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Tropical Subtropical Storm Alberto

stormcentral

stormcentral

First Alert Wx
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Models have been consistent on areas of tropical development from the carribean or into the gulf of mexico or the straits of florida; Multiple runs of different models showing this tropical system / & potential cyclone that develops around the May 19-25 period. Quite in southeast for now.
 
Yeah this has been consistent runs for a while now. Strong signal of something to brew up. May the season began.
 
shout out to Gawx... is there any correlation with early tropical development and warm/cool summers, or following winters? This sort of statistical analysis seems right up your alley.
 
@whamby I'll hopefully get back to you when I get more time.

There have been only 4 TCs on record to form in the W Caribbean since 1851 during 5/11-20 (so about one every 40 years...so not even close to impossible though rare) as per this map with 2 of the 4 hitting FL:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/may_11_20.png

One of the 4 was Alma of 1970, which became a cat 1 H in the W Caribbean and later hit FL but only as a TD:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The other FL hit was storm 1 of 1916, which hit FL as only a minimal TS:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Another of the 4 was TS #1 of 1933, which never got close to the US:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The 4th was TS #2 of 1887, which affected Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas, but which missed the US:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

So, in summary, 1970, 1933, 1916, and 1887 with 1970 hitting FL as a TD and 1916 hitting FL as a minimal TS. This info tells me not to bet the farm against a W Caribbean genesis this mid May, but to bet a whole lot on there not being a H hit on the US from a potential mid May genesis. It is too early in the season to think of that as a reasonable possibility per this climo going back to 1851.
 
Looks like the CMC may be slowly drifting towards the GFS and FV3's direction. I looked at the 850mb vort map and saw the overall origin of the low that both models are creating. The GFS takes a spin that originates near or south of Nicaragua and sends it east, developing it into the storm that heads towards the US. However, the CMC takes that same spin, which originates around day 5 or 7 and takes it west into the Pacific, creating a low there. The CMC, however, drifts that low east after a short time into Central America and has the overall flow NE at the end of the run with there still being some spin. Have to watch to see if any other runs do this, as 0Z did this as well.
 
Brent said:
I dunno what the GFS is smoking but sure let's have a storm for the entire east coast :p
Click to expand...

I don't think of one every 40 years as too low to consider that a genesis MAY actually happen with every GFS/FV3 run developing it there. However, I also wouldn't bet on it happening as the GFS in recent years has had cases where run after run for many days in a row had a W Caribbean genesis and nothing ended up forming. Also, I believe that the GFS/FV3 is way too strong even if there were to be a genesis. Run after run has had a cat 2 H but there has been only 1 H form from a genesis there in mid May since 1851 and that was only a cat 1 for only 12 hours while still in the W Caribbean with a max of 80 mph!
 
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GaWx said:
I don't think of one every 40 years as too low to consider that a genesis MAY actually happen with every GFS/FV3 run developing it there. However, I also wouldn't bet on it happening as the GFS in recent years has had cases where run after run for many days in a row had a W Caribbean genesis and nothing ended up forming. Also, I believe that the GFS/FV3 is way too strong even if there were to be a genesis. Run after run has had a cat 2 H but there has been only 1 H form from a genesis there in mid May since 1851 and that was only a cat 1 for only 12 hours while still in the W Caribbean with a max of 80 mph!
Click to expand...

Right I dont totally disbelieve the idea of something forming but the idea of some full blown hurricane is a little hard to grasp
 
GaWx said:
I don't think of one every 40 years as too low to consider that a genesis MAY actually happen with every GFS/FV3 run developing it there. However, I also wouldn't bet on it happening as the GFS in recent years has had cases where run after run for many days in a row had a W Caribbean genesis and nothing ended up forming. Also, I believe that the GFS/FV3 is way too strong even if there were to be a genesis. Run after run has had a cat 2 H but there has been only 1 H form from a genesis there in mid May since 1851 and that was only a cat 1 for only 12 hours while still in the W Caribbean with a max of 80 mph!
Click to expand...
Larry,
As Tony might say ... Here's hoping the abacus is right for our sakes and this :oops: isn't a statistical anomaly ... Not prepared yet this year ... (though actually never am, nor for that matter is anybody, really) ...

