Euro has to be on board if there is a storm. May not be 10 days away but needs to show it within 5
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Still no real cold air in sight for the SE on the 2 week model consensus fwiw. Then again, the 11-15 day portion of models has been near worthless over the last month or so.
Regardless, even if we average the next 2 weeks slightly warmer than normal as the consensus suggests (average high over next 2 weeks, say, in the mid 60s here) that is easily the best weather of the year. As long as we don’t torch, I’m content.
Regardless, even if we average the next 2 weeks slightly warmer than normal as the consensus suggests (average high over next 2 weeks, say, in the mid 60s here) that is easily the best weather of the year. As long as we don’t torch, I’m content.
We had 50s and 60s last mid January. I rather have marginal cold
This cooler air this year has definitely put a dent on the fire ants around here, past 5 years after a soaking rain you’d see mounds everywhere, different this year, I’ll take average to slightly AN temps
ATLwxfan
Member
Fair points...no blowtorch in December is almost unprecedented. We are too snow hungry sometimes to appreciate seasonable temps.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
RollTide18
Member
I'll take seasonal temps any December, I still cringe at how warm December 2015 was.
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StormStalker
Member
Snowing now in KC. I’m not sure if it will last through the entire game but you may want to check out the Chief/Broncos game if you want to see a snow bowl.
CMC looks a bit better
GEFS way suppressed
in comparison to the bullish 18z
in comparison to the bullish 18z
NoSnowATL
Member
GEFS way suppressed
I might be wrong but don’t we need it to phase in that location?
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Such good tracks, just not enough CAA, probably due to less influence from the 50/50 or it being to far south to tug in colder 850s, later phase always helps with CAA
Way too south. Maybe one of our worst GEFS runs yet.
I need someone to post analogsGEFS way suppressed
in comparison to the bullish 18z
Yeah, no 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We don’t necessarily need it to phase at all at any point in time, leaving the southern stream wave/ cut off ULL alone is often perfectly fine and even preferred in situations like these. The phasing process can at least initially shear and distort the ULL and drag it further north which in such an instance might leave this threat confined to the mid Atlantic instead of the SE US.
Moral of the story: phasing doesn’t always = a better storm. Jan 2000 is a good example of what can happen if the southern stream wave is left alone
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Bingo. Usually we see cold prior, during or too late. As modeled here in December no major source of cold anywhere to be found lol.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’s important to keep in mind regarding model “trends” that the further you move away from verification, the less likely a model “trend” actually represents reality. This is especially true when we’re dealing with forecasts for a cut off ULL several days-week out, and these ULLs are usually the most difficult phenomena to predict.
Forecasters and enthusiasts alike should really pay attention to shorter term trends in NWP (particularly when said trends are coupled with new, reliable, more adequately constrained observations from RAOBs, surface stations, etc) because these short term trends are not only are likely indicative of something real, but they also tend to propagate forward in time on later model runs and may reverse or enhance a “trend” in a model at some later time.
Forecasters and enthusiasts alike should really pay attention to shorter term trends in NWP (particularly when said trends are coupled with new, reliable, more adequately constrained observations from RAOBs, surface stations, etc) because these short term trends are not only are likely indicative of something real, but they also tend to propagate forward in time on later model runs and may reverse or enhance a “trend” in a model at some later time.
FWIW the CMC gave the Carolinas some ZR.
Yeah always hesitant to bring up the crusher but it had some similar traits. If I remember it had that convection that models at the time did not pick up on that helped that wave bomb out once it hit the gulf
Honestly this far out I like suppression because we all know more than likely she’s coming north west as we come closer to the event