• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc Stock Market

Well dang...covered my short at $675 when I saw this. Small win...will take it.

Maybe we do get a Santa rally...huge gap up. NQ up 1.5% in pre-market after closing down almost 2% yesterday at the dead lows. Talk about counter trade...the market loves that. I still think we go much much lower in January...but we shall see.

G8dIfU1WYAAlea0.jpg
 
IAU Is up 70% this calendar year. I have to pinch myself daily and can not believe my blind squirrel self found a nut. I dumped it all in this fund last fall before the election. was sick an tired of the swings etc. Figured I'd be safe here at a minimum. No clue Gold was headed for the moon. We'd been hearing about it for years and to be fair, it would inch its way up month over month. But Holy mackerel at what's continuing to take place. Silver is another one, just unreal.
 
ForsythSnow said:
This is going to get really ugly really fast when it all comes down. It's pretty much all AI-powered debt
Click to expand...

Mostly, yes. Dig into the report and this number is almost entirely healthcare spending. It’s the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen.
 
ForsythSnow said:
This is going to get really ugly really fast when it all comes down. It's pretty much all AI-powered debt
Click to expand...

To be perfectly honest, it's going to surprise me if we truly have an economic reckoning before the 2030's. There will probably be another AI freakout early next year, the Nasdaq has held OK since late October, but for now the technicals don't look great (the SPX is trying to close at a record again with divergence with QQQ and that hasn't worked out in the medium term at best with this year or a full year with 2022), but my guess is it'll be freakout, not bust and GDP growth will be fine next year.

It'll be fine while young people are priced out of homes and food is still expensive, though.
 
Last edited:
Will see about next year...I can't shake my bearish bias right now but with Fed starting QE again...lower rates and the fact that Qs/tech hasn't done anything in months makes me wonder whether we rally Jan/Feb, new highs, and then a moderate correction in March-April.

Momemtum clearly lost and I think they are trying to keep things up as high as possible to end the year...so tricky. For now just staying out of the way.

QQQ.png
 
I suppose there's still some time for it to be invalidated, but technicals absolutely do look like how they have before medium to long term Nasdaq tops post-pandemic.

I did briefly entertain the possibility of this year being Trump v2.0's version of 2018 and 2026 being a cruise control year market wise like 2019, but the odds of that have been diminishing.

I think my base case for 2026 now is probably an annoying SPX +5% gain where it's down at least 12% YTD at some point again.
 
Total clown show....Qs/SPY had huge gap ups and now down on the day. Qs about to engulf several dailys...

I'm mostly cash and have been for a while but I should be all cash....just a terrible market.

QQQ (5).png
 
Gonna be fun times for tech stock bears when value stops being scorching soon.

XLK is acting so poorly that it's looking fairly clear it'd be down 0.8-1% if value wasn't up a million percent today.
 
Sold the rest of my NVDA here at $191 today. Sold half at roughly $174 I think a few months ago and now the rest here today at $191. Bought this late 2023 in low $40's. Still mostly cash and won't do anything until we see a sold correction.

NVDA market cap almost $5T...I just have a hard time justifying owning that. But it wouldn't surprised me to see it hit $250 this year...putting it at $6T market cap but would rather have cash right now.

NVDA (1).png
 
Apple stock has more than doubled since start of 2023 while it's only growing at 5-7% per year over that time. I can't invest in this market with this insanity...I don't know how I am going to get back to being bullish and heavy long anytime soon.

I am convinced a reckoning is coming for the market "soon"...but I also know I could very well be wrong and it just keeps going up.

AAPL.png
 
It continues to be very intriguing what may or may not happen in about 600-700 Dow points now because it just looks as if tech has 0 juice left, every rip gets leaned on hard, it just doesn't look as if the picture would be pretty if semi equip wasn't bonkers hot to open 2026.