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh300-330.gif
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
As Tony might say ... Here's hoping the abacus is right for our sakes and this :oops: isn't a statistical anomaly ... Not prepared yet this year ... (though actually never am, nor for that matter is anybody, really) ...
Click to expand...

Don't worry, Phil. Based on the fact that there has been only 1 TC recorded since way back in 1851 with a 5/11-20 genesis in the W Caribbean that reached H strength and that just for 12 hours peaking at only 80 mph well down in the Caribbean, this 12Z FV3 borderline cat 2/cat 3 that hardly weakens over N FL ain't happening.
 
GaWx said:
Don't worry, Phil. Based on the fact that there has been only 1 TC recorded since way back in 1851 with a 5/11-20 genesis in the W Caribbean that reached H strength and that just for 12 hours peaking at only 80 mph well down in the Caribbean, this 12Z FV3 borderline cat 2/cat 3 that hardly weakens over N FL ain't happening.
Click to expand...
Wasn't/am not worried ... LOL ... just figured it was worth a shout your way for the fun of it ... :eek:
Actually, I'm real interested in how the models handle now until 7/31; will be a good gauge for the real season ...
As always, Larry,
Best!
Phil

Edit at 8:50 PM: Larry, I'm now just a tad bit "interested" ...

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh330-330.gif
 
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The gfs has lost it :eek:

2iut47q.jpg
 
Actually, statistics notwithstanding (which I pray win the day), this is a bit disconcerting, being so many runs in a row ... plenty of time for a drastic change for the better, but 2 more days of this and June prep starts in May ... :( In any event, even 14 days or so out, I'm getting just a tad bit "interested"

2018051018_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_348.gif 2018051018_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_360.gif
 
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@pcbjr and others: Keep in mind folks how the GFS often way overstrenghtened TCs last season. Example: remember those numerous Irma runs down below 900 mbs? Many of the runs turned out to have Irma 30+ mb too strong. This may be the reason the GFS/FV3 are so ridiculously strong with this new potential. Could it be 30 mb too strong and we instead get something more like 1000 mb when/if it gets to the US, if there's any TC at all? I say yes and climo backs this up.
Phil, I'd say prepare for the small chance for a TS impact.
 
which model performed best inside 7 days last tropical season? Seems like the GFS was, but constantly strengthened storms too much.
 
I would not put any weight in the GFS solution being shown. It has consistently been backing up the supposed development and shifted it south too. It typically struggles early in the season as the EPAC starts heating up. None of the other globals like the Euro, CMC or German have anything forming and imo the GFS and FV-3 are both out to lunch on this.
 
Slight bit of difference, but the dadgum thing keeps showing up in some form or fashion ... like a pesky gnat when trying to eat outside ...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh264-324.gif gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh264-336.gif fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh276-312.gif
 
German model has a nice system forming around the same time as the GFS. If we can get the euro to jump on board with development then we might have something.
upload_2018-5-13_2-9-7.png
 
My latest thoughts fwiw:

1. The GFS/FV3 runs early to mid last week were consistently developing it on or around 5/18-9. That's why I was then analyzing W Car geneses during 5/11-20 instead of during 5/21-31. Now the geneses seem to be centered around 5/20-2.

2. The only place I've seen GFS phantoms sticking around for a week with no forecast time slippage was, interestingly enough, in the W Car. though that was more later season than early season. That's why I think there is a good side to mentioning TC geneses way out in time. We can look back.

3. Regarding the GFS runs that have had cat 2+ strength, don't forget that the GFS on numerous runs had Irma near or I think even below 900 mbs in some cases between Cuba and S FL. Those runs turned out to be close to 30 mb too strong.

