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Severe Strong, slow moving SE storm 12/21-23

SoutheastRidge said:
Are you disagreeing with a pro met who has been forecasting weather for 40 years?
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Blizzard 93 I think from what I've seen and heard was a triple phaser at least and the low was down in the 970s in South GA. pressure layout is entirely different too across the CONUS.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Blizzard 93 I think from what I've seen and heard was a triple phaser at least and the low was down in the 970s in South GA. pressure layout is entirely different too across the CONUS.
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Yea it was a triple P. The track was different, the pattern was different, temp aren’t close, and the MB on this storm is different. Besides that it’s really close.


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b33a8fe93f3c9a19a39626c150eb514d.jpg



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Yeah, this is nowhere close to "making a few tweaks" and it'll be like 1993.

I suppose your argument that you CAN make here though is if the Pacific hasn't blasted some of the cold air off the states and you had an -EPO/+PNA/-NAO, with those teleconnections not being so deep that you're dry, that you could see a very heavy snowstorm from a setup like this. I've read about it before, but I wonder with some of the storms of the past that poured a lot of snow over areas of the southeast, if it was similar, slower moving setups. It actually looks like that with some storms like Feb. 1973.

That Glenn Burns quote even caused me to go look at some reanalysis maps for a minute.
 
I don’t like disagreeing with a 40 year meteorologist, but I just don’t see how this compares at all to the ‘93 Superstorm. That was a system that at one stretched from deep in the western to Caribbean all the way to southeast Canada. Many areas along the Florida Gulf coasts had record storm surges that still stand today, and many cities set record low barometric pressure... including Charlotte which had a pressure a few MB lower than that of Hurricane Hugo as it crosses over. Not to mention the number of places across the south that had record snow followed by record cold.
 
And I thought I was being too hyperbolic by feeling that this storm is like a fall Noreaster, I don't know much about the storm of 93 but taking the snow out if the equation I feel like that storm was way stronger than this will end up being.

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This isn't the historically very strong storm of March, 1993, but that may easily not occur again in our lifetimes. But this is the still strong/high impact storm of Dec, 2019. Completely different animals. Even though this is not a "Storm of the Century" like was 1993, this one is still looking to be a humdinger of a storm in its own right, especially considering it isn't tropical. When was the last time there was a storm to last this long with this much QPF and wind over such a wide area with little or no tropical element? We know this isn't a 100+ year storm like 1993, but is this still a once in several year storm? Maybe a once in a decade? Maybe as much as a multidecadal storm in terms of max QPF as well as total QPF when considering total area covered? When was the last non-tropical storm as wet as this is projected? Any opinions?

Edit: I’m glad I got in a walk this overcast, breezy afternoon as tomorrow and quite possibly Monday will be rained out.

Edit 2: Also, what many inland members may not fully realize is that this looks to have a big impact on some of the SE coast in terms of 1) potential significant coastal flooding at high tides due to a combo of strong onshore winds and very heavy rains; and 2) beach erosion. I bet @Stormsfury and maybe also @Bham 99 are watching this aspect.
Again, this is not at all something seen often though one piece of good news is that we won’t have astronomically very high (spring) tides the next few days.
 
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Yea I got an opinion. Key word is projected. If rain comes in 1-3” less due to moisture robbing and winds never verify then it’s a dud. IMO.
 
Hrrr shows a low topped supercell fiesta in south Florida tommorow with skinny CAPE associated with a tropical airmass and backing SE winds at the surface B0513B64-FA4E-4264-BC71-8021B7F81368.png0BF85730-C717-411A-9E2C-722E669653D2.jpeg
 
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