the best chance per climo to get a rare bout of significant winter storm to affect far southern areas and coastal areas of GA/SC. Often, these storms were Gulf lows that crossed near or just south of central FL. They occur about once every 12 years on average. The Feb ones from the last 100 years were 2/12/2010, 2/23/1989, 2/18/1979, 2/9-10/1973, 2/8/1968, 2/12/1958, and 2/10/1934.

 

[whatalife]

Yep. Climo says we get our really good snows around here in the month of Feb.

Feb can be a fun ride here in SC. I like the idea of possibly having another shot at some type of fun and games at the beginning of Feb.


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 Per history, Feb, especially ~2/8-2/25 and with an extra high concentration 2/8-2/15, seems to be the best chance per climo to get a rare bout of significant winter storm to affect far southern areas and coastal areas of GA/SC. Often, these storms were Gulf lows that crossed near or just south of central FL. They occur about once every 12 years on average. The Feb ones from the last 100 years were 2/12/2010, 2/23/1989, 2/18/1979, 2/9-10/1973, 2/8/1968, 2/12/1958, and 2/10/1934.

WOW! Larry good stuff...Thanks!


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