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Tropical TD9

GaWx said:
If the 18Z GFS were to verify, Tuscaloosa would be in for a whipping but mainly during the afternoon. By gametime, the storm is already passed Tusc. Interesting.
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With Gameday scheduled to be in town for the morning and the all-day tailgating, I wonder if a morning/afternoon only impact forecast would still cause the game to get postponed.
 
chase5ash said:
With Gameday scheduled to be in town for the morning and the all-day tailgating, I wonder if a morning/afternoon only impact forecast would still cause the game to get postponed.
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Yeah I actually think it might clear out for the evening. That's the trend today
 
Brent said:
Yeah I actually think it might clear out for the evening. That's the trend today
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Who cares what the weather is like in the evening during game time ? If the damage is done early in the day, then that's enough to move the game. Don't wanna have a game when there's trees down everywhere and widespread power outages.
 
Seeing a bad trend for the gulf coast in the latest models. Upper level anticylone staying better established over the storm probably a result of the quicker movement. I definitely don't think a weakening storm is a given and it may be strengthening.

Latest HWRF landfall at 110knts.

hwrf-p_shear_09L_31.png
 
From James Spann concerning the Bama / Georgia game:

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Concerning the Bama/Georgia game Saturday night...

*Right off the bat, it is a challenging combination. A top 10 battle in prime time, ESPN College Game Day in down, a visit from the U.S. President, and an approaching hurricane.

*The day Saturday in Tuscaloosa will be windy and wet. Lots of rain, winds gusting to 30/40 mph.

*Greatest concern will be the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes. Tropical tornadoes are typically low topped, short lived, literally under the radar, and dangerous in that providing warnings isn't easy.

*Best possible case for the game... the rain ends around 6pm as the tropical low lifts northward, and the rest of the night will be dry as a slot of dry air works in from the southwest. This is a possibility.

*Worst case... a slower moving tropical low to the west brings soaking rain, wind gusts to 35/40 mph, and the risk of a tornado.

Understand the tropical depression is still disorganized tonight. We need a good low level center so models can initialize the system. That should happen tomorrow. We also have dropsonde data gathered being gathered tonight that will be used in future model runs.

Bottom line... there is a good bit of uncertainty in the forecast tonight, but in 24 hours or so confidence levels will be much higher.

UA Athletics and the SEC are monitoring the weather situation closely.
 
TileDude said:
From James Spann concerning the Bama / Georgia game:

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Concerning the Bama/Georgia game Saturday night...

*Right off the bat, it is a challenging combination. A top 10 battle in prime time, ESPN College Game Day in down, a visit from the U.S. President, and an approaching hurricane.

*The day Saturday in Tuscaloosa will be windy and wet. Lots of rain, winds gusting to 30/40 mph.

*Greatest concern will be the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes. Tropical tornadoes are typically low topped, short lived, literally under the radar, and dangerous in that providing warnings isn't easy.

*Best possible case for the game... the rain ends around 6pm as the tropical low lifts northward, and the rest of the night will be dry as a slot of dry air works in from the southwest. This is a possibility.

*Worst case... a slower moving tropical low to the west brings soaking rain, wind gusts to 35/40 mph, and the risk of a tornado.

Understand the tropical depression is still disorganized tonight. We need a good low level center so models can initialize the system. That should happen tomorrow. We also have dropsonde data gathered being gathered tonight that will be used in future model runs.

Bottom line... there is a good bit of uncertainty in the forecast tonight, but in 24 hours or so confidence levels will be much higher.

UA Athletics and the SEC are monitoring the weather situation closely.
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There is no reason at this point to think that game isn’t being canceled or postponed. There would have to be a major shift.
 
J.C. said:
There is no reason at this point to think that game isn’t being canceled or postponed. There would have to be a major shift.
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My guess is call on what they're going to do comes by Thursday, but yeah, iirc with Matthew 10 years ago, the Georgia - SCar game was moved to Sunday and it ended up not necessarily needing to be.

It's a hard call. It's trended iffier today with Isaias potentially looking worse impact wise, but then it could be mostly out by current game time. At the very least, there won't be good tailgating.
 
Not trying to flex or turn this into a gambling post but this has made me realize there may actually be an edge for us weather nerds on prediction markets. If you already follow models, recon, environmental conditions, and trends more closely than the average person there are probably times when the market is slower or less informed than this community. Obviously nothing is guaranteed but it’s pretty interesting seeing weather knowledge potentially have real value outside of just tracking storms for fun.Kalshi.jpg
 
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Real football teams wouldn't let a little hurricane stop them from playing!!!!!!

 
ForsythSnow said:
Next to no cone movement on the 11 PM advisory, so NHC isn't making any real changes yet. Will see how the ENS cluster in the overnight runs most likely and if they stay East of the track they have.
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But they did slow it down almost 6 hours. Now the NHC track has the center passing by the general Tuscaloosa area near gametime. The prior run had it passing by at 1PM.
 
J.C. said:
There is no reason at this point to think that game isn’t being canceled or postponed. There would have to be a major shift.
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Yeah I mean it's only Tuesday. I feel like they won't decide til the last minute they can to be sure. I do think a big part of it is not just the game itself but game day and the President visiting. It's not just a normal game

It could still be east of them entirely I guess. There have been errors at that range in theory but the NHC is usually very good with tracks

If there ever is a trend with northern moving storms it's usually east

Right when I say that the GFS is basically into the Panhandle
 
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