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Wintry The Jan. 14th Central NC Unicorn (just to prove a point) Winter Event

jackendrickwx said:
lol. lmao
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Not one person in here didn't know this was going to be the eventuality. The HhrrrrrrR always shows increasing precipitation for a period of time and then it crosses some temporal threshold and starts decreasing it till we're left with short duration light flurries. It does this every winter with virtually every system.
 
The HRRR has consistently had a stronger mid-level (700mb) trough than other models (like the NAM) & probably explains a lot of the discrepancy. Imho, in these kinds of situations, the NAM is probably going to be too dry and based on current obs, I'd probably lean to the HRRR camp a bit more. Most of the precip that falls east of the mountains will be driven by a deformation zone around this level w/ mid-level vorticity slowing/pivoting more over eastern NC than that in the low-levels (leading to dCVA aloft).
 
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