Steven_1974
Member
So now we were up too much before?
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Misc Stock Market
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
More tariffs on steel this morning. After early green, the markets are red again after the news.
Interested to see how Ontario reacts since they threatened to cut off all electricity into the US.
I haven't done anything....I went all cash in swing/IRA/401k at SPY 600. If we get a flush again today I might consider putting 1/3 back in for 401k but I think we are headed for a severe recession and we are going much lower. We are probably due for a short term bounce but it's not worth getting chopped up.
This to me is worse than 2022 and I think market will be worse than what we saw in 2022.
This to me is worse than 2022 and I think market will be worse than what we saw in 2022.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I don't think many people understand how extreme our inflation really has been. If housing and food are any indicators expect us to come out of it with them halved because correction is needed and it's going to be a huge hit regardless. We passed sustainable years ago.
Based on history I see little chance for overall food prices to be halved from current levels. Even the Great Depression, alone, didn’t see quite that much of a drop. According to the following link, food dropped a total of 38% from 12/1929 through 6/1933:
One hundred years of price change: the Consumer Price Index and the American inflation experience
This article examines the American inflation experience over the past hundred years, as captured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index, and the reaction of the public and policymakers to that experience.
www.bls.gov
OTOH, during the longer period June 1920 til June 1933, which incorporated two severe downturns, that link does show that food dropped 56%. But it took two severe downturns over a period of 13 years to do that. Who would want that?
Regarding overall (not food alone) inflation since the early 1900s, it has been much worse in the US than it was during the post COVID pandemic period per the following link:
Consumer Price Index, 1913- | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Historical data from the era of the modern U.S. consumer price index (CPI)
www.minneapolisfed.org
Highest annual inflation was 1917-20, when it averaged a whopping 16.5%/year! This was during the latter portion of and just after WW1.
Others: 10.9% in 1942 and avg annual of 7.3% 1941-3
14.4% in 1947 with average annual >10% 1946-8 due to postwar inflation as price controls were lifted
1974-5 averaged 10.1%/year and nearly 9%/year 1973-5 during that energy crisis.
1979-81 averaged nearly 12%/year.
In contrast 2021-3 averaged “only” 6.5%/year with the highest annual of 8.0% in 2022 though that period was the worst by far in 42 years.
So, not to minimize its effects since it’s by far the worst of the lifetime of anyone younger than 43, but 2021-23’s inflation was far from the worst as it was only the 6th worst for a 3 year+ period for the US since WW1 and well under 1/2 of the levels during the horrible inflation of 1917-20!
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Good job laying down the law @GaWx .
It's pretty much what I've alluded to. If you want 2019 prices back, you're going to need an economic depression for them.
I've said it previously I think here, but I think the only, ONLY way that isn't going to make many mad involving solving what occurred in 2021-2022 is probably 2 years of 1-1.5% inflation, with wages still growing a lot more than that (near 2.5% maybe), and slow economic growth at the same time.
And maybe that's exactly what we're seeing and it's just getting slammed anyway, who knows, but I do think GDP growth for this Q specifically will probably be 0-1%.
It's pretty much what I've alluded to. If you want 2019 prices back, you're going to need an economic depression for them.
I've said it previously I think here, but I think the only, ONLY way that isn't going to make many mad involving solving what occurred in 2021-2022 is probably 2 years of 1-1.5% inflation, with wages still growing a lot more than that (near 2.5% maybe), and slow economic growth at the same time.
And maybe that's exactly what we're seeing and it's just getting slammed anyway, who knows, but I do think GDP growth for this Q specifically will probably be 0-1%.
NCSNOW
Member
Inflation down Biggly. Main Street Gonna have a good year. Tax cuts coming up this summer.
MVIS my never make me rich or any money lol but it sure has been a ride with crazy coincidences and "dots" over the years..... here's the latest.
www.freightwaves.com
"Oz recently served on the board of directors of MicroVision Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), an advanced driver-assistance systems software company. When Oz joined MicroVision’s board in 2021, the company touted her as a “global business and marketing leader in mobility, autonomous vehicle technology and intelligent transportation systems.”
Trump taps former AV tech company board member for new role at DOT
An autonomous vehicle technology executive has been nominated to fill a top leadership role at the Department of Transportation.
www.freightwaves.com
"Oz recently served on the board of directors of MicroVision Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), an advanced driver-assistance systems software company. When Oz joined MicroVision’s board in 2021, the company touted her as a “global business and marketing leader in mobility, autonomous vehicle technology and intelligent transportation systems.”
Definitely a good inflation print. Combined with the market cooling off over the last month, it increases the chance of interest rates being cut more going forward.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Just dropping this off...
I had figured probably 0.3-0.4 personally, but the better than expected data is tied to the consumer here.
Something to think about and it's probably one reason why treasury rates aren't falling.
I had figured probably 0.3-0.4 personally, but the better than expected data is tied to the consumer here.
Something to think about and it's probably one reason why treasury rates aren't falling.
Yields are telling us whats really happening...I don't want to be the sky is falling guy but theres a reason I am still mostly cash.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It's been a good account for me to look at recently. Probably had a more open mind than me, but he's bewildered at the strategy here.
Would say it's not about tariffs, but it kinda is, with some of it not even being about inflation, more being about "businesses are not sure wtf they're supposed to be doing."
Trump says he will respond to EUs counter-tariff.
