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Pattern The Great December Dump

That HP isn't that strong what happened to that Low?


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Can't look right now, but I imagine it's a combination of higher heights/blocking in NE Canada, helping to keep the N. Atl low from hauling out, thus preventing the Lakes Low from taking up residence.
 
From what I saw looked like the GEFS mean had snow down to Atlanta or just north. However I don’t know if it’s skewed or not
 
Christmas 2010 was the famous @Rain Cold (cold rain) guarantee. Something tells me he’s not willing to give such a guarantee this time. It seems unlikely to me anyway that this is “coming back” in the form of a snow storm.
 
Really beginning to get nervous for the end of the month into January. Just looking at the GEFS and the separation from the PV to the stretch of the SSW into our side of the world makes me think January will be warm. However, the GEFS has done this before in November and completely flopped days later.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-7772000.png
 
Really beginning to get nervous for the end of the month into January. Just looking at the GEFS and the separation from the PV to the stretch of the SSW into our side of the world makes me think January will be warm. However, the GEFS has done this before in November and completely flopped days later.

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Might be a toss up.


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12z Euro will be close call W NC for ZR.

Main story though is massive rainstorm for much of SE with the sfc low actually moving NNW in the N GOM as it is captured by upper low!
 
That trough on the GEFS sets up on the west coast well inside 200hr and just ROTS until the end of the run..pissed

I can't like the 2 week western trough run. I'm trying, even with ridging showing up in Alaska, just don't like at all. All the cold hangs in the west like it did last year. I'm starting to get flashbacks.
 
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