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Misc Stock Market

I doubt the Fed says they're done hiking tomorrow but unless the US2Y starts selling off again, it's saying that the Fed is closer to done than they may think they are right now at their meeting based on previous history.

Maybe one more 25 in February I believe (thought there was a meeting in January, but I think the next one is February).

Now we might very well stay there until 2024 where the bond market priced a bunch of cuts after Powell's Brookings event, buuuuuutttt the market knows that history says that after they pause, cuts typically come 6 months later.
 
One of the great twitter pumpers looks to be in trouble. ZachMorris. I follow on Twitter to know which names to avoid. Although his AMC call was epic.

$100m in profits.

 
Someone posted a chart about a month ago that showed the S&P bottoming after the Fed pivot every time. If we expect at least a little more WRT rate increases, why should we not expect another decent dip in the S&P that at least tests prior lows? Is there any good reason that we should expect this time to be any different?
 
Powell is doing 50 bps because inflation is still 7.1% YoY. Yes, inflation is slowing but Powell no longer trust models and he believes if he causes a recession he has the "tools" to quickly address it like he did in March of 2020 (his words). He isn't stopping until he sees inflation under 2%. He does not want to be Arthur Burns but wants to be Paul Volcker. wishcasting is not a solid investment strategy.
 
Inflation check
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