Eventually we will get a retracement of some sorts...ES/SPY/SPX bounced yeterday right at 10% off ATH's...so right at "correction" spot. Everyone keeps thinking it will retrace and it hasn't yet...but I am in SPY on swing account and put 30% back in IRA at 565.
ES 5850 would be .5 retracement... a real correction has a B leg.
ES 5850 would be .5 retracement... a real correction has a B leg.
On the dip, I added some to a preexisting managed half stock/half bond account that’s in a trust for longterm yesterday. The other portion of it was already up ~30%. I increased that acct by ~20%. The acct is just a small part of this trust as the trust assets need to be conservatively invested as a whole.
I had owned AMD from roughly 2019 until a couple of weeks ago I sold it at $110. Avg was roughly $30 but now I am watching to add it back...I am tempted to add back maybe 20% here at $99 but I think it probably hits 75-80 and then I would add the full position back.
Anchored VWAP from the 2018 low is roughly 75 so it makes sense.
Anchored VWAP from the 2018 low is roughly 75 so it makes sense.
SPY - weekly chart...total free fall. I am going to add back 20% to my 401k today. Maybe add 20% more at $540 and and 20% more at $520...if this keeps going down. 20% down is $490...and we are probably headed there unless econmoic policy changes, which I don't see that happening. If anything it gets worse and worse every day.
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Real chance the market is down 10% in total by the end of today
NCSNOW
Member
Word on the street, is no payroll taxes anyone making under $150,000 per year. Getting ready to get rolled out.
The 401K NCSNOW shot in the dark Gamble with the 401K from 11 months ago, knows no boundaries. Kylo tell me when to start practicing common sense again and but quality/diversify.
The 401K NCSNOW shot in the dark Gamble with the 401K from 11 months ago, knows no boundaries. Kylo tell me when to start practicing common sense again and but quality/diversify.
*They've already come out and said this won't take place until after the budget is balanced. AKA never...
Major stock index futures are all up nicely with Nasdaq +1.3% leading the indices. I assume this is at least partially related to there very likely being no govt. shutdown (less chaos better for stock markets).
well I should have put some money to work in my 401k but that's OK. I did add a little more back to my IRA so 60% cash there. To close on the lows and then have a huge gap up...makes me think this will be short lived...many shorts trapped and past 2 Friday's the shorts covered hard in the afternoon so they probably just getting out of the way.
I went back the past 5 years and looked at SPY....so the best/safest strategy is to buy the close and sell at open the next day. I picked one of the best bull runs you can get, mid-March covid lows through yesterday so buy and hold technically wins. But, by far the worst scenario is to buy the open and sell the close, that is by far the worst strategy.
Buy and hold over 5 years: 130%
Buy close and sell at open next day: 103%
Buy open and sell close: 26%
From 11/1 - 3/13
Buy and hold since 11/1: -3.44%
Buy close and sell at open next day: 2.60%
Buy open and sell close: -6.05%
Buy and hold over 5 years: 130%
Buy close and sell at open next day: 103%
Buy open and sell close: 26%
From 11/1 - 3/13
Buy and hold since 11/1: -3.44%
Buy close and sell at open next day: 2.60%
Buy open and sell close: -6.05%
I saw a study some time ago that did show on average most market (positive) returns happen between market close and the next market open (gap ups) as opposed to during the trading day.
Oil prices could get testy in the coming weeks. The Houthis restarted their blockade campaign against Israel by firing at ships and firing missiles/drones at Israel (A missile fired by the Houthis at Israel fell short and landed in Egypt). Trump ordered a new military campaign at the Houthis and warned Iran that they would be held responsible for the Houthis attack. He recently posted on Truth Social that any Houthi attack would be viewed as an attack from Iran.
I did end up adding AMD at $99.30, but only 20% of my original position. Having a little fomo here but I really don't think the market has bottom'ed so staying patient.
Market hasn’t bottomed…getting rocked today.
Nothing really to do...rejected right into the 8dema...I have no clue if $540 or $580 is next so just staying out of the way. This looks bearish but not something I am willing to short either.
Can see rejected right into 570...
Can see rejected right into 570...
NCSNOW
Member
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
1Y
40.31%
Unreal!!
Market behaved and FOMC was dovish, realtively, so added a good amount of SPY to swing account and another chunk back in IRA at 563.60
DIA reclaimed it's 200dema and SPY right at it. I don't think last week is the bottom for the next few months but market probably due for a 2 week bounce.
DIA reclaimed it's 200dema and SPY right at it. I don't think last week is the bottom for the next few months but market probably due for a 2 week bounce.
Major stock indices are up 0.5-0.8%. Dow futures are up 226 vs the Fri close.
Nomanslandva
Member
I guess you are paying pretty close attention. This thing is a bit of a rollercoaster.MVIS my never make me rich or any money lol but it sure has been a ride with crazy coincidences and "dots" over the years..... here's the latest.
Trump taps former AV tech company board member for new role at DOT
An autonomous vehicle technology executive has been nominated to fill a top leadership role at the Department of Transportation.
"Oz recently served on the board of directors of MicroVision Inc. (NASDAQ: MVIS), an advanced driver-assistance systems software company. When Oz joined MicroVision’s board in 2021, the company touted her as a “global business and marketing leader in mobility, autonomous vehicle technology and intelligent transportation systems.”
This clearly working...SPY swing from low 560's. I really don't think we've seen the low I expect another low in May/June.