4. I continue to think there is a low % as opposed to zero % threat to FL in late May from a W Car genesis though not of the crazy strengths many GFS runs have been showing. I think any FL storm would very likely be no stronger than TS. This takes into account both climo and the tendency of the GFS to overstrengthen last season.
 
accu35 said:
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png
I know it's the FV3, but is that a 99L? Lol!! 90hrs out
Click to expand...

Good catch as this is a system that already exists to the south and will likely turn out to be a very nice rainmaker for parts of the SE US. This has a decent chance to become a STD or possibly a STS. There is even a chance for it to be one a TD and a slight chance for TS status to be reached though SSTs in the N Gulf are not very warm and may not support a TC.
To clarify to the readers, this has nothing to do with the GFS/FV3 modeled storm for later.
 
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GaWx said:
My latest thoughts fwiw:

1. The GFS/FV3 runs early to mid last week were consistently developing it on or around 5/18-9. That's why I was then analyzing W Car geneses during 5/11-20 instead of during 5/21-31. Now the geneses seem to be centered around 5/20-2.

2. The only place I've seen GFS phantoms sticking around for a week with no forecast time slippage was, interestingly enough, in the W Car. though that was more later season than early season. That's why I think there is a good side to mentioning TC geneses way out in time. We can look back.

3. Regarding the GFS runs that have had cat 2+ strength, don't forget that the GFS on numerous runs had Irma near or I think even below 900 mbs in some cases between Cuba and S FL. Those runs turned out to be close to 30 mb too strong.

4. I continue to think there is a low % as opposed to zero % threat to FL in late May from a W Car genesis though not of the crazy strengths many GFS runs have been showing. I think any FL storm would very likely be no stronger than TS. This takes into account both climo and the tendency of the GFS to overstrengthen last season.
Click to expand...
With that, Larry, I feel comfortable taking a Sunday afternoon nap ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Are we still allowed to toss the 18Z GFS (and for that matter the 18Z from new FV3 as well)?
Click to expand...

Always for the 18Z run of ANY model on any day. That's one of the biggest benefits of being a southernwx member. I may be mistaken, but I do believe that southernwx is the ONLY wx BB that includes for no charge the option of any member tossing the 18Z anytime that member chooses to do so. I think that's why they proudly have "we toss the 18Z" on one of their tshirts. In case anyone thinks American includes anything like that as part of their membership, think again. They never offered that to me. :( ;)
 
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Phil, thank goodness you were able to toss the 18Z. The 0Z GFS has totally backed off of an open W Caribbean genesis with a further delay and genesis now further west close to C America. lol Oh GFS, how we love you for W Car TC genesis accuracy....not! lol
 
The GFS has been crazy in that it had been showing a cat 2 H (bordering on cat 3 in some cases) going into FL on run after run. Also, the progged genesis date has been slipping again. It was originally just 4-5 days from now in the W Caribbean (5/18-19).

So, originally it was a tight genesis 5/18-9 and now on today's 6Z it is only a broad low with genesis on 5/24 with only a much more believable 1000 mb low hitting FL instead of a 970 mb cat 2 H. Is that even the same thing? Even if it is, that's a massive change in strength and timing. And we still don't know if there will be a May W Caribbean TC at all yet.
 
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GaWx said:
The GFS has been crazy in that it had been showing a cat 2 H (bordering on cat 3 in some cases) going into FL on run after run. Also, the progged genesis date has been slipping again. It was originally just 4-5 days from now in the W Caribbean (5/18-19).

So, originally it was a tight genesis 5/18-9 and now on today's 6Z it is only a broad low with genesis on 5/24 with only a much more believable 1000 mb low hitting FL instead of a 970 mb cat 2 H. Is that even the same thing? Even if it is, that's a massive change in strength and timing. And we still don't know if there will be a May W Caribbean TC at all yet.
Click to expand...
Thats what fun tracking is for :)
 
For the 1st time in many days, the latest GFS (12Z) has no TS+ form in or near the W Caribbean/Central America in its entire run. All it has is a weak low there that at most is a TD and it moves to near FL 5/27-9 as only a weak (1005 mb) low.
 
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