Downeastnc
Member
No its gonna get hammered in the north GOM...
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Tropical TD9
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
So, we want it to move faster?
Tsappfrog20
Member
If want a hurricane to make landfall yes. I’m not saying I want this but this is what needs to happen in order for it to happen
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lexxnchloe
Member
Poor thing would have been Hazel in 1954
If the 18Z GFS were to verify, Tuscaloosa would be in for a whipping but mainly during the afternoon. By gametime, the storm is already passed Tusc. Interesting.
With Gameday scheduled to be in town for the morning and the all-day tailgating, I wonder if a morning/afternoon only impact forecast would still cause the game to get postponed.
lexxnchloe
Member
Actually move this to the tropical thread. My mistake
Brent
Member
Yeah I actually think it might clear out for the evening. That's the trend today
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Who cares what the weather is like in the evening during game time ? If the damage is done early in the day, then that's enough to move the game. Don't wanna have a game when there's trees down everywhere and widespread power outages.
18z Euro stronger. 974 mb Mobile landfall. I don’t have Pivotal Weather Plus.
University of Alabama athletics just dropped this. Roll Tidejay.p
Member
Did anyone bet actual money on this becoming a hurricane?
Seeing a bad trend for the gulf coast in the latest models. Upper level anticylone staying better established over the storm probably a result of the quicker movement. I definitely don't think a weakening storm is a given and it may be strengthening.
Latest HWRF landfall at 110knts.
Latest HWRF landfall at 110knts.
graphics test
This will be a fascinating test case
From James Spann concerning the Bama / Georgia game:
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Concerning the Bama/Georgia game Saturday night...
*Right off the bat, it is a challenging combination. A top 10 battle in prime time, ESPN College Game Day in down, a visit from the U.S. President, and an approaching hurricane.
*The day Saturday in Tuscaloosa will be windy and wet. Lots of rain, winds gusting to 30/40 mph.
*Greatest concern will be the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes. Tropical tornadoes are typically low topped, short lived, literally under the radar, and dangerous in that providing warnings isn't easy.
*Best possible case for the game... the rain ends around 6pm as the tropical low lifts northward, and the rest of the night will be dry as a slot of dry air works in from the southwest. This is a possibility.
*Worst case... a slower moving tropical low to the west brings soaking rain, wind gusts to 35/40 mph, and the risk of a tornado.
Understand the tropical depression is still disorganized tonight. We need a good low level center so models can initialize the system. That should happen tomorrow. We also have dropsonde data gathered being gathered tonight that will be used in future model runs.
Bottom line... there is a good bit of uncertainty in the forecast tonight, but in 24 hours or so confidence levels will be much higher.
UA Athletics and the SEC are monitoring the weather situation closely.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Concerning the Bama/Georgia game Saturday night...
*Right off the bat, it is a challenging combination. A top 10 battle in prime time, ESPN College Game Day in down, a visit from the U.S. President, and an approaching hurricane.
*The day Saturday in Tuscaloosa will be windy and wet. Lots of rain, winds gusting to 30/40 mph.
*Greatest concern will be the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes. Tropical tornadoes are typically low topped, short lived, literally under the radar, and dangerous in that providing warnings isn't easy.
*Best possible case for the game... the rain ends around 6pm as the tropical low lifts northward, and the rest of the night will be dry as a slot of dry air works in from the southwest. This is a possibility.
*Worst case... a slower moving tropical low to the west brings soaking rain, wind gusts to 35/40 mph, and the risk of a tornado.
Understand the tropical depression is still disorganized tonight. We need a good low level center so models can initialize the system. That should happen tomorrow. We also have dropsonde data gathered being gathered tonight that will be used in future model runs.
Bottom line... there is a good bit of uncertainty in the forecast tonight, but in 24 hours or so confidence levels will be much higher.
UA Athletics and the SEC are monitoring the weather situation closely.
There is no reason at this point to think that game isn’t being canceled or postponed. There would have to be a major shift.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
My guess is call on what they're going to do comes by Thursday, but yeah, iirc with Matthew 10 years ago, the Georgia - SCar game was moved to Sunday and it ended up not necessarily needing to be.
