That's an understatement lol
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Misc Stock Market
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Based off PCE, if oil remains firm or even...gasp, moves to $75, March is just going to be a one month reprieve on inflation numbers (with CPI especially) that won't continue because goods have flipped from negative to positive.
Nasty daily candle
broken025
Member
Yikes
Dang.
Australia(10% reciprocal tariffed by Trump) says they will not respond to the tariffs but will challenge it by mechanism via the free trade agreement.
I may be liberated from owing any capital gains taxes with these indices movements!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Gonna call it now in as apolitical fashion as I can…
We’ve reached THE modern day top of protectionist feelings in the US. It won’t be at this strength ever again in the next several decades.
And ultimately for all the hoopla over it, you’ll see little to nothing accomplished for it. We’re a month away from business planning and investment being as good as frozen for a while.
We’ve reached THE modern day top of protectionist feelings in the US. It won’t be at this strength ever again in the next several decades.
And ultimately for all the hoopla over it, you’ll see little to nothing accomplished for it. We’re a month away from business planning and investment being as good as frozen for a while.
I'm not worried. And I didn't lose my mind after reading the post. Just say what you want to say, man. No need to be passive-aggressive. We just don't want threads to turn into political debates.
I stay bullish when above weekly ema's...and now it's below I am careful. It's been that way for weeks now. I don't know if market will be as bad as 2022 but the economy will be so it's tricky.
I get yelled at for even hinting at it. I should just learn to shut my trap about that stuff. I will refrain from discussing that....my bad.
That's a lie and you know it. Come on be big enough to address it straight up instead of this childish passive aggressive stuff. Nobody ever moderated one of your comments or even said anything to you directly, period end of story.
What if the tariffs are a negotiating tool, other countries reduce their tariffs and we back off. Does that change anything? I know I don't fully understand tariffs and it's more complicated than just some numbers, but seems to me we pay others should too.
JHS
Member
A lot of them will probably be backtracked before too long for various reasons.
My bad...please stop yelling at me. I had one post today and had 5 words hinting at politics and I've been crushed by 2 mods already. My mistake. I will delete my posts...please accept my apologies.
Lol I'm not yelling dude, keep posting all you want. I'm not even sure where all this animosity is coming from, lot of people appreciate your input
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Only if they are. If they remain for more than half a year expect military action from one nation as their economy suffers further. It's a risky game that also involves shooting ourselves at least once during the process and our economy can only bleed so much due to non-american materials that we can't easily obtain or at all obtain being so limited. I expect the pain to be seen within a week if no country negotiates also due to our reliance and incapability to make instant change to American products.
I don't think anyone denies if they remain for extended time there could be long term pain but seems to be a freak out about speculative scenarios. Maybe let it play out and see what happens. We should've never allowed other countries take our work force, our factories, our technology and kick our butt's for so long. The path we were on wasn't sustainable so time to put us first and attempt to bring it back
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It goes beyond that on why we lag behind. Our infrastructure, way we work, urban and suburban development, and priorities made us complacent. It says something when other countries have better transportation systems including China while we focus on crashing electric cars and taxis. That's why they took over us, we placed our chips poorly and now it's showing. That and our cost of living is ridiculous compared to everyone else.
Even with this if we don't invest our cash properly we won't sustain anything we try to put on a better path. Our complacency will keep us under other countries until we stand up for ourselves and invest and plan better than modernizing nations and Europe.
Shaggy
Member
Depends on how badly other countries need the US. It's an ever growing global market with many more options for the tariffed nations to seek. Canada is already looking to the EU for a better trade deal and if they have options then this being a negotiating tool is a big gamble.
broken025
Member
Haven’t lost this much money in a day in a while.
NASDAQ is down almost 1,000.
Canada retaliated to the 25% auto tariffs by imposing 25% tariffs on vehicle imports from the US that are not compliant in the USMCA.
Chattownsnow
Member
Politics aside, this is a huge over reaction. Long term good for the economy IMO and I’m not at all a Trump guy. I think in the end this will turn out a positive for the USA and our economy. I’m going to be consistently buying into this every week. Take these gifts in the market when you get them because they don’t happen often
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Considering that Israel and Vietnam dropped their tariffs to 0 to try to get ahead and got hit by tariffs anyway based on trade deficits basically, I genuinely do not know what is going to be looked upon as a big, "tremendous" deal to drop the tariffs.
I genuinely think this is it. You won't see populist/protectionist friendly politics be viewed upon favorably after this is over.
I genuinely think this is it. You won't see populist/protectionist friendly politics be viewed upon favorably after this is over.
For those still unaware:
The column labeled “Tariffs Charged to the USA” for each country in the first image below is not really that. It actually is the US trade deficit divided by the imports into US (for each country based on 2024).
Example: China in 2024 imported (in $billions) 144 from US (a good portion being farm products) and exported 439 to the US.
Those came from here:
ustr.gov
So, 439 - 144 = 295 trade deficit in 2024
295 / 439 = 67%
That’s why the table has 67% for China. It isn’t because China charged a 67% avg tariff on what it imported from the US in 2024 as those were actually only a small fraction of 67%.
