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Tennessee valley/NC/Va Flizzard (16th)

My thinking is most, if not all, or this that actually does work across the mountains is going to be rain, not snow.
I pity a fool .. almost alwaysssss these type of rates will produce snow ... people always say ehhh I think boundary layer warmmmmm ... the thing is the flakes don’t have enough time to melt cause they will be in very cold air above us.. I also checked the temps on the nam and such models and under those pockets of snow temps can crash to 34 or so respectively .. these will be snow pockets
 
I pity a fool .. almost alwaysssss these type of rates will produce snow ... people always say ehhh I think boundary layer warmmmmm ... the thing is the flakes don’t have enough time to melt cause they will be in very cold air above us.. I also checked the temps on the nam and such models and under those pockets of snow temps can crash to 34 or so respectively .. these will be snow pockets
Hopefully, rates will overcome. I doubt we will get anything falling for it to matter, anyways, haha.
 
It honestly looks like areas further west fare a better chance of a Convective snow shower/flurry given there’s lower dewpoints which allows more room for evaporative cooling, wet bulbs are much lower around WNC/I-77, which allows a lower temp once thats reached, also could tac on to some virga issues, but this reminds me of the flizzard I got at night on December 1st but more Convective, where I had snow/rain falling at 42 degrees, lol 801C2A50-FD8C-4904-B86D-A8815C9A4FBC.png2D5C9107-D9F1-4925-A3E5-75AE136A2E61.png5EBA1B3D-4FA1-4B34-8EF9-7B3D57CD413F.png
 
I'm hoping silently to see some flurries in the morning. Not supposed to but thats all I got this winter is a few flizzards.
 
21z HRRR cranking out several cells at ~40 dbz tomorrow morning. That intensity translates to roughly 1/2" per hour rainfall rate (or 5" per hour as snowfall rate).
Odds of any one spot getting underneath these are low, but, a 15 minute whiteout sure is fun if you get one. ?

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Dense/Dense Ground fog. Low is 31 tonight. I could barely open car doors this morning where it froze so thick last night. But last night was chicken feed to this stuff. Temp has fallen like a rock. You can barely make out neighbors house,but yet make out stars above.
 
I got in on this one.
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I noticed some returns in eastern Alabama. Is anything falling there?
 
Snow event on target for today. Enjoy as it may be the last good snow weekend for a while

Great weekend for back country outdoorsman

AFD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

AS OF 330 AM...A LARGE STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY, BRINGING STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN
BORDER, WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT GETTING GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES
THRU THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.F702876A-ED59-49C4-8445-147C97F68CB7.png
 
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