The HRRR has consistently had a stronger mid-level (700mb) trough than other models (like the NAM) & probably explains a lot of the discrepancy. Imho, in these kinds of situations, the NAM is probably going to be too dry and based on current obs, I'd probably lean to the HRRR camp a bit more. Most of the precip that falls east of the mountains will be driven by a deformation zone around this level w/ mid-level vorticity slowing/pivoting more over eastern NC than that in the low-levels (leading to dCVA aloft).