NAMs look a little more threatening on Wednesday so far
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Pattern Swamptember 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
That’s solid, what’s saving this setup from being more of a tornado threat is the lack of speed shear in the low levels/flow in the low levels is relatively weak 
Followup: the rain has been near constant and widespread much of the day into this evening. There has been no thunder/lightning/wind. Just rain, rain, rain. Sometimes heavy, sometimes moderate or light. Then the heavy would return. Lots of street flooding, made worse this evening by a high tide. On radar, the rain area seems to be stuck with moisture continuing to converge on this area from both the gulf and Atlantic.
0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE SKIDAWAY ISLAND 31.94N 81.03W
09/20/2021 M4.94 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC
0929 PM HEAVY RAIN ISLE OF HOPE 31.98N 81.06W
09/20/2021 M4.08 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC
0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE SANDFLY 32.00N 81.07W
09/20/2021 M4.23 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC
0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE WHITE BLUFF 32.02N 81.11W
09/20/2021 M4.11 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC
0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW SAVANNAH 32.04N 81.09W
09/20/2021 M4.74 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC
0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 W SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.11W
09/20/2021 M6.69 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC
0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW BURROUGHS 31.98N 81.26W
09/20/2021 M5.39 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC
0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE BURROUGHS 31.98N 81.23W
09/20/2021 M4.66 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC
0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW VERNONBURG 31.94N 81.16W
09/20/2021 M5.18 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC
0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW KELLER 31.86N 81.28W
09/20/2021 M4.06 INCH BRYAN GA PUBLIC
0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 ENE KELLER 31.86N 81.22W
09/20/2021 M4.47 INCH BRYAN GA PUBLIC
0929 PM HEAVY RAIN SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.09W
09/20/2021 M5.88 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC
0945 PM HEAVY RAIN SAVANNAH AIRPORT 32.13N 81.20W
09/20/2021 M6.36 INCH CHATHAM GA ASOS
THE SAVANNAH/HILTON HEAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KSAV)
IS UP TO 6.36 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT.
UNOFFICIALLY, THIS NOW RANKS AS THE 17TH WETTEST DAY ON
RECORD ALL TIME(RECORDS GO BACK TO 1871). ADDITIONAL
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
Check out this 500 mb map from the 18Z Euro as of 2 PM and follow how the deep moisture comes NE out of the Gulf and then curls around to a SSE to NNW flow off the Atlantic:
??
That cold front is going to be powerful on Thursday … winds will be whipping the colder air will be filtering in .. models have a distinct temperature and dew point line moving through Thursday morning … fall is about to smack us in the face on Thursday
Models have been trying to print out some big time rain events in the medium- long range .. obviously just noise for now but looks interesting with an upper level low type setup that just gets stuck
"Fall" and "smack."
Temps are still going to be in the mid 80s here, possibly returning to the 90s by the weekend.
Brent
Member
Not pleased to see the 90s returning again this weekend.... It is getting stupid late for this crap. I don't understand why it keeps returning
LovingGulfLows
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Nice looking vintage extra-tropical autumn cyclone. Classic comma shaped radar presentation. I'm so glad interesting weather is back.
NCSNOW
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We will. Gonna be Epic. Theyll be talking about this one for years to come.
Shaggy
Member
Gfs and nam3k both paint some heavy rain over Central eastern NC but each run shifts the bullseye around some. Should be our best rain event in about 4 weeks
Will be interesting to watch temp bust scenarios across NC next two days with the little wedge boundary + where rain sets up.
Breeze feels quite nice this morning.
Yeah feels real nice. RAH mentioned the spread in temps today. I've noticed the low deck of clouds building in from the NE. Hopefully CAD can lock in stronger for our area.
I hope so I wouldn't mind being in one of the corridors that likely walk away with 2-4 inches by Thursday. Unfortunately like always for every 2-4 inch corridor there is going to be a .25-.5 close by
Looks like a couple spins one moving on shore near CHS and another south of Edisto Beach. If the area wasn't about to be pulled inland and elongated we might have had a quick lived tropical system
Boy oh boy were really going to have rounds of tropical moisture and heavy rain .. this should be good for soil moisture ??
66/64 heavy drizzle back home in Spartanburg. 73/69 cloudy here
Well, there are a lot of research papers on the topic all pretty much saying the same thing. Not going there because I know how sensitive a few people are about science and all.