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Pattern The Great December Dump

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
South trend isn’t over that’s assuming the GFS’ general setup is correct..which is doubtful
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A south trend is actually possible due to the heights building to the north of the storm system. Dramatic changes on the past 4 runs from the GFS.
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I'd like to see some signs of the leading cold being held around longer or something being able to phase in. Still though as you are seeing on the gfs getting caught in the right spot with the incoming upper low we could have cold enough 850s to support a nice paste bomb

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Ollie Williams said:
West NC crushjob. The ULL further SW though
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My back-yard is literally in the 20 inch bull's eye. I know that will not be the case come verification time. Hard to stay there for 7 days. My only prayer is that it trends south-west instead of north-west. I believe there will be a storm. Question is.... will it have enough dynamics to be a snowstorm?
 
Ive just looked at some soundings for fun with that snow, and some show up to -4 omega/lift in that heavy snow band, in the DGZ ! That’s intense lift, that would mean a complete paste bomb, again I looked at it for fun, normally looking at that stuff starts becoming important 24-48 hours, we still have a longgg way
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Ive just looked at some soundings for fun with that snow, and some show up to -4 omega/lift in that heavy snow band, in the DGZ ! That’s intense lift, that would mean a complete paste bomb, again I looked at it for fun, normally looking at that stuff starts becoming important 24-48 hours, we still have a longgg way
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keep your hopes in check, it's just the GFS. How has the euro been trending on this time frame the past 24 hours?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Ive just looked at some soundings for fun with that snow, and some show up to -4 omega/lift in that heavy snow band, in the DGZ ! That’s intense lift, that would mean a complete paste bomb, again I looked at it for fun, normally looking at that stuff starts becoming important 24-48 hours, we still have a longgg way
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Here's a snap-shot at the sounding during the height of the storm. The entire atmosphere is solidly below freezing. This is at least a 10-1 ratio sounding.

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deltadog03 said:
I think this could be the best overall threat we have seen this early winter season. Not saying it’s going to happen, but I think there is some possibility.
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I'd really like to see a few eps members jump on board and maybe they are for other locations besides mby but for here they are nearly 0.

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SD said:
Start watching the eastern siberia, sea of okhotsk, aleutians, Alaska area. Models are starting to show some movement in that area toward a setup that would be one to send some really cold air into the US by new years

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SD, the Pacific is heading the wrong direction. Ao and nao look ok, but if the Pacific isn't favorable, then it's not looking good unfortunately. Models are unsure on the mjo where it goes if it can move. The IOD being positive for so long will take a while to break down imo.
 
Golf7575 said:
SD, the Pacific is heading the wrong direction. Ao and nao look ok, but if the Pacific isn't favorable, then it's not looking good unfortunately. Models are unsure on the mjo where it goes if it can move. The IOD being positive for so long will take a while to break down imo.
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Unless the models are jumping the gun a bad Pacific pattern is maybe 10 days.

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SD said:
Unless the models are jumping the gun a bad Pacific pattern is maybe 10 days.

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Do you think the mjo may have a signal in the warm phases with it showing really warm up north? That would be interesting if its true. We want to see a coherent signal. Also, im curious about the west based elniño currently and when it could come in to help us.
 
Golf7575 said:
Do you think the mjo may have a signal in the warm phases with it showing really warm up north? That would be interesting if its true. We want to see a coherent signal. Also, im curious about the west based elniño currently and when it could come in to help us.
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It really isn’t El Niño but rather neutral positive per ONI.
 
GaWx said:
It really isn’t El Niño but rather neutral positive per ONI.
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If you weren't able to access ENSO values or SST maps and just looked at the pattern, you'd probably think we were in an El Nino.
 
Golf7575 said:
Do you think the mjo may have a signal in the warm phases with it showing really warm up north? That would be interesting if its true. We want to see a coherent signal. Also, im curious about the west based elniño currently and when it could come in to help us.
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There definitely seems to be a signal in the olr of a mjo wave. It's a valid concern that we could see that progress through the warmer phases which may push a turn toward a truly better pattern out until mid jan. To be honest things are really just a mess with some conflicting signals, it'll be fun to see what's going to become dominant later in the month assuming the iod continues its collapse

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Rain Cold said:
If you weren't able to access ENSO values or SST maps and just looked at the pattern, you'd probably think we were in an El Nino.
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Perhaps, but also if one considered that the coldest relative to normal has been in the N US and the warmest S, that’s typical of the opposite, La Niña. Thanks largely to -GLAAM apparently.
 
GaWx said:
Perhaps, but also if one considered that the coldest relative to normal has been in the N US and the warmest S, that’s typical of the opposite, La Niña. Thanks largely to -GLAAM apparently.
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Where are you getting your AAM anomalies? I can't find them anymore.

Edit found a graph, looks like globally we are -1 and have fallen off since the start of the month. It would be nice to see at what latitudes the +/- anomalies are occurring.

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Nick_boynton_ said:
Be careful you know how bad the euro is with over doing warmth in the US ... most likely won’t look like this in the end
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This pattern does have support tho, but the issue has been that the ridge has been to Far East, and instead been verifying to the central US instead, still were kinda due for a more typical nino pattern in December
 
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