If the Dow is about to tap out for a period of time at a 10k milestone (which I think can't be ruled out since it did it at 40k), then is tech even going to be able to compensate this time?
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
It continues to be very intriguing what may or may not happen in about 600-700 Dow points now because it just looks as if tech has 0 juice left, every rip gets leaned on hard, it just doesn't look as if the picture would be pretty if semi equip wasn't bonkers hot to open 2026.

If the Dow is about to tap out for a period of time at a 10k milestone (which I think can't be ruled out since it did it at 40k), then is tech even going to be able to compensate this time?
Click to expand...

I can't recall a time where tech consolidated like this...this is nuts how tight this is..and these usually resolve higher. But we shall see...I am not buying any breakout higher regardless.

Screenshot 2026-01-06 at 12.32.53 PM.png
 
KyloG said:
I can't recall a time where tech consolidated like this...this is nuts how tight this is..and these usually resolve higher. But we shall see...I am not buying any breakout higher regardless.

View attachment 181399
Click to expand...

If it actually breaks upward, then I think an early year blowoff move is in play like 2018 and then headaches galore for the rest of the year for another midterm year.

The thing that makes me hesitant and wonder slightly though is small caps holding this strongly. Maybe there is still a chance that last year was 2018 and this year will be a cruise merrily on along year like 2019.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If it actually breaks upward, then I think an early year blowoff move is in play like 2018 and then headaches galore for the rest of the year for another midterm year.

The thing that makes me hesitant and wonder slightly though is small caps holding this strongly. Maybe there is still a chance that last year was 2018 and this year will be a cruise merrily on along year like 2019.
Click to expand...

yeah..2018 was nuts...volatility was insane...expecting the same but a bigger down move sometime between now and May

QQQ (3).png
 
SPY/SPX just won’t rollover and been nothing but selling at $690.

This looks like a rising wedge. We know a correction is coming sometime in the next few months…until that happens I am not touching anything long

IMG_5138.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Encouraging economic news:

GDP UP 4.3%.

Gas prices lowest since 2020

My favorite: IAU up 68% over past 12 months.
Click to expand...

This reflects what I see in manufacturing. Job losses really accelerated in the 2nd half of 2025. Construction is also having a very hard time outside of AI datacenters. Those and healthcare spending are your entire positive GDP right now. Lower gas prices are nice but they're on the back of lowering demand due to less people working and traveling.

1767836065307.png
 
Seems like so many days lately where gains fade into the end of the day. I'd like to hope good Q4 data or earnings could save us, but it has felt very toppy for a while now.

My problem is fear of missing out is stronger right now than fear of the cliff...
 
KyloG said:
Sold the rest of my NVDA here at $191 today. Sold half at roughly $174 I think a few months ago and now the rest here today at $191. Bought this late 2023 in low $40's. Still mostly cash and won't do anything until we see a sold correction.

NVDA market cap almost $5T...I just have a hard time justifying owning that. But it wouldn't surprised me to see it hit $250 this year...putting it at $6T market cap but would rather have cash right now.

View attachment 181388
Click to expand...

I am still holding my AMD position as I do believe, eventually, it will be a $1T market cap. Probably still 2-3 years away though. But a $5T market cap in NVDA was getting a little silly and I couldn't justify holding that position. Glad I sold but wouldn't be shocked if we see a $6T market cap down the road.

Everyone, and I mean everyone.. believes/knows a sharp correction is coming in the next few months. But...trying to take down this bull market won't be easy.


Screenshot 2026-01-08 at 10.14.49 AM.png
 
KyloG said:
Apple stock has more than doubled since start of 2023 while it's only growing at 5-7% per year over that time. I can't invest in this market with this insanity...I don't know how I am going to get back to being bullish and heavy long anytime soon.

I am convinced a reckoning is coming for the market "soon"...but I also know I could very well be wrong and it just keeps going up.

View attachment 181391
Click to expand...

Apple in total free fall...tech is just looking awful. I wouldn't touch the Qs this year.

Looks like a meme stock that bubble burst

AAPL (2).png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top