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Misc Summer 2018 seasonal predictions

packfan98

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Will it be hot, mild, or average? Here's weatherbell's prediction from last year. Wasn't it cooler than normal last summer??? I have a terrible short-term memory.
June_August_2017_Update.png
 
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Not sure what to think yet. If we are supposed to head into an El-Nino, I'd think we come out to average to slightly above. For precipitation, I'd have to go with above average rainfall for many areas. In the event we go neutral and that's it, I'd have to say above average and slightly below normal precipitation. In the unlikely event of a continuing La-Nina, well above on temps and below on precip.
 
I’m thinking we’re moving towards a niño so my best guess is a warm front end (while niña hangs around) to spring/summer with cooler backend. Just in time for a warm front end to next winter
 
I predict this will be the year without a summer. Atlanta will not reach 90 degrees.
Not sure how that would happen. Would be nice to see another year in the 70s and 80s all summer, but unless we get tons and tons of rain all summer and lots of weird weather I can't see ATL itself not reaching 90. Maybe Larry has some historical stats to see if this has happened before, since I am skeptical ATL can go without 90 one summer except for the infamous Year without a Summer.
 
Not sure how that would happen. Would be nice to see another year in the 70s and 80s all summer, but unless we get tons and tons of rain all summer and lots of weird weather I can't see ATL itself not reaching 90. Maybe Larry has some historical stats to see if this has happened before, since I am skeptical ATL can go without 90 one summer except for the infamous Year without a Summer.
The hottest Atlanta got in 2003 was 91 and it only reached 90 like 7 days. 6 of those days the temp was 90 so I think its possible.
 
Not sure how that would happen. Would be nice to see another year in the 70s and 80s all summer, but unless we get tons and tons of rain all summer and lots of weird weather I can't see ATL itself not reaching 90. Maybe Larry has some historical stats to see if this has happened before, since I am skeptical ATL can go without 90 one summer except for the infamous Year without a Summer.

Since 1879, this has not happened. However, it almost did in 1967, when the highest was right at 90 two times. The hottest was 91 twice in the 1880s with one of these being in October and only 90 for the hottest during the prior summer. There have been 7 years with the hottest of 92, including 2013 and 2003.

Edit: How many of these 9 summers were during oncoming El Ninos? The two 91s (in the 1880s) were during oncoming weak Ninos while 1965 (92 for the hottest) was during an oncoming strong Nino. The other 6 were not during El Nino. So, nothing clearcut related to ENSO based on this at least.

As Forsyth alluded to, not being too hot is pretty much all about rainfall/wet soils and late spring/early summer rainfall is crucial.
 
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Since 1879, this has not happened. However, it almost did in 1967, when the highest was right at 90 two times. The hottest was 91 twice in the 1880s. There have been 7 years with the hottest of 92, including 2013 and 2003.

Edit: How many of these 9 summers were during oncoming El Ninos? The two 91s (in the 1880s) were during oncoming weak Ninos while 1965 (92 for the hottest) was during an oncoming strong Nino. The other 6 were not during El Nino. So, nothing clearcut related to ENSO based on this at least.

As Forsyth alluded to, not being too hot is pretty much all about rainfall/wet soils and late spring/early summer rainfall is crucial.
Are you saying that it's impossible to have a dry summer that is cooler than normal in Atlanta ? Is the ONLY way to get cooler than normal temps in the summer to have clouds and/or rain ?
 
Are you saying that it's impossible to have a dry summer that is cooler than normal in Atlanta ? Is the ONLY way to get cooler than normal temps in the summer to have clouds and/or rain ?

Not impossible but very highly unlikely.
 
Are you saying that it's impossible to have a dry summer that is cooler than normal in Atlanta ? Is the ONLY way to get cooler than normal temps in the summer to have clouds and/or rain ?
From the way I see it, yes it is unless something weird happens or a large volcano blows. ATL is just too far south and has far too much exposure to the SER and overall warm flows during the summer months. To get below 90 is possible but very unlikely in itself. As Larry stated, we've come close a few times, so it's not impossible to be below 90, but that requires clouds and rain. You have to have lots of clouds and rain to keep the temps down. In addition, sun angle also is way too high compared to northern cities, leaving more time for the sun to be in the sky and more heating.
 
From the way I see it, yes it is unless something weird happens or a large volcano blows. ATL is just too far south and has far too much exposure to the SER and overall warm flows during the summer months. To get below 90 is possible but very unlikely in itself. As Larry stated, we've come close a few times, so it's not impossible to be below 90, but that requires clouds and rain. You have to have lots of clouds and rain to keep the temps down. In addition, sun angle also is way too high compared to northern cities, leaving more time for the sun to be in the sky and more heating.

To illustrate this better, here are some KATL rainfall stats for the 9 years of hottest of 92 or lower:

1884: 10.73" in June, alone, which is the 2nd wettest June on record, and is near three times the normal for June.
1885: 28" of rainfall May-Sep vs norm under 20"
1910: 11.59" May-June vs norm near 7.5"
1961: 35" Feb-June including 7.38" June, vs 26" normal
1965: 7.15" June, nearly double the normal
1973: 7.14" May, nearly double the normal
1974: 11" July-Aug
2003: 22" May-July, nearly double the normal
2013: 28" May-Aug, nearly double the normal

Edit: This tells me that heavy May-June rainfall is especially crucial to allow for wet enough soils early in summer to make dry soils by late summer much less likely. OTOH, that may mean higher dewpoints even if lower heat indices.
 
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Sounds like its pretty much impossible to get a cool, dry summer in Atlanta with low humidity. Its either gonna be hot and dry or cooler and wet with lots of humidity.
 
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