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Misc Summer 2018 seasonal predictions

It just amazes me that Dallas had 71 days of 100+ in 2011. I don't think Atlanta has had that many days 100+ in the last 150 years combined.
 
Will it be hot, mild, or average? Here's weatherbell's prediction from last year. Wasn't it cooler than normal last summer??? I have a terrible short-term memory.
June_August_2017_Update.png
Now watch it be the opposite
 
Sounds like its pretty much impossible to get a cool, dry summer in Atlanta with low humidity. Its either gonna be hot and dry or cooler and wet with lots of humidity.
and more and more lately, it's both overly hot AND humid.. I think the Gulf of Mexico is the primary reason, and the seasonal jet streams bringing in dryer air too far north. (notice I didn't even mention that three letter curse word, AGW....)
 
the unique geography of the US and the Gulf of Mexico's effects on weather is an interesting subject in itself. We don't get the world's worst tornadoes by accident.
 
A large component of the summertime rainfall in the SE US is from landfalling tropical cyclones. Until we know the overall behavior of the hurricane season good luck predicting summertime temps in the SE US
 
A large component of the summertime rainfall in the SE US is from landfalling tropical cyclones. Until we know the overall behavior of the hurricane season good luck predicting summertime temps in the SE US

Whereas I don't necessarily disagree with this, I will say that May-June rainfall appears to be pretty crucial based on my Atlanta research and heavy May-June rainfall often occurred without the influence of a landfalling TC. That's not surprising since that is early in the tropical season. So, if May-June rainfall, regardless of tropical influences, could be predicted well, then I think that would give a pretty good hint of overall summer temperature prospects.

KATL rainfall stats for the 9 years of hottest of 92 or lower:

1884: 10.73" in June, alone, which is the 2nd wettest June on record, and is near three times the normal for June: no TC influence
1885: 28" of rainfall May-Sep vs norm under 20": no TC influence before 8/29 and hottest through 8/28 only 91
1910: 11.59" May-June vs norm near 7.5": no TC influence
1961: 35" Feb-June including 7.38" June, vs 26" normal: no TC influence
1965: 7.15" June, nearly double the normal: only 0.78" from TS #1 6/14-5
1973: 7.14" May, nearly double the normal: no TC influence
1974: 11" July-Aug: no TC influence
2003: 22" May-July, nearly double the normal: 3.68" TS Bill 6/30-7/2
2013: 28" May-Aug, nearly double the normal: 4.14" TS Andrea 6/5; possibly 1.82" indirect effects TS Dorian 7/3

The above shows that TCs had little to no influence on the lack of heat in 7 of the 9 years. The other 2, 2003 and 2013, were influenced at least moderately.
 
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Whereas I don't necessarily disagree with this, I will say that May-June rainfall appears to be pretty crucial based on my Atlanta research and heavy May-June rainfall often occurred without the influence of a landfalling TC. That's not surprising since that is early in the tropical season. So, if May-June rainfall, regardless of tropical influences, could be predicted well, then I think that would give a pretty good hint of overall summer temperature prospects.

KATL rainfall stats for the 9 years of hottest of 92 or lower:

1884: 10.73" in June, alone, which is the 2nd wettest June on record, and is near three times the normal for June: no TC influence
1885: 28" of rainfall May-Sep vs norm under 20": no TC influence before 8/29 and hottest through 8/28 only 91
1910: 11.59" May-June vs norm near 7.5": no TC influence
1961: 35" Feb-June including 7.38" June, vs 26" normal: no TC influence
1965: 7.15" June, nearly double the normal: only 0.78" from TS #1 6/14-5
1973: 7.14" May, nearly double the normal: no TC influence
1974: 11" July-Aug: no TC influence
2003: 22" May-July, nearly double the normal: 3.68" TS Bill 6/30-7/2
2013: 28" May-Aug, nearly double the normal: 4.14" TS Andrea 6/5; possibly 1.82" indirect effects TS Dorian 7/3

The above shows that TCs had little to no influence on the lack of heat in 7 of the 9 years. The other 2, 2003 and 2013, were influenced at least moderately.
FWIW, by and large my summer rain is largely due to daily or almost daily colliding sea breeze fronts (though Irma did one heck of a job on the wetlands down here last year) ...
Now, back to the Cedar Key clams ...
 
Same here! I predict 97+ degrees for more then 5 days this summer!.
Unless there is a drought the chances are lower for that kind of heat. I could see approaching mid 90's and muggy but not 100 with soil moisture higher than normal.
 
For what city ?

I wonder if you'll be allowed to do the Twin Cities, even though it isn't in the SE, in case you move there. Or the nearest Indiana wx station if you stay there. After all, Brent isn't in the SE either.
 
I would think your own since the votes are public. You can see who voted what number for their area unless there isn't one, then only the member knows that.
The poll says SE so my vote includes the whole SE; including that stretch around and NW of Columbia, SC.
For Hogtown (IMBY) - here's my vote for 2 to 4 at most, and if they happen, it'll surely be before the seabreeze fronts emerge and converge (assuming of course it is a "normal" summer).
 
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Now I see the poll. The amazing thing is that KATL had an average # of 100+ days of the following:

1879-1924: only 0.1/yr or only 3 days in 46 years!
1925-1954: 1.2/yr (37 in 30 years)
1955-1979: 0.0/yr..that's right none during those 25 years!
1980-2017: 1.1/yr (42 in 38 years)
 
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