It's a hard call. It's trended iffier today with Isaias potentially looking worse impact wise, but then it could be mostly out by current game time. At the very least, there won't be good tailgating.
CJ from Greenville, SC 15 minute video https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1FjcjqWx6X/
jay.p
Member
Not trying to flex or turn this into a gambling post but this has made me realize there may actually be an edge for us weather nerds on prediction markets. If you already follow models, recon, environmental conditions, and trends more closely than the average person there are probably times when the market is slower or less informed than this community. Obviously nothing is guaranteed but it’s pretty interesting seeing weather knowledge potentially have real value outside of just tracking storms for fun.
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Still a TD at the latest update. I bet TS by the morning.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Next to no cone movement on the 11 PM advisory, so NHC isn't making any real changes yet. Will see how the ENS cluster in the overnight runs most likely and if they stay East of the track they have.
Real football teams wouldn't let a little hurricane stop them from playing!!!!!!
But they did slow it down almost 6 hours. Now the NHC track has the center passing by the general Tuscaloosa area near gametime. The prior run had it passing by at 1PM.
Brent
Member
Yeah I mean it's only Tuesday. I feel like they won't decide til the last minute they can to be sure. I do think a big part of it is not just the game itself but game day and the President visiting. It's not just a normal game
It could still be east of them entirely I guess. There have been errors at that range in theory but the NHC is usually very good with tracks
If there ever is a trend with northern moving storms it's usually east
Right when I say that the GFS is basically into the Panhandle
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I can’t recall the degree of drama related to whether or not an AL home college football game should be moved to another location due to weather. I couldn’t find a comparable situation there. That is likely due to lucky timing of storms not having their biggest impact on game day.
Now there have been well inland games moved from other locations such as the LSU SC game originally scheduled for Columbia on 10/10/2015 to Baton Rouge as a result of devastation/deaths due to the prior weekend’s historic flooding:
Now there have been well inland games moved from other locations such as the LSU SC game originally scheduled for Columbia on 10/10/2015 to Baton Rouge as a result of devastation/deaths due to the prior weekend’s historic flooding:
First GFS run with significant inland wind gusts across much of Alabama
Pretty much Opal+Zeta.
BKWRN29
Member
Typically how more east could we expect it to move? We have a condo in Orange Beach and I am a nervous wreck! Sally was financially crippling to our HOA and I don’t want to go through that again especially this soon!!
The 0Z GFS markedly sped this up compared to the 18Z with it already out of all of AL by 1PM CDT Sat.
JHS
Member
I imagine we will see some movement over the next 24 hours while the actual current center gets nailed down. My hunch is maybe it will tick east a bit still. By tomorrow night we will be inside 48 hours til landfall and should have a really good idea.
I also personally don’t know if that NW bend inland will be as sharp as currently modeled. Feel like there’s been some recent storms that were supposed to move NW after landfall and ended up moving due north/northeast due to jet interaction. Helene comes to mind (not saying this will be anything like Helene)
Your best bet in Orange Beach may be to see this thing go far enough east where you get on the left side of the circulation and avoid the worst of the surge/winds. That feels plausible to me. I really hope everything works out and you avoid any damage
BKWRN29
Member
Thanks! I hope you are correct! I wish it would just weaken to a TS like they were initially saying it would be.I imagine we will see some movement over the next 24 hours while the actual current center gets nailed down. My hunch is maybe it will tick east a bit still. By tomorrow night we will be inside 48 hours til landfall and should have a really good idea.
I also personally don’t know if that NW bend inland will be as sharp as currently modeled. Feel like there’s been some recent storms that were supposed to move NW after landfall and ended up moving due north/northeast due to jet interaction. Helene comes to mind (not saying this will be anything like Helene)
Your best bet in Orange Beach may be to see this thing go far enough east where you get on the left side of the circulation and avoid the worst of the surge/winds. That feels plausible to me. I really hope everything works out and you avoid any damage