Pattern Sweatember

[NCSNOW]

We wedge Day 9-10 time frame off the ops. Especially on 12z gfs.

Also 0z CFS looked Spectacular from same time frame 9/19ish on out into first week of October.

 

[Rain Cold]

It's smoky here in the foothills.

 

[SD]

It rained this morning

 

[Avalanche]

Neat to see the rain training right over and paralleling the Chesapeake Bay, almost as if it were lake effect rain

 

[weather bubba]

It rained this morning

Indeed it did. It caught me off guard a little bit after reading the KRDU forecast discussion which was pretty much ruling out any rain in for the near term period. I'm perfectly content with the light rain we have received the past two nights.

 

[SD]

100 miles SW please

 

[SD]

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 174874View attachment 174875

 

[NoSnowATL]

View attachment 174876
View attachment 174877

Legit

 

[NCSNOW]

Heat wave that was being advertised for next week, Has went up in smoke (at least here for my neck of the woods). Rah NWS has 79 or 80 plastered for high temp maxes. May have something to do with the nice looking qpf map SD posted. Been sidetracked today, so who knows, but I'll gladly take

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

View attachment 174876
View attachment 174877

Is the GFS also showing this much rain ?

 

[1300m]

Heat wave that was being advertised for next week, Has went up in smoke (at least here for my neck of the woods). Rah NWS has 79 or 80 plastered for high temp maxes. May have something to do with the nice looking qpf map SD posted. Been sidetracked today, so who knows, but I'll gladly take

Are you telling me WRAL's "false fall" is going to fail.....again?!



Womp womp.



Now that's a track record you can stand on. Where's my ol' buddy Nate Johnson?

 

[SD]

View attachment 174876
View attachment 174877

Looks like half the eps members are on board now

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Yeah, I can report happily that my NWS has dropped the 90+ predictions and the 12z Euro looked much better compared to the 0z.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Yeah, I can report happily that my NWS has dropped the 90+ predictions and the 12z Euro looked much better compared to the 0z.

They are still showing temps in the upper 80s to near 90 all week in Macon next week.

 

[NoSnowATL]

They are still showing temps in the upper 80s to near 90 all week in Macon next week.

Still September Dewy

 

[tennessee storm]

They are still showing temps in the upper 80s to near 90 all week in Macon next week.

Maybe we can get to October with near 90…. Long range looks very warm

 

[Csa]

NWS has every day in the forecast between 86ºF-89ºF here, so wouldn't take much of an overperformance for more 90s this week. Drying soils should help would think. Since August 23, just 0.02" of rain here

 

[Csa]

Yes that’s true. This time of year we usually have to hope for a tropical system to provide some rain. Last September for instance was extremely wet due to tropical moisture. September probably more than any other month is a feast or famine month in terms of rainfall.

Exactly, August to October are usually pretty dry barring a tropical system. Last year was a great example. 13.09" of rain fell during that 3 month period in 2024, with 11.12" (85%) of it in a 3 day period during Helene. The period finished two inches above average for rainfall due to Helene

 

[GaWx]

Exactly, August to October are usually pretty dry barring a tropical system. Last year was a great example. 13.09" of rain fell during that 3 month period in 2024, with 11.12" (85%) of it in a 3 day period during Helene. The period finished two inches above average for rainfall due to Helene

My location had a remarkable 17.1” of rain in August, 225% of normal, when the SE had no tropical system! Last August I received a whopping 10.9” from Debbie, but the month ended up with 15.33”, less than this August! So, you never know. That’s what makes wx so fascinating to me!

 

[Csa]

My location had a remarkable 17.1” of rain in August, 225% of normal, when the SE had no tropical system! Last August I received a whopping 10.9” from Debbie, but the month ended up with 15.33”, less than this August! So, you never know. That’s what makes wx so fascinating to me!

The closer you get to the coast in the SE, the more rainfall skews to a summer-dominant pattern. Savannah is a much more humid climate, miserable dewpoints, seabreeze front t-storms, etc

 

[JHS]

Well, the Euro has backed off on rain west of I-77, so it looks like it'll stay dry for a long time around here.

 

[SD]

I love the euro

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Only 0.03” here in September so far.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Only 0.03” here in September so far.

0.0 here

 

[SD]

I love the euro

And the 18z 12k, Rgem, and Icon

 

[JHS]

The 18z Euro backs off more. The writing is on the wall it looks like for both Carolinas except maybe far northeast NC.

 

[SD]

Yes

 

[SD]

Double yes

 

[GaWx]

I walked outside again at the park just like I did late afternoon Fri. I had low 70s temps and dewpoints of 60. Despite no breeze, I didn’t sweat at all and actually could feel a very slight chill!

 

[Downeastnc]

Hasn't rained in weeks but I go on vacation and.....

 

[NCSNOW]

@ SD: Latest Euro has company from Graph cast, RGEM and Can Op. Hate to bring the not so pleasant news. I still got the GFS with about 30 miles wiggle room left for MBY.

 

[NCSNOW]

Greensboro sitting at -4.8 BN halfway through the month of Sept. Could be back to back BN Months of greater than -4BN .

 

[jrips27]

 

[GaWx]

Bastardi is mad that this isn’t being highlighted in the NHC TWOs so far. Remember the recent no name system that hit SE NC with extreme flooding along with TS force sustained winds? JB is still mad about that and I don’t blame him.

 

[SD]

 

[SD]

Boy the pattern the rest of this month sucks on the euro suite today.



I just saw that the gfs was somehow worse

 

[SASQUATCH]

Boy the pattern the rest of this month sucks on the euro suite today.



I just saw that the gfs was somehow worse

 

[rusrius]

0.0 since Aug 20 and none forecast the next 7-10 days. Sigh.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Yeah, I'm glad the humidity has stayed away, but the consequence of it is that it hasn't rained in 3 weeks and that's going to extend to a month.

We're getting to the point where we could use some tropical moisture (I'm not even going to say tropical system as that will be taboo for a long time) as while we had good enough rain to keep things green for a while, I'm starting to see brown patches.