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Misc Stock Market

GaWx said:
For those still unaware:

The column labeled “Tariffs Charged to the USA” for each country in the first image below is not really that. It actually is the US trade deficit divided by the imports into US (for each country based on 2024).

Example: China in 2024 imported (in $billions) 144 from US (a good portion being farm products) and exported 439 to the US.

Those came from here:

The People's Republic of China

U.S.-China Trade Facts U.S. goods and private services trade with China totaled $579 billion in 2012 (latest data available). Exports totaled $141 billion; Imports totaled $439 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $298 billion in 2012.
ustr.gov ustr.gov

So, 439 - 144 = 295 trade deficit in 2024

295 / 439 = 67%

View attachment 172290

That’s why the table has 67% for China. It isn’t because China charged a 67% avg tariff on what it imported from the US in 2024 as those were actually only a small fraction of 67%.

How much were the actual 2024 Chinese tariffs on US goods? To give a good feel for this: Crops like soybeans, corn, and wheat comprise the largest category of exports to China. The US was considered a “most favored nation” in 2024. Thus, per the following table, China’s tariff to the US on soybeans was only 3% and on in-quota corn/wheat was only 1%. Granted, these did increase significantly as retaliatory tariffs to Trump’s tariffs last month. Soybean tariffs increased by 10% to 13% and in-quota corn/wheat increased by 15% to 16%. But even those were still way below 67%.

View attachment 172293


This table came from here:

The People's Republic of China

U.S.-China Trade Facts U.S. goods and private services trade with China totaled $579 billion in 2012 (latest data available). Exports totaled $141 billion; Imports totaled $439 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $298 billion in 2012.
ustr.gov ustr.gov

Thus the reciprocal tariff in the top image’s table of 34% on China is actually not a discount and is really much higher than even the increased (early March) tariffs from China on the US.
Click to expand...
Yeah, this is really dumb. Calling trade deficits “tariffs charged” is economically illiterate and a misrepresentation at best. It seems to operate under the assumption that we should have balanced trade with every country on Earth, which is nonsensical.

If these go ahead as planned it will be bad, although this is the era of Trump so I expect them to be walked back to some degree or used as leverage or whatever. Things change so fast from one minute to the next in Trumpworld. I’ll admit Trump has gone a lot further with that tariff stuff than I expected already, though.
 
People forget bear markets exist. We've financialized our way out of them for too long. There is no economic policy that can permanently suspended it. The piper will eventually be paid. Problem is, we don't like to take our medicine. So here we are.
 
The stock market is driven by general optimism (or lack thereof) and today is the loud realization of the market consensus that comprehensive protectionist economic policy doesn't benefit the great majority of industries or consumers. These tariffs don't happen in a vacuum and many other countries aren't going to sit and take it on the chin....they will retaliate and attempt to find new trade partners.

Slapping a tariff on almost every nation, even those that we are currently enjoy a trade surplus with, isn't the panacea to resolve our nation's complex macroeconomic challenges.
 
Rain Cold said:
People forget bear markets exist. We've financialized our way out of them for too long. There is no economic policy that can permanently suspended it. The piper will eventually be paid. Problem is, we don't like to take our medicine. So here we are.
Click to expand...
This will be the 3rd bear market in the past 6 years. Very atypical but market has been a casino and agree , a price needed to be paid. Same with our economy. Going to be a very painful period coming up. I personally think it will be several years before ATH’s are seen again. But market will bottom, when…🤷‍♂️

But after that it will setup for an epic bull run. If you are under 40 you should be drooling over this…investing into and out of a severe bear market is what you want, not at the end of a 15 yr parabolic bull market.

I’m older than 40 so I am actively managing my retirement so why I’m mostly cash.
 
broken025 said:
Part of me wants to just pull everything out of market and put like 15% back in as puts. The problem is it just takes Trump saying just kidding and the market will have the biggest shrek dildo of all time.
Click to expand...
I don’t think we have to worry about that. The layoffs, the spillover into private sector is just being seen. Unemployment rate will be well into the 5’s by end of year. We have a perfect storm for a strong bear market.

And Trump would look like a fool if he said psyche…just kidding.
 
Frankly, I don’t think you’re going to get much “bear markets are healthy” leeway should the S&P drop to -20% and potentially beyond because from the way it would look to a normie, it’d look like the most unnecessary bear market ever.

I’ve already wrote off tech and you can a little with semis acting badly, but it has never been just a tech thing within IWM being in a bear market and SPX equal weight setting its last all time high before SPX and the Nasdaq did.
 
China retaliated...so that's probably the worst case scenario for tariffs. Maybe things try and put in an interim bottom today. I added NVDA for a swing at 96.60....semis had a bid overnight and NVDA was green before the China news. MegaCap been hit the hardest the past few weeks so would think any bounce would be led by them. Not going to get stubborn and I won't carry any swings overnight.
 
Any tax professionals on here want to answer me a quick question about pulling money out of my Governmental 457 retirement account? I just talked to the IRS for 30 mins and barely got an answer Lol
 
KyloG said:
China retaliated...so that's probably the worst case scenario for tariffs. Maybe things try and put in an interim bottom today. I added NVDA for a swing at 96.60....semis had a bid overnight and NVDA was green before the China news. MegaCap been hit the hardest the past few weeks so would think any bounce would be led by them. Not going to get stubborn and I won't carry any swings overnight.
Click to expand...

If this Chinese 34% tariff on US imports to match Trump’s 34% tariff announced two days ago actually occurs, it would mean:

-China’s tariff on soybeans imported from the US would rise to 47% from 3% in 2024. They already had increased 10% to 13% last month in response to Trump’s new tariffs on them then.

-China’s tariff on In-quota corn/wheat imported from the U.S. would rise to 50% from 1% in 2024. They already had increased 15% to 16% last month in retaliation

-Thus I can’t imagine many US midwestern farmers are happy right now.


--This was Trump’s response on TS to China’s increase in tariffs of 34% to match Trump’s 34% on them:

CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!

truthsocial.com

Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!
truthsocial.com truthsocial.com
 
I can't even watch what's going on...I got NVDA on and now raised my stop to $95.90, which would be a small loss. Terrible defeating feeling on what is happening and what is going to happen in coming months.
 
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