• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Swamptember 2021

pcbjr said:
We need to take up a collection for a snorkel and flippers for Larry @GaWx ...

0459 PM HEAVY RAIN SAVANNAH AIRPORT 32.13N 81.20W
09/20/2021 M5.40 INCH CHATHAM GA ASOS

THE SAVANNAH/HILTON HEAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KSAV)
HAS MEASURED 5.40 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS IS
A NEW DAILY RECORD, BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 2.12
INCHES FROM 1885. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING.
Click to expand...

Followup: the rain has been near constant and widespread much of the day into this evening. There has been no thunder/lightning/wind. Just rain, rain, rain. Sometimes heavy, sometimes moderate or light. Then the heavy would return. Lots of street flooding, made worse this evening by a high tide. On radar, the rain area seems to be stuck with moisture continuing to converge on this area from both the gulf and Atlantic.


0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE SKIDAWAY ISLAND 31.94N 81.03W
09/20/2021 M4.94 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

0929 PM HEAVY RAIN ISLE OF HOPE 31.98N 81.06W
09/20/2021 M4.08 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE SANDFLY 32.00N 81.07W
09/20/2021 M4.23 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE WHITE BLUFF 32.02N 81.11W
09/20/2021 M4.11 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW SAVANNAH 32.04N 81.09W
09/20/2021 M4.74 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 W SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.11W
09/20/2021 M6.69 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW BURROUGHS 31.98N 81.26W
09/20/2021 M5.39 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE BURROUGHS 31.98N 81.23W
09/20/2021 M4.66 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW VERNONBURG 31.94N 81.16W
09/20/2021 M5.18 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW KELLER 31.86N 81.28W
09/20/2021 M4.06 INCH BRYAN GA PUBLIC

0929 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 ENE KELLER 31.86N 81.22W
09/20/2021 M4.47 INCH BRYAN GA PUBLIC

0929 PM HEAVY RAIN SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.09W
09/20/2021 M5.88 INCH CHATHAM GA PUBLIC

0945 PM HEAVY RAIN SAVANNAH AIRPORT 32.13N 81.20W
09/20/2021 M6.36 INCH CHATHAM GA ASOS

THE SAVANNAH/HILTON HEAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KSAV)
IS UP TO 6.36 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT.
UNOFFICIALLY, THIS NOW RANKS AS THE 17TH WETTEST DAY ON
RECORD ALL TIME(RECORDS GO BACK TO 1871). ADDITIONAL
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

Check out this 500 mb map from the 18Z Euro as of 2 PM and follow how the deep moisture comes NE out of the Gulf and then curls around to a SSE to NNW flow off the Atlantic:

ecmop_18_wnd500mb_gc_h_0000.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s solid, what’s saving this setup from being more of a tornado threat is the lack of speed shear in the low levels/flow in the low levels is relatively weak View attachment 91115View attachment 91116View attachment 91117
Click to expand...
That cold front is going to be powerful on Thursday … winds will be whipping the colder air will be filtering in .. models have a distinct temperature and dew point line moving through Thursday morning … fall is about to smack us in the face on Thursday
 
Models have been trying to print out some big time rain events in the medium- long range .. obviously just noise for now but looks interesting with an upper level low type setup that just gets stuck
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
That cold front is going to be powerful on Thursday … winds will be whipping the colder air will be filtering in .. models have a distinct temperature and dew point line moving through Thursday morning … fall is about to smack us in the face on Thursday
Click to expand...

"Fall" and "smack."

Temps are still going to be in the mid 80s here, possibly returning to the 90s by the weekend.
 
Shaggy said:
Gfs and nam3k both paint some heavy rain over Central eastern NC but each run shifts the bullseye around some. Should be our best rain event in about 4 weeks
Click to expand...
I hope so I wouldn't mind being in one of the corridors that likely walk away with 2-4 inches by Thursday. Unfortunately like always for every 2-4 inch corridor there is going to be a .25-.5 close by
 
Brent said:
Not pleased to see the 90s returning again this weekend.... It is getting stupid late for this crap. I don't understand why it keeps returning
Click to expand...


Well, there are a lot of research papers on the topic all pretty much saying the same thing. Not going there because I know how sensitive a few people are about science and all.
 
NAM is more sold on a isolated threat for tornadoes, really don’t know what the SPC is doing lol 9ECB54F0-B961-4216-B3D6-6B687EE2209A.png2492A766-B3C2-4EEF-8237-6DF29F1A7588.png7EDC3087-753B-4679-9CA5-915E30780AA2.png
 
I’m really worried the flash flooding scenario isn’t getting enough attention .. certainly seems as if this fire house is going to be doing a lot of training over the same places .. let’s see how heavy the rain can get in the afternoon and that’ll really determine how bad flash flooding gets over central NC
 
The temperature and dew point drop is incredible .. 10-13 degrees drop in an hour in like places .. this will be a situation where the high temp occurs at midnight at in the 70s but then you wake up and it’s in the 50s and upper 40s for some in western NC Thursday morning EBB40CA5-DCE2-461C-8EC6-AEB4AC200371.jpeg96030F1A-E221-4316-986A-61E0FB4A6153.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yep no shot in over preforming totals right ?
Click to expand...

You can't go wrong when you see this
tran.gif
We've also started to see some modest ML cape over the area so we should start setting more convective elements to the band in our area. I doubt we see anything crazy like 2-3-4 inch totals in my area or yours through dark but the vort max near CHS becomes a wild card tonight.

I'm up to 75/75 so low level moisture is really increasing
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top