How much were the actual 2024 Chinese tariffs on US goods? To give a good feel for this: Crops like soybeans, corn, and wheat comprise the largest category of exports to China. The US was considered a “most favored nation” in 2024. Thus, per the following table, China’s tariff to the US on soybeans was only 3% and on in-quota corn/wheat was only 1%. Granted, these did increase significantly as retaliatory tariffs to Trump’s tariffs last month. Soybean tariffs increased by 10% to 13% and in-quota corn/wheat increased by 15% to 16%. But even those were still way below 67%.
This table came from here:
ustr.gov
Thus the reciprocal tariff in the top image’s table of 34% on China is actually not a discount and is really much higher than even the increased (early March) tariffs from China on the US.
The column labeled “Tariffs Charged to the USA” for each country in the first image below is not really that. It actually is the US trade deficit divided by the imports into US (for each country based on 2024).
Example: China in 2024 imported (in $billions) 144 from US (a good portion being farm products) and exported 439 to the US.
Those came from here:
The People's Republic of China
U.S.-China Trade Facts U.S. goods and private services trade with China totaled $579 billion in 2012 (latest data available). Exports totaled $141 billion; Imports totaled $439 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $298 billion in 2012.
So, 439 - 144 = 295 trade deficit in 2024
295 / 439 = 67%
That’s why the table has 67% for China. It isn’t because China charged a 67% avg tariff on what it imported from the US in 2024 as those were actually only a small fraction of 67%.
How much were the actual 2024 Chinese tariffs on US goods? To give a good feel for this: Crops like soybeans, corn, and wheat comprise the largest category of exports to China. The US was considered a “most favored nation” in 2024. Thus, per the following table, China’s tariff to the US on soybeans was only 3% and on in-quota corn/wheat was only 1%. Granted, these did increase significantly as retaliatory tariffs to Trump’s tariffs last month. Soybean tariffs increased by 10% to 13% and in-quota corn/wheat increased by 15% to 16%. But even those were still way below 67%.
This table came from here:
The People's Republic of China
U.S.-China Trade Facts U.S. goods and private services trade with China totaled $579 billion in 2012 (latest data available). Exports totaled $141 billion; Imports totaled $439 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $298 billion in 2012.
Thus the reciprocal tariff in the top image’s table of 34% on China is actually not a discount and is really much higher than even the increased (early March) tariffs from China on the US.
Last edited:
broken025
Member
For those still unaware:
The column labeled “Tariffs Charged to the USA” for each country in the first image below is not really that. It actually is the US trade deficit divided by the imports into US (for each country based on 2024).
Example: China in 2024 imported (in $billions) 144 from US (a good portion being farm products) and exported 439 to the US.
So, 439 - 144 = 295 trade deficit in 2024
295 / 439 = 67%
View attachment 172290
That’s why the table has 67% for China. It isn’t because China charged a 67% avg tariff on what it imported from the US in 2024 as those were actually only a small fraction of 67%.
How much were the actual 2024 Chinese tariffs on US goods? To give a good feel for this: Crops like soybeans, corn, and wheat comprise the largest category of exports to China. The US was considered a “most favored nation” in 2024. Thus, per the following table, China’s tariff to the US on soybeans was only 3% and on in-quota corn/wheat was only 1%. Granted, these did increase significantly as retaliatory tariffs to Trump’s tariffs last month. Soybean tariffs increased by 10% to 13% and in-quota corn/wheat increased by 15% to 16%. But even those were still way below 67%.
View attachment 172293
This table came from here:
The People's Republic of China
U.S.-China Trade Facts U.S. goods and private services trade with China totaled $579 billion in 2012 (latest data available). Exports totaled $141 billion; Imports totaled $439 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $298 billion in 2012.
This the reciprocal tariff in the top image’s table of 34% on China is actually not a discount and is really much higher than even the increased (early March) tariffs from China on the US.
I don't know when/how this all resolves, but AVGO from 250 to 150...down 40%. Great company...tremendous growth. I don't think we are anywhere close to a market bottom though.
One of the worst days I can remember
@broken025 green close? 
Reminds me of covid crash...been hard not buying this dip today but nothing technically says buy on the intraday. Bleeding like a stuck pig all day...but been 7 straight gap downs...a weak gap up would be bearish. Another huge gap down would be better.
I haven’t been watching all day. Did we limit down?
No. S&P 500 is only down 4.20% today, NASDAQ is down 5.67%, and the Dow is down 3.41%.
broken025
Member
No doubt. Buy calls expiring in 3 hours.@broken025 green close?
Keep looking at this and wanting to find a reason to expect some sort of bounce...but, so ugly. Just gave up 550...
I've done so little day trading in my swing account for a couple of months, I forgot how that even works. Sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing.
I want to see $540 hold several days first....
I've done so little day trading in my swing account for a couple of months, I forgot how that even works. Sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing.
I want to see $540 hold several days first....