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Misc Summer 2018 seasonal predictions

packfan98

packfan98

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Will it be hot, mild, or average? Here's weatherbell's prediction from last year. Wasn't it cooler than normal last summer??? I have a terrible short-term memory.
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Not sure what to think yet. If we are supposed to head into an El-Nino, I'd think we come out to average to slightly above. For precipitation, I'd have to go with above average rainfall for many areas. In the event we go neutral and that's it, I'd have to say above average and slightly below normal precipitation. In the unlikely event of a continuing La-Nina, well above on temps and below on precip.
 
I’m thinking we’re moving towards a niño so my best guess is a warm front end (while niña hangs around) to spring/summer with cooler backend. Just in time for a warm front end to next winter
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I predict this will be the year without a summer. Atlanta will not reach 90 degrees.
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Not sure how that would happen. Would be nice to see another year in the 70s and 80s all summer, but unless we get tons and tons of rain all summer and lots of weird weather I can't see ATL itself not reaching 90. Maybe Larry has some historical stats to see if this has happened before, since I am skeptical ATL can go without 90 one summer except for the infamous Year without a Summer.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not sure how that would happen. Would be nice to see another year in the 70s and 80s all summer, but unless we get tons and tons of rain all summer and lots of weird weather I can't see ATL itself not reaching 90. Maybe Larry has some historical stats to see if this has happened before, since I am skeptical ATL can go without 90 one summer except for the infamous Year without a Summer.
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The hottest Atlanta got in 2003 was 91 and it only reached 90 like 7 days. 6 of those days the temp was 90 so I think its possible.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not sure how that would happen. Would be nice to see another year in the 70s and 80s all summer, but unless we get tons and tons of rain all summer and lots of weird weather I can't see ATL itself not reaching 90. Maybe Larry has some historical stats to see if this has happened before, since I am skeptical ATL can go without 90 one summer except for the infamous Year without a Summer.
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Since 1879, this has not happened. However, it almost did in 1967, when the highest was right at 90 two times. The hottest was 91 twice in the 1880s with one of these being in October and only 90 for the hottest during the prior summer. There have been 7 years with the hottest of 92, including 2013 and 2003.

Edit: How many of these 9 summers were during oncoming El Ninos? The two 91s (in the 1880s) were during oncoming weak Ninos while 1965 (92 for the hottest) was during an oncoming strong Nino. The other 6 were not during El Nino. So, nothing clearcut related to ENSO based on this at least.

As Forsyth alluded to, not being too hot is pretty much all about rainfall/wet soils and late spring/early summer rainfall is crucial.
 
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GaWx said:
Since 1879, this has not happened. However, it almost did in 1967, when the highest was right at 90 two times. The hottest was 91 twice in the 1880s. There have been 7 years with the hottest of 92, including 2013 and 2003.

Edit: How many of these 9 summers were during oncoming El Ninos? The two 91s (in the 1880s) were during oncoming weak Ninos while 1965 (92 for the hottest) was during an oncoming strong Nino. The other 6 were not during El Nino. So, nothing clearcut related to ENSO based on this at least.

As Forsyth alluded to, not being too hot is pretty much all about rainfall/wet soils and late spring/early summer rainfall is crucial.
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Are you saying that it's impossible to have a dry summer that is cooler than normal in Atlanta ? Is the ONLY way to get cooler than normal temps in the summer to have clouds and/or rain ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Are you saying that it's impossible to have a dry summer that is cooler than normal in Atlanta ? Is the ONLY way to get cooler than normal temps in the summer to have clouds and/or rain ?
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Not impossible but very highly unlikely.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Are you saying that it's impossible to have a dry summer that is cooler than normal in Atlanta ? Is the ONLY way to get cooler than normal temps in the summer to have clouds and/or rain ?
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From the way I see it, yes it is unless something weird happens or a large volcano blows. ATL is just too far south and has far too much exposure to the SER and overall warm flows during the summer months. To get below 90 is possible but very unlikely in itself. As Larry stated, we've come close a few times, so it's not impossible to be below 90, but that requires clouds and rain. You have to have lots of clouds and rain to keep the temps down. In addition, sun angle also is way too high compared to northern cities, leaving more time for the sun to be in the sky and more heating.
 
ForsythSnow said:
From the way I see it, yes it is unless something weird happens or a large volcano blows. ATL is just too far south and has far too much exposure to the SER and overall warm flows during the summer months. To get below 90 is possible but very unlikely in itself. As Larry stated, we've come close a few times, so it's not impossible to be below 90, but that requires clouds and rain. You have to have lots of clouds and rain to keep the temps down. In addition, sun angle also is way too high compared to northern cities, leaving more time for the sun to be in the sky and more heating.
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To illustrate this better, here are some KATL rainfall stats for the 9 years of hottest of 92 or lower:

1884: 10.73" in June, alone, which is the 2nd wettest June on record, and is near three times the normal for June.
1885: 28" of rainfall May-Sep vs norm under 20"
1910: 11.59" May-June vs norm near 7.5"
1961: 35" Feb-June including 7.38" June, vs 26" normal
1965: 7.15" June, nearly double the normal
1973: 7.14" May, nearly double the normal
1974: 11" July-Aug
2003: 22" May-July, nearly double the normal
2013: 28" May-Aug, nearly double the normal

Edit: This tells me that heavy May-June rainfall is especially crucial to allow for wet enough soils early in summer to make dry soils by late summer much less likely. OTOH, that may mean higher dewpoints even if lower heat indices.
 
