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Misc Stock Market

Well dang...covered my short at $675 when I saw this. Small win...will take it.

Maybe we do get a Santa rally...huge gap up. NQ up 1.5% in pre-market after closing down almost 2% yesterday at the dead lows. Talk about counter trade...the market loves that. I still think we go much much lower in January...but we shall see.

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IAU Is up 70% this calendar year. I have to pinch myself daily and can not believe my blind squirrel self found a nut. I dumped it all in this fund last fall before the election. was sick an tired of the swings etc. Figured I'd be safe here at a minimum. No clue Gold was headed for the moon. We'd been hearing about it for years and to be fair, it would inch its way up month over month. But Holy mackerel at what's continuing to take place. Silver is another one, just unreal.
 
ForsythSnow said:
This is going to get really ugly really fast when it all comes down. It's pretty much all AI-powered debt
Click to expand...

Mostly, yes. Dig into the report and this number is almost entirely healthcare spending. It’s the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen.
 
ForsythSnow said:
This is going to get really ugly really fast when it all comes down. It's pretty much all AI-powered debt
Click to expand...

To be perfectly honest, it's going to surprise me if we truly have an economic reckoning before the 2030's. There will probably be another AI freakout early next year, the Nasdaq has held OK since late October, but for now the technicals don't look great (the SPX is trying to close at a record again with divergence with QQQ and that hasn't worked out in the medium term at best with this year or a full year with 2022), but my guess is it'll be freakout, not bust and GDP growth will be fine next year.

It'll be fine while young people are priced out of homes and food is still expensive, though.
 
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Will see about next year...I can't shake my bearish bias right now but with Fed starting QE again...lower rates and the fact that Qs/tech hasn't done anything in months makes me wonder whether we rally Jan/Feb, new highs, and then a moderate correction in March-April.

Momemtum clearly lost and I think they are trying to keep things up as high as possible to end the year...so tricky. For now just staying out of the way.

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I suppose there's still some time for it to be invalidated, but technicals absolutely do look like how they have before medium to long term Nasdaq tops post-pandemic.

I did briefly entertain the possibility of this year being Trump v2.0's version of 2018 and 2026 being a cruise control year market wise like 2019, but the odds of that have been diminishing.

I think my base case for 2026 now is probably an annoying SPX +5% gain where it's down at least 12% YTD at some point again.
 
Total clown show....Qs/SPY had huge gap ups and now down on the day. Qs about to engulf several dailys...

I'm mostly cash and have been for a while but I should be all cash....just a terrible market.

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