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Pattern Swamptember 2021

Looked at last nights Euro it its nowhere near as warm as the GFS. Temps in the upper 70's to low 80's for most compared to mid to low 90's on the GFS next week. We continually see heat modeled that high in the medium to long range just for it to come way down. Plus we are entering October so realistically the Euro looks more believable at this point.
 
iGRXY said:
Looked at last nights Euro it its nowhere near as warm as the GFS. Temps in the upper 70's to low 80's for most compared to mid to low 90's on the GFS next week. We continually see heat modeled that high in the medium to long range just for it to come way down. Plus we are entering October so realistically the Euro looks more believable at this point.
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Many areas over performed on temps the last handful of days (I hit 90 a couple days ago when the forecast was 86) when many said it was gonna be overmodeled fwiw
 
iGRXY said:
Looked at last nights Euro it its nowhere near as warm as the GFS. Temps in the upper 70's to low 80's for most compared to mid to low 90's on the GFS next week. We continually see heat modeled that high in the medium to long range just for it to come way down. Plus we are entering October so realistically the Euro looks more believable at this point.
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The GFS has been consistently way too warm during that range for a bit now. If you recall when today and tomorrow was in that range, the GFS was indicating that we would be seeing 90s. Now I’m not saying it’s going to be far that far off again, but it’s obvious that right now it’s wanting heat things up too much. Honestly I think the models in general are having a difficult time with the seasonal changes this year… more so than usual
 
Chazwin said:
The GFS has been consistently way too warm during that range for a bit now. If you recall when today and tomorrow was in that range, the GFS was indicating that we would be seeing 90s. Now I’m not saying it’s going to be far that far off again, but it’s obvious that right now it’s wanting heat things up too much. Honestly I think the models in general are having a difficult time with the seasonal changes this year… more so than usual
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The H5 difference the the GFS really is what’s responsible for the heat as well, GFS boots the NE trough/lower heights into the Atlantic, while the euro puts lower heights over us/a cutoff
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Many areas over performed on temps the last handful of days (I hit 90 a couple days ago when the forecast was 86) when many said it was gonna be overmodeled fwiw
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I haven't been overmodeled yet. GFS was spitting out temps in the low to mid 100's almost all summer and I never got above 95 even during the most oppressive heat. It's the end of September going into October, you just aren't going to see temps in the low to mid 90's outside of the very very unusual circumstances like 2019. Lost daytime heating with shorter days and sun angle aren't on the GFS's side. The GFS is also the only model really even showing that right now. UK and CMC are much closer to the EURO.
 
iGRXY said:
I haven't been overmodeled yet. GFS was spitting out temps in the low to mid 100's almost all summer and I never got above 95 even during the most oppressive heat. It's the end of September going into October, you just aren't going to see temps in the low to mid 90's outside of the very very unusual circumstances like 2019. Lost daytime heating with shorter days and sun angle aren't on the GFS's side. The GFS is also the only model really even showing that right now. UK and CMC are much closer to the EURO.
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I’m not talking about this past summer, I’m talking about the last several days, many models were to low, rah hit 90 days ago when models had mid 80s and I was getting called a weenie for saying 90 was possible, not saying it’s gonna hit 90 but I’m just saying, it may get pretty warm again if we don’t trap lower heights on us.
 
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