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Pattern Sweatember

We wedge Day 9-10 time frame off the ops. Especially on 12z gfs.

Also 0z CFS looked Spectacular from same time frame 9/19ish on out into first week of October.
 
NCSNOW said:
Heat wave that was being advertised for next week, Has went up in smoke (at least here for my neck of the woods). Rah NWS has 79 or 80 plastered for high temp maxes. May have something to do with the nice looking qpf map SD posted. Been sidetracked today, so who knows, but I'll gladly take
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Are you telling me WRAL's "false fall" is going to fail.....again?!

womp.png

Womp womp.

ecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f_anom_7day-1757592000-1758628800-1758628800-40 (2).gif

Now that's a track record you can stand on. Where's my ol' buddy Nate Johnson?
 
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Drizzle Snizzle said:
Yes that’s true. This time of year we usually have to hope for a tropical system to provide some rain. Last September for instance was extremely wet due to tropical moisture. September probably more than any other month is a feast or famine month in terms of rainfall.
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Exactly, August to October are usually pretty dry barring a tropical system. Last year was a great example. 13.09" of rain fell during that 3 month period in 2024, with 11.12" (85%) of it in a 3 day period during Helene. The period finished two inches above average for rainfall due to Helene
 
Csa said:
Exactly, August to October are usually pretty dry barring a tropical system. Last year was a great example. 13.09" of rain fell during that 3 month period in 2024, with 11.12" (85%) of it in a 3 day period during Helene. The period finished two inches above average for rainfall due to Helene
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My location had a remarkable 17.1” of rain in August, 225% of normal, when the SE had no tropical system! Last August I received a whopping 10.9” from Debbie, but the month ended up with 15.33”, less than this August! So, you never know. That’s what makes wx so fascinating to me!
 
GaWx said:
My location had a remarkable 17.1” of rain in August, 225% of normal, when the SE had no tropical system! Last August I received a whopping 10.9” from Debbie, but the month ended up with 15.33”, less than this August! So, you never know. That’s what makes wx so fascinating to me!
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The closer you get to the coast in the SE, the more rainfall skews to a summer-dominant pattern. Savannah is a much more humid climate, miserable dewpoints, seabreeze front t-storms, etc
 
Well, the Euro has backed off on rain west of I-77, so it looks like it'll stay dry for a long time around here.
 
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