Pattern Swamptember 2021

[Myfrotho704_]

Wudge, altho icon shifted the ULL east from 00z

 

[SD]

Wudge, altho icon shifted the ULL east from 00z View attachment 91369

Works for me keeps Sam OTS but we get cool. Depending in how much moisture gets pulled south we might be able to get a day or 2 in the 60s with that

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Damn it ---- this ---- ----

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS looks like the icon now

 

[SD]

GFS looks like the icon now View attachment 91371

Yeah gfs is still the most consolidated with vort over SE Canada but it's certainly a step toward the cutoff solution. I'm not sure it cuts off completely though

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GFS looks like the icon now View attachment 91371

When it comes to wedging down here .. we most definitely can bet on it happening over it not happening

 

[SD]

The soundings just ahead if the backdoor front should be fun

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yeah gfs is still the most consolidated with vort over SE Canada but it's certainly a step toward the cutoff solution. I'm not sure it cuts off completely though

If it does cut off we have to watch potential for tropical moisture getting into the mix and filtering up if there’s any disturbance out near us by then .. if not though it’s a cool wedge for the win

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The soundings just ahead if the backdoor front should be fun

NW flow, steep mid level lapse rates… where do I sign up ?

 

[SD]

Well the gfs is cutoff now it'll be interesting to see if it tries to back SW with the ridge to the west thumbing in over top

 

[SD]

This is a problem for the NE if Sam can't escape NE like Joaquin did

 

[SD]

Lol this run is crazy.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh man the CMC

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Monster hail setup on the CMC

 

[SD]

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

It's hard to trust the gfs in the D5+ at 2m Remember the runs that were 100+ here for last week? I think it does ok inside of D5 but it just gets stupid in the longer range

Unfortunately it'll do the opposite in winter. It'll be way too cold D5+

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Lol this run is crazy. View attachment 91377

This pattern is going to have a lot of twists and turns .. certainly this time period is looking like the most exciting weather we’ve had in a while in regards to weird weather set ups that we have to track day to day to figure out details

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Gfs gives us upper level low flow consistently for a week or so starting next week.. that’s just such an insane pattern with weird weather it could provide … also it has some Fujihara effect going on out there by Sam with two random little low pressures by the NE .. such a weird pattern

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If you want hail (me) then you might like where the euro is headed

 

[Brick Tamland]

Lol this run is crazy. View attachment 91377

That be my birthday, too.