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Sounds like its pretty much impossible to get a cool, dry summer in Atlanta with low humidity. Its either gonna be hot and dry or cooler and wet with lots of humidity.
 
It just amazes me that Dallas had 71 days of 100+ in 2011. I don't think Atlanta has had that many days 100+ in the last 150 years combined.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Sounds like its pretty much impossible to get a cool, dry summer in Atlanta with low humidity. Its either gonna be hot and dry or cooler and wet with lots of humidity.
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and more and more lately, it's both overly hot AND humid.. I think the Gulf of Mexico is the primary reason, and the seasonal jet streams bringing in dryer air too far north. (notice I didn't even mention that three letter curse word, AGW....)
 
the unique geography of the US and the Gulf of Mexico's effects on weather is an interesting subject in itself. We don't get the world's worst tornadoes by accident.
 
A large component of the summertime rainfall in the SE US is from landfalling tropical cyclones. Until we know the overall behavior of the hurricane season good luck predicting summertime temps in the SE US
 
Webberweather53 said:
A large component of the summertime rainfall in the SE US is from landfalling tropical cyclones. Until we know the overall behavior of the hurricane season good luck predicting summertime temps in the SE US
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Whereas I don't necessarily disagree with this, I will say that May-June rainfall appears to be pretty crucial based on my Atlanta research and heavy May-June rainfall often occurred without the influence of a landfalling TC. That's not surprising since that is early in the tropical season. So, if May-June rainfall, regardless of tropical influences, could be predicted well, then I think that would give a pretty good hint of overall summer temperature prospects.

KATL rainfall stats for the 9 years of hottest of 92 or lower:

1884: 10.73" in June, alone, which is the 2nd wettest June on record, and is near three times the normal for June: no TC influence
1885: 28" of rainfall May-Sep vs norm under 20": no TC influence before 8/29 and hottest through 8/28 only 91
1910: 11.59" May-June vs norm near 7.5": no TC influence
1961: 35" Feb-June including 7.38" June, vs 26" normal: no TC influence
1965: 7.15" June, nearly double the normal: only 0.78" from TS #1 6/14-5
1973: 7.14" May, nearly double the normal: no TC influence
1974: 11" July-Aug: no TC influence
2003: 22" May-July, nearly double the normal: 3.68" TS Bill 6/30-7/2
2013: 28" May-Aug, nearly double the normal: 4.14" TS Andrea 6/5; possibly 1.82" indirect effects TS Dorian 7/3

The above shows that TCs had little to no influence on the lack of heat in 7 of the 9 years. The other 2, 2003 and 2013, were influenced at least moderately.
 
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GaWx said:
Whereas I don't necessarily disagree with this, I will say that May-June rainfall appears to be pretty crucial based on my Atlanta research and heavy May-June rainfall often occurred without the influence of a landfalling TC. That's not surprising since that is early in the tropical season. So, if May-June rainfall, regardless of tropical influences, could be predicted well, then I think that would give a pretty good hint of overall summer temperature prospects.

KATL rainfall stats for the 9 years of hottest of 92 or lower:

1884: 10.73" in June, alone, which is the 2nd wettest June on record, and is near three times the normal for June: no TC influence
1885: 28" of rainfall May-Sep vs norm under 20": no TC influence before 8/29 and hottest through 8/28 only 91
1910: 11.59" May-June vs norm near 7.5": no TC influence
1961: 35" Feb-June including 7.38" June, vs 26" normal: no TC influence
1965: 7.15" June, nearly double the normal: only 0.78" from TS #1 6/14-5
1973: 7.14" May, nearly double the normal: no TC influence
1974: 11" July-Aug: no TC influence
2003: 22" May-July, nearly double the normal: 3.68" TS Bill 6/30-7/2
2013: 28" May-Aug, nearly double the normal: 4.14" TS Andrea 6/5; possibly 1.82" indirect effects TS Dorian 7/3

The above shows that TCs had little to no influence on the lack of heat in 7 of the 9 years. The other 2, 2003 and 2013, were influenced at least moderately.
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FWIW, by and large my summer rain is largely due to daily or almost daily colliding sea breeze fronts (though Irma did one heck of a job on the wetlands down here last year) ...
Now, back to the Cedar Key clams ...
 
Jeremy Camp said:
Same here! I predict 97+ degrees for more then 5 days this summer!.
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Unless there is a drought the chances are lower for that kind of heat. I could see approaching mid 90's and muggy but not 100 with soil moisture higher than normal.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
For what city ?
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I wonder if you'll be allowed to do the Twin Cities, even though it isn't in the SE, in case you move there. Or the nearest Indiana wx station if you stay there. After all, Brent isn't in the SE either.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I would think your own since the votes are public. You can see who voted what number for their area unless there isn't one, then only the member knows that.
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The poll says SE so my vote includes the whole SE; including that stretch around and NW of Columbia, SC.
For Hogtown (IMBY) - here's my vote for 2 to 4 at most, and if they happen, it'll surely be before the seabreeze fronts emerge and converge (assuming of course it is a "normal" summer).
 
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Now I see the poll. The amazing thing is that KATL had an average # of 100+ days of the following:

1879-1924: only 0.1/yr or only 3 days in 46 years!
1925-1954: 1.2/yr (37 in 30 years)
1955-1979: 0.0/yr..that's right none during those 25 years!
1980-2017: 1.1/yr (42 in 38 years)
 
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